Rosaura Gazzola

Previsões para o mercado de carnes

O presente trabalho tem por objetivo apresentar projecoes brasileiras de producao, consumo, exportacao e preco medio de exportacao para as carnes (bovina, suina e frango). As projecoes foram geradas com a utilizacao da representacao markoviana (espaco de estados) e do modelo autorregressivo integrado de medias moveis (Arima). Taxas anuais de crescimento tambem foram calculadas. As series foram observadas no periodo 1972-2009, e a analise das previsoes visa o periodo 2010-2020. As projecoes dos produtos estao bem ajustadas as observacoes. De acordo com os resultados, o Brasil mostrou tendencia de crescimento em todas as series analisadas. A partir dessa analise, conclui-se que o mercado brasileiro de carnes indica boas perspectivas de crescimento e fortalecimento em termos mundiais, em especial para a carne de frango.....This work aimed to present Brazilian forecasts of production, consumption, exports and export average price of meat (beef, pork and poultry). Forecasts were generated using the Markovian representation (state space) model and an autoregressive integrated moving average (Arima). Annual growth rates were also calculated. Series observed involve the period from 1972 to 2009 and the analysis of the forecasts involves the period from 2010 to 2020. The forecasts of the products are well adjusted to the observations. According to the results, Brazil showed a growth trend in all the analyzed variables. It is concluded that the Brazilian meat market indicates good perspectives of strengthening in world terms, especially for poultry.

The meat market in Brazil: a partial equilibrium model

A partial equilibrium model for the meat market is fit to Brazilian data by three stages least squares. The model is consistent with the data and may be used for simulation purposes. In this context we compare model simulations for the near future with the OECD/ Aglink outlook. To illustrate using the model for simulations in policy assessments, we investigate the effect of a relative increase in corn price on the poultry and pork markets, coeteris paribus.