Ronald W. Masulis

The option pricing model and the risk factor of stock

Abstract In this paper a combined capital asset pricing model and option pricing model is considered and then applied to the derivation of equitys value and its systematic risk. In the first section we develop the two models and present some newly found properties of the option pricing model. The second section is concerned with the effects of these properties on the securityholders of firms with less than perfect ‘me first’ rules. We show how unanticipated changes in firm capital and asset structures can differentially affect the firms debt and equity. In the final section of the paper we consider a number of theoretical and empirical implications of the joint model. These include investment policy as well as the causes and effects of non-stationarity in the systematic risk of levered equity and risky debt.

Energy Shocks and Financial Markets

This study analyzes the information transmission mechanism linking oil futures with stock prices, where we examine the lead and lag cross-correlations of returns in one market with the others. We investigate the dynamic interactions between oil futures prices traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and U.S. stock prices, which allows us to examine the effects of energy shocks on financial markets. In particular, we examine the extent to which these markets are contemporaneously correlated, with particular attention paid to the association of oil price indexes with the SP 12 major industry stock price indices and 3 individual oil company stock price series. We also examine the extent to which price changes or returns in one market dynamically lead returns in the others and whether volatility spillover effects exist across these markets. Using VAR model estimates for various time series of returns we find that petroleum industry stock index and our three oil company stocks are the only series where we can reject the null hypothesis that oil futures do not lead Treasury Bill rates and stock returns, while we can reject the hypothesis that oil futures lag these other two series. Finally, the return volatility evidence for oil futures leading individual oil company stocks is much weaker than is the evidence for returns themselves.

Common Stock Offerings Across the Business Cycle: Theory and Evidence

It is well known that historically a larger number of firms issue common stock and the proportion of external financing accounted for by equity is substantially higher in expansionary phases of the business cycle. We show that this phenomenon is consistent with firms selling seasoned equity when they face lower adverse selection costs, which occurs in period with more promising investment opportunities and with less uncertainty about assets in place. Thus, firm announcements of equity issues are predicted to convey less adverse information about equity values in such periods. Empirically, we find evidence that generally supports these predictions. Consistent with historical patterns, firms in recent times have tended to increase equity more frequently in expansionary periods. While business cycle variables are significant explanatory variables, interest rate variables are generally insignificant. The adverse selection effects as measured by the average negative price reaction to seasoned common stock offering announcements is significantly lower in expansionary periods and in periods with a relatively larger volume of equity financing. These offer announcement effects are less negative for smaller stock offerings and for issuers with less uncertainty about assets in place.

The Valuation Effects of Stock Splits and Stock Dividends

This study presents evidence which indicates that stock prices, on average, react positively to stock dividend and stock split announcements that are uncontaminated by other contemporaneous firm-specific announcements. In addition, it documents significantly positive excess returns on and around the ex-dates of stock dividends and splits. Both announcement and ex-date returns were found to be larger for stock dividends than for stock splits. While the announcement returns cannot be explained by forecasts of imminent increases in cash dividends, the paper offers several signalling based explanations for them. These are consistent with a cross- sectional analysis of the announcement period returns.

The Effects of Capital Structure Change on Security Prices: A Study of Exchange Offers

This study examines the impact of approximately pure capital structure change announcements on security prices (specifically on common stock, straight preferred stock, convertible preferred stock, straight debt and convertible debt). Statistically significant price adjustments in firms’ common stock, preferred stock and debt related to these announcements are documented and alternative causes for these price changes are examined. The evidence is consistent with both corporate, tax and wealth redistribution effects. There is also evidence that firms make decisions which do not maximize stockholder wealth. In addition, a new approach to testing the significance of public announcements on security returns is presented.

Adverse Selection and the Rights Offer Paradox

We develop an analytical framework to explain a firms choice of equity flotation method and the near disappearance of rights offers by U.S. exchange-listed firms. The choice between uninsured rights, rights with standby underwriting, and firm-commitment underwriting depends on information asymmetries, shareholder characteristics, and direct flotation costs. Underwriter certification and current shareholder takeup of issues are viewed as substitute mechanisms for minimizing wealth transfers between shareholders and outside investors. Uninsured rights create adverse selction effects when shareholder takeup is low. Implications for stock price behavior around issue announcements, shareholder subscription precommitments, and relative issue frequencies are supported by large sample evidence.

Venture Capital Reputation, Post-IPO Performance and Corporate Governance

We examine the association of a venture capital (VC) firm’s reputation with the post-initial public offering (IPO) long-run performance of its portfolio firms. We find that VC reputation, measured by the past market share of VC-backed IPOs, has significant positive associations with long-run firm performance measures. While more reputable VCs initially select better-quality firms, more reputable VCs continue to be associated with superior long-run performance, even after controlling for VC selectivity. We find that more reputable VCs exhibit more active post-IPO involvement in the corporate governance of their portfolio firms, and this continued VC involvement positively influences post-IPO firm performance.

The Supply of Corporate Directors and Board Independence

Empirical evidence on the relations between board independence and board decisions and firm performance is generally confounded by serious endogeneity issues. We circumvent these endogeneity problems by demonstrating the strong impact of the local director labor market on board composition. Specifically, we show that proximity to larger pools of local director talent leads to more independent boards for all but the largest quartile of S&P 1500. Using local director pools as an instrument for board independence, we document that board independence has a positive effect on firm value, operating performance, fraction of CEO incentive-based pay, and CEO turnover. The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com., Oxford University Press.

Repurchase tender offers and earnings information

Announcements of stock repurchase tender offers are examined as a source of information to the market on the firms future earnings prospects and market risk level. We find positive average earnings surprises and equity systematic risk reductions following tender offers but not, in most instances, preceding them. We find positive stock price reactions to tender offer announcements to be positively correlated with earnings surprises over the concurrent and subsequent two years, and negatively correlated with changes in equity and firm market risk. Finally, stock price reactions to quarterly earnings announcements are more strongly correlated with time-series based earnings surprises in the year prior to the tender offer than during the subsequent year, consistent with tender offer announcements conveying earnings information to the market.

Family Business Groups around the World: Financing Advantages, Control Motivations and Organizational Choices

Using a dataset of 28,635 firms in 45 countries, this study investigates the motivations for family-controlled business groups. We provide new evidence consistent with the argument that particular group structures emerge not only to perpetuate control, but also to alleviate financing constraints at the country and firm levels. At the country level, family groups, especially those structured as pyramids, are more prevalent in markets with limited availability of capital. At the firm level, investment intensity is greater for firms held in pyramidal rather than in horizontal structures, reflecting the financing advantages of the former. Within a pyramid, internal equity funding, investment intensity, and firm value all increase down the ownership chain. However, group firm performance declines when dual-class shares and cross shareholdings are employed as additional control-enhancing mechanisms. The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com., Oxford University Press.