Ros Eeles

Interim analysis of the incidence of breast cancer in the Royal Marsden Hospital tamoxifen randomised chemoprevention trial

BACKGROUND Tamoxifen, a drug with antioestrogenic effects, is predicted to prevent the occurrence of breast cancer. We have undertaken a trial of tamoxifen in healthy women who are at increased risk of breast cancer because of family history. We report a planned interim analysis. METHODS Between October, 1986, and April, 1996, we accrued 2494 healthy women aged between 30 and 70 with a family history of breast cancer. They have been randomised (double blind) to receive tamoxifen 20 mg per day orally or placebo for up to 8 years. Follow-up included clinical assessment, annual mammography, and assessment of toxicity and compliance. The primary endpoint was the occurrence of breast cancer, which was analysed on an intention-to-treat basis with a survival curve. FINDINGS With a median follow-up of 70 months, 2471 women (tamoxifen 1238, placebo 1233) were suitable for analysis. The groups were evenly matched at baseline, and compliance was good. The overall frequency of breast cancer is the same for women on tamoxifen or placebo (tamoxifen 34, placebo 36, relative risk 1.06 [95% CI 0.7-1.7], p=0.8). Participants who were already on hormone-replacement therapy when they entered the study had an increased risk of breast cancer compared with non-users. Those participants who started such therapy while on trial had a significantly reduced risk. The safety profile of tamoxifen was as expected. INTERPRETATION We have been unable to show any effect of tamoxifen on breast-cancer incidence in healthy women, contrary to the report from the NSABP-P1 study showing a 45% reduction in healthy women given tamoxifen versus placebo. Differences in the study populations for the two trials may underlie these conflicting findings: eligibility in our trial was based predominantly on a strong family history of breast cancer whereas in the NSABP trial was mostly based on non-genetic risk factors. The importance of oestrogen promotion may vary between such populations.

The impact of genetic counselling on risk perception and mental health in women with a family history of breast cancer

SummaryThe present study investigated: (1) perception of genetic risk and, (2) the psychological effects of genetic counselling in women with a family history of breast cancer. Using a prospective design, with assessment pre- and post-genetic counselling at clinics and by postal follow-up at 1, 6 and 12 months, attenders at four South London genetic clinics were assessed. Participants included 282 women with a family history of breast cancer. Outcome was measured in terms of mental health, cancer-specific distress and risk perception. High levels of cancer-specific distress were found pre-genetic counselling, with 28% of participants reporting that they worried about breast cancer ‘frequently or constantly’ and 18% that worry about breast cancer was ‘a severe or definite problem’. Following genetic counselling, levels of cancer-specific distress were unchanged. General mental health remained unchanged over time (33% psychiatric cases detected pre-genetic counselling, 27% at 12 months after genetic counselling).Prior to their genetics consultation, participants showed poor knowledge of their lifetime risk of breast cancer since there was no association between their perceived lifetime risk (when they were asked to express this as a 1 in x odds ratio) and their actual risk, when the latter was calculated by the geneticist at the clinic using the CASH model. In contrast, women were more accurate about their risk of breast cancer pre-genetic counselling when this was assessed in broad categorical terms (i.e. very much lower/very much higher than the average woman) with a significant association between this rating and the subsequently calculated CASH risk figure (P= 0.001). Genetic counselling produced a modest shift in the accuracy of perceived lifetime risk, expressed as an odds ratio, which was maintained at 12 months’ follow-up. A significant minority failed to benefit from genetic counselling; 77 women continued to over-estimate their risk and maintain high levels of cancer-related worry.Most clinic attenders were inaccurate in their estimates of the population risk of breast cancer with only 24% able to give the correct figure prior to genetic counselling and 36% over-estimating this risk. There was some improvement following genetic counselling with 62% able to give the correct figure, but this information was poorly retained and this figure had dropped to 34% by the 1-year follow-up. The study showed that women attending for genetic counselling are worried about breast cancer, with 34% indicating that they had initiated the referral to the genetic clinic themselves. This anxiety is not alleviated by genetic counselling, although women reported that it was less of a problem at follow-up. Women who continue to over-estimate their risk and worry about breast cancer are likely to go on seeking unnecessary screening if they are not reassured.

Intrinsic markers of tumour hypoxia and angiogenesis in localised prostate cancer and outcome of radical treatment: a retrospective analysis of two randomised radiotherapy trials and one surgical cohort study

BACKGROUND Expression of intrinsic markers of tumour hypoxia and angiogenesis are important predictors of radiotherapeutic, and possibly surgical, outcome in several cancers. Extent of tumour hypoxia in localised prostate cancer is comparable to that in other cancers, but few data exist on the association of extent of tumour hypoxia with treatment outcome. We aimed to study the predictive value of intrinsic markers of tumour hypoxia and angiogenesis in localised prostate cancer, both in patients treated with radiotherapy and in those treated surgically. METHODS We applied a new, needle biopsy tissue microarray (TMA) technique to study diagnostic samples from men with localised, previously untreated prostate cancer treated in two randomised controlled trials of radiotherapy-dose escalation. Multivariate analysis by Cox proportional hazards was done to assess the association between clinical outcome, in terms of biochemical control, and immunohistochemical staining of hypoxia inducible factor-1 alpha (HIF-1 alpha), vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), and osteopontin expression. The analysis was repeated on an independent series of men with localised, previously untreated prostate cancer treated by radical prostatectomy. The main outcome was time to biochemical (ie, prostate-specific antigen [PSA]) failure. FINDINGS Between Oct 12, 1995, and Feb 5, 2002, 308 patients were identified from two prospective, randomised trials at the Royal Marsden Hospital, London and Sutton, UK, for the radiotherapy cohort and diagnostic biopsies were available for 201 of these patients. Between June 6, 1995, and Nov 4, 2005, 329 patients were identified from the Aarhus University Hospital, Skejby, Denmark, for the prostatectomy cohort; of these, 40 patients were excluded because the tumour was too small to sample (19 patients), because the paraffin block was too thin (19 patients), or because the blocks were missing (two patients), leaving 289 patients for analysis. For patients treated with radiotherapy, increased staining for VEGF (p=0.008) and HIF-1 alpha (p=0.02) expression, but not increased osteopontin expression (p=0.978), were significant predictors of a shorter time to biochemical failure on multivariate analysis, independent of clinical tumour stage, Gleason score, serum PSA concentration, and dose of radiotherapy. For patients treated with surgery, increased staining for VEGF (p<0.0001) and HIF-1 alpha (p<0.0001) expression, and increased osteopontin expression (p=0.0005) were each significantly associated with a shorter time to biochemical failure on multivariate analysis, independent of pathological tumour stage, Gleason score, serum PSA concentration, and margin status. INTERPRETATION To our knowledge, this is the largest study of intrinsic markers of hypoxia and angiogenesis in relation to the outcome of radical treatment of localised prostate cancer. Increased expression of VEGF, HIF-1 alpha, and, for patients treated with surgery, osteopontin, identifies patients at high risk of biochemical failure who would be suitable for enrolment into trials of treatment intensification.

Balancing autonomy and responsibility: the ethics of generating and disclosing genetic information

Using data obtained during a retrospective interview study of 30 women who had undergone genetic testing—BRCA1/2 mutation searching—this paper describes how women, previously diagnosed with breast/ovarian cancer, perceive their role in generating genetic information about themselves and their families. It observes that when describing their motivations for undergoing DNA testing and their experiences of disclosing genetic information within the family these women provide care based ethical justifications for their actions. Finally, it argues that generating genetic information and disclosing this information to kin raise different types of ethical issues. The implications of these findings for ethical debates about informed choice in the context of genetic testing are discussed.

Early outcomes of active surveillance for localized prostate cancer

To describe the preliminary clinical outcomes of active surveillance (AS), a new strategy aiming to individualize the management of early prostate cancer by selecting only those men with significant cancers for curative therapy, and illustrate the contrast with a policy of watchful waiting (WW).

Psychosocial impact of breast/ovarian (BRCA1/2) cancer-predictive genetic testing in a UK multi-centre clinical cohort

This multi-centre UK study assesses the impact of predictive testing for breast and ovarian cancer predisposition genes (BRCA1/2) in the clinical context. In the year following predictive testing, 261 adults (59 male) from nine UK genetics centres participated; 91 gene mutation carriers and 170 noncarriers. Self-report questionnaires were completed at baseline (pre-genetic testing) and 1, 4 and 12 months following the genetic test result. Men were assessed for general mental health (by general health questionnaire (GHQ)) and women for general mental health, cancer-related worry, intrusive and avoidant thoughts, perception of risk and risk management behaviour. Main comparisons were between female carriers and noncarriers on all measures and men and women for general mental health. Female noncarriers benefited psychologically, with significant reductions in cancer-related worry following testing (P<0.001). However, younger female carriers (<50 years) showed a rise in cancer-related worry 1 month post-testing (P<0.05). This returned to pre-testing baseline levels 12 months later, but worry remained significantly higher than noncarriers throughout (P<0.01). There were no significant differences in GHQ scores between males and females (both carriers and noncarriers) at any time point. Female carriers engaged in significantly more risk management strategies than noncarriers in the year following testing (e.g. mammograms; 92% carriers vs 30% noncarriers). In the 12 months post-testing, 28% carriers had bilateral risk-reducing mastectomy and 31% oophorectomy. Oophorectomy was confined to older (mean 41 yrs) women who already had children. However, worry about cancer was not assuaged by surgery following genetic testing, and this requires further investigation. In all, 20% of female carriers reported insurance problems. The data show persistent worry in younger female gene carriers and confirm changes in risk management consistent with carrier status. Men were not adversely affected by genetic testing in terms of their general mental health.

Predicting the likelihood of carrying a BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation: validation of BOADICEA, BRCAPRO, IBIS, Myriad and the Manchester scoring system using data from UK genetics clinics.

Objectives: Genetic testing for the breast and ovarian cancer susceptibility genes BRCA1 and BRCA2 has important implications for the clinical management of people found to carry a mutation. However, genetic testing is expensive and may be associated with adverse psychosocial effects. To provide a cost-efficient and clinically appropriate genetic counselling service, genetic testing should be targeted at those individuals most likely to carry pathogenic mutations. Several algorithms that predict the likelihood of carrying a BRCA1 or a BRCA2 mutation are currently used in clinical practice to identify such individuals. Design: We evaluated the performance of the carrier prediction algorithms BOADICEA, BRCAPRO, IBIS, the Manchester scoring system and Myriad tables, using 1934 families seen in cancer genetics clinics in the UK in whom an index patient had been screened for BRCA1 and/or BRCA2 mutations. The models were evaluated for calibration, discrimination and accuracy of the predictions. Results: Of the five algorithms, only BOADICEA predicted the overall observed number of mutations detected accurately (ie, was well calibrated). BOADICEA also provided the best discrimination, being significantly better (p<0.05) than all models except BRCAPRO (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve statistics: BOADICEA = 0.77, BRCAPRO = 0.76, IBIS = 0.74, Manchester = 0.75, Myriad = 0.72). All models underpredicted the number of BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations in the low estimated risk category. Conclusions: Carrier prediction algorithms provide a rational basis for counselling individuals likely to carry BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations. Their widespread use would improve equity of access and the cost-effectiveness of genetic testing.

Head and neck sarcomas: prognostic factors and implications for treatment.

One hundred and thirty patients with soft tissue sarcoma of the head and neck were treated at the Royal Marsden Hospital between 1944 and 1988. Pathological review was possible in 103 of these cases; only pathologically reviewed cases have been analysed. The median age at presentation was 36 years, and 53% were male. Four had neurofibromatosis type I, and one previous bilateral retinoblastoma. Six had undergone previous radiotherapy, 12 to 45 years prior to developing sarcoma. The tumours were < or = 5 cm in 78% of cases and high grade in 48%. Only one patient presented with lymph node metastases and only one with distant metastases (to lung). Malignant fibrous histiocytoma was the commonest histological type, occurring in 30 cases. The overall 5 year survival was 50% (95% CI 39-60). Local tumour was the cause of death in 63% of cases and 5 year local control was only 47% (95% CI 36-58) with local recurrence occurring as late as 15 years after treatment. The only favourable independent prognostic factor for survival was the ability to perform surgery (other than biopsy), with or without radiotherapy, as opposed to radiotherapy alone (hazard ratio 0.39; P = 0.003). Only one patient had a biopsy with no further treatment. Favourable independent prognostic factors for local control at 5 years were site (tumours of the head as opposed to the neck, hazard ratio 0.42; P = 0.02) and modality of treatment (combined surgery and radiotherapy compared to either alone, hazard ratio 0.31; P = 0.002). Patients in the combined modality and single treatment modality groups were well balanced for T stage, grade and tumour site. The patients in the combined treatment group had less extensive surgery, yet their local recurrence-free survival was longer. Unlike soft tissue sarcomas at other sites, those in the head and neck region more often cause death by local recurrence. The addition of radiotherapy to surgery may result in longer local recurrence-free survival.

Risks of breast, ovarian, and contralateral breast cancer for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers

Importance The clinical management of BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers requires accurate, prospective cancer risk estimates. Objectives To estimate age-specific risks of breast, ovarian, and contralateral breast cancer for mutation carriers and to evaluate risk modification by family cancer history and mutation location. Design, Setting, and Participants Prospective cohort study of 6036 BRCA1 and 3820 BRCA2 female carriers (5046 unaffected and 4810 with breast or ovarian cancer or both at baseline) recruited in 1997-2011 through the International BRCA1/2 Carrier Cohort Study, the Breast Cancer Family Registry and the Kathleen Cuningham Foundation Consortium for Research into Familial Breast Cancer, with ascertainment through family clinics (94%) and population-based studies (6%). The majority were from large national studies in the United Kingdom (EMBRACE), the Netherlands (HEBON), and France (GENEPSO). Follow-up ended December 2013; median follow-up was 5 years. Exposures BRCA1/2 mutations, family cancer history, and mutation location. Main Outcomes and Measures Annual incidences, standardized incidence ratios, and cumulative risks of breast, ovarian, and contralateral breast cancer. Results Among 3886 women (median age, 38 years; interquartile range [IQR], 30-46 years) eligible for the breast cancer analysis, 5066 women (median age, 38 years; IQR, 31-47 years) eligible for the ovarian cancer analysis, and 2213 women (median age, 47 years; IQR, 40-55 years) eligible for the contralateral breast cancer analysis, 426 were diagnosed with breast cancer, 109 with ovarian cancer, and 245 with contralateral breast cancer during follow-up. The cumulative breast cancer risk to age 80 years was 72% (95% CI, 65%-79%) for BRCA1 and 69% (95% CI, 61%-77%) for BRCA2 carriers. Breast cancer incidences increased rapidly in early adulthood until ages 30 to 40 years for BRCA1 and until ages 40 to 50 years for BRCA2 carriers, then remained at a similar, constant incidence (20-30 per 1000 person-years) until age 80 years. The cumulative ovarian cancer risk to age 80 years was 44% (95% CI, 36%-53%) for BRCA1 and 17% (95% CI, 11%-25%) for BRCA2 carriers. For contralateral breast cancer, the cumulative risk 20 years after breast cancer diagnosis was 40% (95% CI, 35%-45%) for BRCA1 and 26% (95% CI, 20%-33%) for BRCA2 carriers (hazard ratio [HR] for comparing BRCA2 vs BRCA1, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.47-0.82; P=.001 for difference). Breast cancer risk increased with increasing number of first- and second-degree relatives diagnosed as having breast cancer for both BRCA1 (HR for ≥2 vs 0 affected relatives, 1.99; 95% CI, 1.41-2.82; P<.001 for trend) and BRCA2 carriers (HR, 1.91; 95% CI, 1.08-3.37; P=.02 for trend). Breast cancer risk was higher if mutations were located outside vs within the regions bounded by positions c.2282-c.4071 in BRCA1 (HR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.11-1.93; P=.007) and c.2831-c.6401 in BRCA2 (HR, 1.93; 95% CI, 1.36-2.74; P<.001). Conclusions and Relevance These findings provide estimates of cancer risk based on BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carrier status using prospective data collection and demonstrate the potential importance of family history and mutation location in risk assessment.

Mammographic Density and Breast Cancer Risk in BRCA1 and BRCA2 Mutation Carriers

High breast density as measured on mammograms is a strong risk factor for breast cancer in the general population, but its effect in carriers of germline BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations is unclear. We obtained mammograms from 206 female carriers of BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations, 96 of whom were subsequently diagnosed with breast cancer and 136 relatives of carriers who were themselves noncarriers. We compared the mammographic densities of affected carriers (cases) and unaffected carriers (controls), and of mutation carriers and noncarriers, using a computer-assisted method of measurement and visual assessment by two observers. Analyses were adjusted for age, parity, body mass index, menopausal status, and hormone replacement therapy use. There was no difference in the mean percent density between noncarriers and carriers. Among carriers, increasing mammographic density was associated with an increased risk of breast cancer (P(trend) = 0.024). The odds ratio (OR; 95% confidence interval) for breast cancer associated with a density of > or =50% was 2.29 (1.23-4.26; P = 0.009). The OR did not differ between BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers or between premenopausal and postmenopausal carriers. The results suggest that the distribution of breast density in BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers is similar to that in non-carriers. High breast density in carriers is associated with an increased risk of breast cancer, with the relative risk being similar to that observed in the general population. Use of mammographic density could improve individual risk prediction in carriers.