Ronald W. Perry

Household Adjustment to Earthquake Hazard A Review of Research

Data from 23 studies confirm theoretical predictions that households’ adoption of earthquake hazard adjustments is correlated with their perceptions of the hazard and alternative adjustments, demographic characteristics, and social influences. However, some findings require modification of existing theories of hazard adjustment. Examination of the methods used in previous investigations underscores a need for better theories, more complete testing of existing theories, and improved data analytic and data reporting procedures in future tests of those theories.

The Protective Action Decision Model: Theoretical Modifications and Additional Evidence

The Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) is a multistage model that is based on findings from research on peoples responses to environmental hazards and disasters. The PADM integrates the processing of information derived from social and environmental cues with messages that social sources transmit through communication channels to those at risk. The PADM identifies three critical predecision processes (reception, attention, and comprehension of warnings or exposure, attention, and interpretation of environmental/social cues)--that precede all further processing. The revised model identifies three core perceptions--threat perceptions, protective action perceptions, and stakeholder perceptions--that form the basis for decisions about how to respond to an imminent or long-term threat. The outcome of the protective action decision-making process, together with situational facilitators and impediments, produces a behavioral response. In addition to describing the revised model and the research on which it is based, this article describes three applications (development of risk communication programs, evacuation modeling, and adoption of long-term hazard adjustments) and identifies some of the research needed to address unresolved issues.

Understanding Citizen Response to Disasters with Implications for Terrorism

Since the September 11 attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon in the United States, the mix of authorities attending to emergency management issues has changed. Traditionally, emergency managers were often their communities’ sole voices that were calling attention to needs for mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery planning (Drabek, 1987). Increased awareness of vulnerability to terrorist acts has both brought more actors into the arena and emphasized the need for coordination among their efforts. Thus, emergency managers at local, regional and federal government levels have been joined by law enforcement, military and policy makers in examining means of combatting terrorism. Much of this work places terrorism in the general context of understanding human behaviour under stress, logically drawing on the literature of natural and technological disasters. There have been calls for information sharing and cooperative planning among all these groups, and policy officials have added their voices to the process (Hoffman, 2001). Calls for such coordination are not new. Emergency managers and researchers have, for decades, emphasized the importance of multiagency co-operation in all phases of hazard management (Dynes, Quarantelli and Kreps, 1972). For that matter, the systematic study of terrorism as a hazard in the United States is also not new; one can minimally trace this work to the efforts of Brian Jenkins at the RAND Corporation in the early 1970s (Jenkins, 2001). What is new is the concerted effort, particularly by policy makers, to make the coordination real and to fund the necessary planning and preparedness measures. In connection with these efforts, another issue also old in origin has arisen: some policy makers and planners appear to have expectations about human response to disasters and terrorism in particular that are not compatible with known behavioural principles and with data on human behaviour under emergency conditions. In particular, apparent concern about citizen ‘panic’ and the possibility of other dysfunctional behaviour suggest that policy officials would benefit from a review of what is known about citizen response to natural and technological disasters, and how that knowledge is likely to generalise to terrorist incidents. The purpose of this article is to review what is known about citizen response to natural and technological disasters, and to extrapolate from that information to describe what might be reasonably expected in connection with terrorist incidents. Certainly there is not a direct translation of results from other types of disasters to terrorist events. Much of the variation will be based in the nature and consequences of the agents used: weapons of mass destruction using incendiary explosives, and chemical, radiological and biological agents. Over many years, the different impacts of specific threats have been studied and it is known that some agents (radiation for example) generate higher and more acute levels of fear than others (Slovic, Fischhoff and Lichtenstein, 1980). Indeed, an often-noted finding from research on the Three Mile Island nuclear reactor accident is that when facing a perceived radiation threat, citizens expressed higher levels of concern and much higher levels of warning co-operation than anticipated by authorities (Lindell and Perry, 1992). The fact that some agents associated with terrorist threats may elicit high fear responses, however, does not negate the utility of a range of research findings regarding human behaviour under stress.

Incident management systems in disaster management

Particularly since the 11 September terrorist attacks in the USA, much attention has been given to the development and implementation of incident management systems (IMS). The IMS is a tool for marshalling pre‐identified and pre‐assembled resources to respond to an emergency or disaster. IMS is particularly useful when personnel and resources from many agencies and jurisdictions are required to manage large incidents successfully. While many IMS have been devised over the years, their use remains intermittent. This paper traces the evolution of IMS, reviews how it can be integrated into jurisdictional emergency and disaster management, and specifies the structures that are used in most incident management systems at the municipal level.

Disaster management : Warning response and community relocation

This book addresses two common problems encountered by emergency services personnel: the design and implementation of evacuation warning systems to ensure citizen compliance with the directives of authorities and the permanent relocation of families threatened by hazards. The authors pay particular attention to the problems of constructing warning messages; to the citizens interpretation of message content; the techniques of delivering warning messages; and the management of citizen movements out of threatened areas. Administrative issues related to variations in compliance among ethnic groups are also noted. In the second section, the authors explore the social psychological impact and the logistical, administrative, public policy, and political aspects of relocation. They elaborate a series of principles of positive relocation general enough to apply to a variety of relocation situations.

The Relationship of Affective Organizational Commitment with Supervisory Trust

Research and anecdotal evidence suggest employee levels of organizational commitment have declined in public and private sectors. The important role of commitment in government recruitment and retention reinforces the need to maintain employee commitment. The literature is conflicted regarding the extent to which trust in supervisors can facilitate commitment. One public and one private organization were studied. Although trust and commitment were not closely related in a direct statistical sense, trust in supervisors has an important role to play in promoting organizational commitment. Employee attitudes toward layoffs and reorganizations were highly predictive of organizational commitment. Credibility, decision participation, empowerment, and feedback were significant predictors of supervisor trust. A trusted supervisor can provide meaningful interpretations of organizational intent and reassurance that the desirable value structure of the organization will be sustained.

Threat Perception and Public Response to Volcano Hazard

Summary This paper examines perceptions of the threat posed by a volcano in Washington State. In particular, interest is focused upon the level of perceived risk, the sources and frequency of information receipt and the level of confidence of the affected population in the adequacy of the information received. A probability sample of 230 citizens was taken from seven communities situated near Mt. St. Helens, Washington, which resumed volcanic activity in March 1980 after a 123-year dormant period. The data analyses indicate that intensive dissemination of hazard information during a short period of imminent threat of disaster sensitized people to the pending event.

The impacts of disaster exercises on participants

There is a prevailing assumption in the research literature that disaster exercises produce a wide variety of benefits that promote effective emergency management. Unfortunately, there are few studies available that confirm this assumption. This paper reviews the role of exercises in disaster management and places them within the context of preparedness activities. Within this context, the links among planning, training and exercising are explicated. The potential benefits of exercises are reviewed and hypotheses generated that link exercise experiences with emergency responders’ perceptions of planning adequacy, training adequacy, teamwork, response network effectiveness, equipment adequacy and job risk. The effects of two exercises – one dealing with hazardous materials and one with medical mass casualties – are examined using a quasi‐experimental research design. The subjects were professional firefighters. Results indicated that successful exercises can enhance perceptions of teamwork, training adequacy, response network effectiveness, job risk, and equipment adequacy. The link between exercise participation and perception of planning adequacy was found to be equivocal.

Population evacuation in volcanic eruptions, floods, and nuclear power plant accidents: Some elementary comparisons

This paper reports a comparative analysis of citizen evacuation response to three different types of environmental threats: a riverine flood, a volcanic eruption, and the nuclear reaction accident at Three Mile Island, Pennsylvania. While there have been numerous discussions in the theoretical literature regarding the extent to which human response to nuclear and nonnuclear threats are likely to be comparable, to date there have been no empirical studies of the phenomenon. It was found that citizen belief in real situational danger and warnings from authorities were most frequently cited by evacuees as reasons for leaving in both nuclear and nonnuclear incidents. Mass media warnings were infrequently cited as important reasons for evacuating, and social network contacts were relatively more important to evacuation decision making in the natural disasters than at Three Mile Island. For both the natural disasters and the nuclear accident, most citizens who did not evacuate chose not to do so because they did not believe that a real danger existed.

Aged Citizens in the Warning Phase of Disasters: Re-Examining the Evidence

While there is a strong consistent empirical literature on older citizens in the recovery period of disasters, there is much less research on how the elderly respond to disaster warnings. Furthermore, there are conflicting findings among these studies, some characterizing the elderly as noncompliant and less likely to cooperate with authorities, while others find the elderly no less responsive than other age groups. The current article reviews the literature in this area and tries to sort out conflicting findings in terms of the timing of the research and methodological considerations. Data are analyzed from nine disasters—representing flood events, volcanic eruptions, and hazardous materials emergencies—which show citizens over sixty-five years old no less likely to comply with disaster warnings.