Ronald Soligo

Tariff Protection, Import Substitution and Investment Efficiency

The import substitution effort will have to be intensified, pacticuiarly in capital goods and intermediate products, like base metals. chemicals, petroleum products and non-metallic minerals ... The scarcity price of foreign exchange should be appropriately reflected to the eCGn:>my so that there is an incentive to use less foreign exchange and more domestic resources. This will call for a revision in the present tariff policy

The Economics of Pipeline Routes: The Conundrum of Oil Exports from the Caspian Basin

When the Soviet Union began to collapse in 1991, the Caspian region quickly attained salience in the international arena, focused initially around suspicions that the region housed Persian Gulf sized reserves of oil and gas. The oil industry’s interest in the area dates from the mid-1980s when Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev first seriously raised the prospect of foreign investment to develop the vast unexploited riches of the Caspian area. Then in 1991, the collapse of the Soviet Union rendered the reserves of the newly independent states of Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan of immediate interest.

The role of inventories in oil market stability

Generally, in many countries, market forces determine the process of setting up inventories and the determination of their size. Producers, consumers and speculators will arbitrage prices so that it will be profitable for someone to hold inventories to moderate fluctuations in the balance between production and consumption—if indeed it is profitable to do so. Similarly, the extent to which producers maintain excess production capacity is a decision made by individual producers based on the profitability of doing so. But in the case of energy commodities, it is reasonable to ask whether the management of inventories can be left to market forces. Arguments that energy is different and requires special interventions reflects the fact that oil, and to some extent, natural gas, is a vital input to the overall economy, and that substitutes are not easily available. In the private transportation sector, for example, there are very few, easily available substitutes for fuels derived from oil. The home heating fuel sector has more alternatives but in the short run, there are significant costs to switching from one fuel to another. The industrial and electricity sectors have somewhat more flexibility where burning of coal or use of nuclear power and other alternatives exist but fuel switching still has significant costs and frequently, logistical barriers. For military vehicles, with the exception of submarines, virtually no substitute is available to oil fuels. It is not an exaggeration to argue that oil is also a strategic resource, essential in time of war.

Economic Change in Russia: 1985–95

Until it is complete, Russia’s transition to a market economy cannot be judged a success or a failure. In the meantime, a relative evaluation can be made by comparing the Russian experience with that of Poland, Czechoslovakia, or Hungary. Like Russia, Hungary has followed a more gradual approach, while Poland and Czechoslovakia chose variants of shock therapy.

Re‐evaluating US strategic priorities in the Caspian Region: balancing energy resource initiatives with terrorism containment

In the aftermath of September 11, US strategy has shifted in the Central Asian region from protecting the sovereignty of the southern post‐Soviet states to ensuring their stability in light of the dual impacts of energy development and the rising threat of Islamic terrorism. Although US–Russian cooperation has made strides, particularly concerning Russian acquiescence toward US and NATO military engagement in the region, geostrategic rivalry and conflicting economic goals have hindered a joint approach to initiatives regarding the regions energy development. While both agree on the goal of maximising Russian and Caspian gas and petroleum exports, US policy is increasingly prioritising Central Asian energy prosperity as a key factor in the regions ability to contain terrorism. Development of the regions energy resources has therefore become a critical US security concern. Yet, by failing to engage with Russia in a meaningful cooperation that could encourage Moscow to diversify its own energy export prospects, competition between the two powers is likely to reduce, rather than improve, the effectiveness of either in offering the Central Asian states the kind of support they need to strengthen their domestic profiles or withstand the incursion of terrorism.

Poverty, Inequality, and Development

Economists have traditionally concentrated on aggregate economic growth to measure a countrys development, but previously they have also considered income distribution performance. In this book Gary Fields reverses conventional approaches by using income distribution as the primary indicator. He examines what is known about the distribution of income and poverty, inequality, and development. He explores the main causes of poverty and inequality and the extent to which they have been reduced by individual countries in the course of their economic growth. Recognizing that conclusions vary with the type of income distribution measure used, Fields proposes that changes in absolute poverty be adopted as the primary index of a developing nations progress and suggests that the growth rate of the GNP and character of that growth be regarded as the principal determinants of the levels of poverty and inequality. This framework calls for new models new data. and new microanalytic techniques in order to understand the results of development efforts. Fields employs evidence from case studies of six developing nations to suggest some explanations for differing patterns of development and calls for development planning founded on a firm commitment to helping the poor.