Ronald W. A. Hutjes

Bridging the gap between atmospheric concentrations and local ecosystem measurements.

This paper demonstrates that atmospheric inversions of CO2 are a reliable tool for estimating regional fluxes. We compare results of an inversion over 18 days and a 300 × 300 km2 domain in southwest France against independent measurements of fluxes from aircraft and towers. The inversion used concentration measurements from 2 towers while the independent data included 27 aircraft transects and 5 flux towers. The inversion reduces the mismatch between prior and independent fluxes, improving both spatial and temporal structures. The present mesoscale atmospheric inversion improves by 30% the CO2 fluxes over distances of few hundreds of km around the atmospheric measurement locations

Impact of reservoirs on river discharge and irrigation water supply during the 20th century

This paper presents a quantitative estimation of the impact of reservoirs on discharge and irrigation water supply during the 20th century at global, continental, and river basin scale. Compared to a natural situation the combined effect of reservoir operation and irrigation extractions decreased mean annual discharge to oceans and significantly changed the timing of this discharge. For example, in Europe, May discharge decreased by 10%, while in February it increased by 8%. At the end of the 20th century, reservoir operations and irrigation extractions decreased annual global discharge by about 2.1% (930 km3 yr-1). Simulation results show that reservoirs contribute significantly to irrigation water supply in many regions. Basins that rely heavily on reservoir water are the Colorado and Columbia River basins in the United States and several large basins in India, China, and central Asia (e.g., in the Krishna and Huang He basins, reservoirs more than doubled surface water supply). Continents gaining the most are North America, Africa, and Asia, where reservoirs supplied 57, 22, and 360 km3 yr-1 respectively between 1981–2000, which is in all cases 40% more than the availability in the situation without reservoirs. Globally, the irrigation water supply from reservoirs increased from around 18 km3 yr-1 (adding 5% to surface water supply) at the beginning of the 20th century to 460 km3 yr-1 (adding almost 40% to surface water supply) at the end of the 20th century. The analysis is performed using a newly developed and validated reservoir operation scheme within a global-scale hydrology and vegetation model (LPJmL)

Effects of Precipitation Uncertainty on Discharge Calculations for Main River Basins

This study quantifies the uncertainty in discharge calculations caused by uncertainty in precipitation input for 294 river basins worldwide. Seven global gridded precipitation datasets are compared at river basin scale in terms of mean annual and seasonal precipitation. The representation of seasonality is similar in all datasets, but the uncertainty in mean annual precipitation is large, especially in mountainous, arctic, and small basins. The average precipitation uncertainty in a basin is 30%, but there are strong differences between basins. The effect of this precipitation uncertainty on mean annual and seasonal discharge was assessed using the uncalibrated dynamic global vegetation and hydrology model Lund‐Potsdam‐Jena managed land (LPJmL), yielding even larger uncertainties in discharge (average 90%). For 95 basins (out of 213 basins for which measurements were available) calibration of model parameters is problematic because the observed discharge falls within the uncertainty of the simulated discharge. A method is presented to account for precipitation uncertainty in discharge simulations.

Biospheric aspects of the hydrological cycle; preface

Abstract The Core Project Biospheric Aspects of the Hydrological Cycle (BAHC) of the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme (IGBP) addresses the biospheric aspects of the hydrological cycle through experiments and modelling of energy, water, carbon dioxide and sediment fluxes in the soil– vegetation–atmosphere system at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Active regulation of water, energy and carbon dioxide fluxes by the vegetation make it an important factor in regulating the Earth’s hydrological cycle and in the formation of the climate. Consequently, human induced conversion of vegetation cover is an important driver for climate change. A number of recent studies, discussed in this paper, emphasise the importance of the terrestrial biosphere for the climate system. Initially, these studies demonstrate the influence of the land surface on tropical weather and climate, revealing the mechanisms, acting at various scales, that connect increasing temperatures and decreasing rainfall to large-scale deforestation and other forms of land degradation. More recently, the significance of the land surface processes for water cycle and for weather and climate in temperate and boreal zones was demonstrated. In addition the terrestrial biosphere plays a significant role in the carbon dioxide fluxes and in global carbon balance. Recent work suggests that many ecosystems both in the tropics and in temperate zones may act as a substantial sink for carbon dioxide, though the temporal variability of this sink strength is yet unclear. Further, carbon dioxide uptake and evaporation by vegetation are intrinsically coupled, leading to links and feedbacks between land surface and climate that are hardly explored yet. Earth’s vegetation cover and its changes owing to human impact have a profound influence on a lateral redistribution of water and transported constituents, such as nutrients and sediments, and acts therefore as an important moderator of Earth’s biogeochemical cycles. In the BAHC science programme, the importance of studying the influence of climate and human activities on mobilisation and river-borne transport of constituents is explicitly articulated. The terrestrial water and associated material cycles are studied as highly dynamic in space and time, and reflect a complex interplay among climatic forcing, topography, land cover and vegetation dynamics. Despite a large progress in our understanding of how the terrestrial biosphere interacts with Earth’s and climate system and with the terrestrial part of its hydrological cycle, a number of basic issues still remain unresolved. Limited to the scope of BAHC, the paper briefly assesses the present status and identifies the most important outstanding issues, which require further research. Two, arguably most important outstanding issues are identified: a limited understanding of natural variability, especially with respect to seasonal to inter-annual cycles, and of a complex ecosystem behaviour resulting from multiple feedbacks and multiple coupled biogeochemical cycles within the overall climate system. This leads to two major challenges for the future science agenda related to global change research. First, there is a need for a strong multidisciplinary integration of research efforts in both modelling and experiments, the latter extending to inter-annual timescales. Second, the ever increasing complexity in characterisation and modelling of the climate system, which is mainly owing to incorporation of the biosphere’s and human feedbacks, may call for a new approach in global change impact studies. Methodologies need to be developed to identify risks to, and vulnerability of environmental systems, taking into account all important interactions between atmospheric, ecological and hydrological processes at relevant scales. With respect to the influence of climate and human activities on mobilisation and river-borne transport of constituents, the main issues for the future are related to declining availability and quality of ground data for quantity and quality of water discharge. Such assessments as presented in this paper, in combination with community wide science evaluation, have lead to an update of the science agenda for BAHC, a summary of which is provided in the appendix.

The scaling characteristics of soil parameters: From plot scale heterogeneity to subgrid parameterization

Abstract The variation in soil texture, surface moisture or vertical soil moisture gradient in larger scale atmospheric models may lead to significant variations in simulated surface fluxes of water and heat. The parameterization of soil moisture fluxes at spatial scales compatible with the grid size of distributed hydrological models and mesoscale atmospheric models (∼ 100 km2) faces principal problems which relate to the underlying microscopic or field scale heterogeneity in soil characteristics. The most widely used parameterization in soil hydrology, the Darcy-Richards (DR) equation, is gaining increasing importance in mesoscale and climate modelling. This is mainly due to the need to introduce plant-interactive soil water depletion and stomatal conductance parameterizations and to improve the calculation of deep percolation and runoff. Covering a grid of several hundreds of square kilometres, the DR parameterization in soil-vegetation-atmosphere-transfer schemes (SVATs) is assumed to be scale-invariant. The parameters describing the non-linear, area-average soil hydraulic functions in this scale-invariant DR-equation should be treated as calibration-parameters, which do not necessarily have a physical meaning. The saturated hydraulic conductivity is one of the soil parameters to which the models show very high sensitivity. It is shown that saturated hydraulic conductivity can be scaled in both vertical and horizontal directions for large flow domains. In this paper, a distinction is made between effective and aggregated soil parameters. Effective parameters are defined as area-average values or distributions over a domain with a single, distinct textural soil type. They can be obtained by scaling or inverse modelling. Aggregated soil parameters represent grid-domains with several textural soil types. In soil science dimensional methods have been developed to scale up soil hydraulic characteristics. With some specific assumptions, these techniques can be extrapolated from classical field-scale problems in soil heterogeneity to larger domains, compatible with the grid-size of large scale models. Particularly promising is the estimation of effective soil hydraulic parameters from area averaging measurements through inverse modelling of the unsaturated flow. Techniques to scale and aggregate the soil characteristics presented in this paper qualify for direct or indirect use in large scale meteorological models. One of the interesting results is the effective behaviour of the reference curve, which can be obtained from similar media scaling. If the conclusions of this paper survive further studies, a relatively simple method will become available to parameterize soil variability at large scales. The inverse technique is found to provide effective soil parameters which perform well in predicting both the area-average evaporation and the area-average soil moisture fluxes, such as subsurface runoff. This is not the case for aggregated soil parameters. Obtained from regression relationships between soil textural composition and hydraulic characteristics, these aggregated parameters predict evaporation fluxes well, but fail to predict water balance terms such as percolation and runoff. This is a serious drawback which could eventually hamper the improvement of the representation of the hydrological cycle in mesoscale atmospheric models and in GCMs.

Entrainment process of carbon dioxide in the atmospheric boundary layer

Received 2 March 2004; revised 7 June 2004; accepted 23 June 2004; published 23 September 2004. [1] Aircraft and surface measurements of turbulent thermodynamic variables and carbon dioxide (CO2) were taken above a grassland in a convective atmospheric boundary layer. The observations were analyzed to assess the importance of the entrainment process for the distribution and evolution of carbon dioxide in the boundary layer. From the observations we were able to estimate the vertical profiles of the fluxes, the correlation coefficients, and the skewness of the virtual potential temperature, the specific humidity, and the carbon dioxide. These profiles indicate that important entrainment events occurred during the observed period. The data were also used to estimate the budgets for heat, moisture, and carbon dioxide. By studying this observational data we find that the entrainment of air parcels containing lower concentrations of water vapor and carbon dioxide significantly dries and dilutes the concentration of these two constituents in the boundary layer. This process is particularly important in the morning hours which are characterized by a rapidly growing boundary layer. The observations show that the CO2 concentration in the boundary layer is reduced much more effectively by the ventilation with entrained air than by CO2 uptake by the vegetation. We quantify this effect by calculating the ratio of the entrainment flux of CO2 to the surface flux of CO2(bc = � (wc)e/(wc)o). A value of bc equal to 2.9 is estimated at around 1300 UTC from the vertical profile of the carbon dioxide flux. We corroborate this observational evidence by reproducing the observed situation using a mixed layer model. The mixed layer model also yields the variation in time of bc. During the morning the ventilation process is more important than the CO2 uptake by the vegetation (bc > 1), whereas in the afternoon the assimilation by grass at the surface becomes the dominant process (bc < 1). This research points out the relevance of the entrainment process on the budget of carbon dioxide in the lower troposphere and the relevance of boundary layer dynamics in controlling the diurnal variation of carbon dioxide. INDEX TERMS: 0315 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Biosphere/atmosphere interactions; 0322 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Constituent sources and sinks; 0368 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Troposphere— constituent transport and chemistry; KEYWORDS: entrainment carbon dioxide, mixed layer model Citation: de Arellano, J. V.-G., B. Gioli, F. Miglietta, H. J. J. Jonker, H. K. Baltink, R. W. A. Hutjes, and A. A. M. Holtslag (2004), Entrainment process of carbon dioxide in the atmospheric boundary layer, J. Geophys. Res., 109, D18110,

Climate Variability and Trends in Bolivia

AbstractClimate-related disasters in Bolivia are frequent, severe, and manifold and affect large parts of the population, economy, and ecosystems. Potentially amplified through climate change, natural hazards are of growing concern. To better understand these events, homogenized daily observations of temperature (29 stations) and precipitation (68 stations) from 1960 to 2009 were analyzed in this study. The impact of the positive (+) and negative (−) phases of the three climate modes (i) Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), (ii) El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with El Nino (EN) and La Nina (LN) events, and (iii) Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) were assessed. Temperatures were found to be higher during PDO(+), EN, and AAO(+) in the Andes. Total amounts of rainfall, as well as the number of extreme events, were higher during PDO(+), EN, and LN in the lowlands. During austral summer [December–February (DJF)], EN led to drier conditions in the Andes with more variable precipitation. Temperatures increased at a ...

Likely Ranges of Climate Change in Bolivia

AbstractBolivia is facing numerous climate-related threats, ranging from water scarcity due to rapidly retreating glaciers in the Andes to a partial loss of the Amazon forest in the lowlands. To assess what changes in climate may be expected in the future, 35 global circulation models (GCMs) from the third and fifth phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3/5) were analyzed for the Bolivian case. GCMs were validated against observed surface air temperature, precipitation, and incoming shortwave (SW) radiation for the period 1961–90. Weighted ensembles were developed, and climate change projections for five emission scenarios were assessed for 2070–99. GCMs revealed an overall cold, wet, and positive-SW-radiation bias and showed no substantial improvement from the CMIP3 to the CMIP5 ensemble for the Bolivian case. Models projected an increase in temperature (2.5°–5.9°C) and SW radiation (1%–5%), with seasonal and regional differences. In the lowlands, changes in annual rainfall remained un...

Forest edges and the soil-vegetation-atmosphere interaction at the landscape scale: The state of affairs

Although the soil-vegetation-atmosphere exchange of momentum and heat is fairly well understood for many types of homogeneous surfaces, the disturbances created by tran sitions of one surface type to another remain to be analysed more fully. This is especially true for the impact which a large transition such as the forest edge has on the average fluxes in a small-scale heterogeneous landscape with forest. Recently acquired experimental evidence appears to some extent contradictory and at variance with conventional concepts.

The Sahelian climate

The Sahel has experienced several drought periods in the past 500 years, however no available records show a drought as persistent and severe as the one that started in the 1960s (Nicholson 1978). Many thousands of people died and many more suffered severe disruption of their lives in the severe phases of this drought (e.g. in 1984). The human dramas and socio-economic consequences resulting from drought-induced famines in the Sahel region have presented a strong motivation for research into the causes of the drought. Ever since, the causes for this prolonged drought have been sought somewhere between two extreme views. One view considers land-surface degradation resulting from population pressure in excess of the region’s carrying capacity as the main driver. This implies the existence of positive land-surface/atmosphere feedbacks mostly internal to the region, and in principle could incite the development of mitigation strategies to reverse the trend. The other view attributes the drought to unfavourable anomalous patterns in sea-surface temperature (SST) in the oceans. This implies the existence of a driver external to the region and by nature beyond human control, and requires the development of adaptation strategies to make the region’s societies less vulnerable to droughts.