Rosemary L. Sherriff

Examining historical and current mixed-severity fire regimes in ponderosa pine and mixed-conifer forests of Western North America

There is widespread concern that fire exclusion has led to an unprecedented threat of uncharacteristically severe fires in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex. Laws) and mixed-conifer forests of western North America. These extensive montane forests are considered to be adapted to a low/moderate-severity fire regime that maintained stands of relatively old trees. However, there is increasing recognition from landscape-scale assessments that, prior to any significant effects of fire exclusion, fires and forest structure were more variable in these forests. Biota in these forests are also dependent on the resources made available by higher-severity fire. A better understanding of historical fire regimes in the ponderosa pine and mixed-conifer forests of western North America is therefore needed to define reference conditions and help maintain characteristic ecological diversity of these systems. We compiled landscape-scale evidence of historical fire severity patterns in the ponderosa pine and mixed-conifer forests from published literature sources and stand ages available from the Forest Inventory and Analysis program in the USA. The consensus from this evidence is that the traditional reference conditions of low-severity fire regimes are inaccurate for most forests of western North America. Instead, most forests appear to have been characterized by mixed-severity fire that included ecologically significant amounts of weather-driven, high-severity fire. Diverse forests in different stages of succession, with a high proportion in relatively young stages, occurred prior to fire exclusion. Over the past century, successional diversity created by fire decreased. Our findings suggest that ecological management goals that incorporate successional diversity created by fire may support characteristic biodiversity, whereas current attempts to “restore” forests to open, low-severity fire conditions may not align with historical reference conditions in most ponderosa pine and mixed-conifer forests of western North America.

Ecological effects of changes in fire regimes in Pinus ponderosa ecosystems in the Colorado Front Range

Abstract Question: What is the relative importance of low- and high-severity fires in shaping forest structure across the range of Pinus ponderosa in northern Colorado? Location: Colorado Front Range, USA. Methods: To assess severities of historic fires, 24 sites were sampled across an elevation range of 1800 to 2800 m for fire scars, tree establishment dates, tree mortality, and changes in tree-ring growth. Results: Below 1950 m, the high number of fire scars, scarcity of large post-fire cohorts, and lack of synchronous tree mortality or growth releases, indicate that historic fires were of low severity. In contrast, above 2200 m, fire severity was greater but frequency of widespread fires was substantially less. At 18 sites above 1950 m, 34 to 80% of the live trees date from establishment associated with the last moderate- to high-severity fire. In these 18 sites, only 2 to 52% of the living trees pre-date these fires suggesting that fire severities prior to any effects of fire suppression were sufficient to kill many trees. Conclusions: These findings for the P. ponderosa zone above ca. 2200 m (i.e. most of the zone) contradict the widespread perception that fire exclusion, at least at the stand scale of tens to hundreds of hectares, has resulted in unnaturally high stand densities or in an atypical abundance of shade-tolerant species. At relatively mesic sites (e.g. higher elevation, north-facing), the historic fire regime consisted of a variable-severity regime, but forest structure was shaped primarily by severe fires rather than by surface fires. Nomenclature: Weber (1976).

Climate variability and spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis) outbreaks in south‐central and southwest Alaska

We used tree ring data (AD 1601-2007) to examine the occurrence of and climatic influences on spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis) outbreaks in south-central and southwest Alaska and found evidence of regional-scale outbreaks dating from the mid-1700s, related to climate variability at multiple temporal scales. Over interannual time scales (approximately 1-3 years), El Niño years, combined with severe late-summer drought, appeared to contribute significantly to spruce beetle outbreaks in the study area. Over multidecadal time scales (up to approximately 40 years), cool-phase Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) conditions tended to precede beetle outbreaks, regardless of the phase of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). All sites showed low-severity disturbances attributed to spruce beetle damage, most notably during the 1810s. During other major periods of disturbance (i.e., 1870s, 1910s, 1970s), the effects of spruce beetle outbreaks were of moderate or higher severity. The highly synchronized timing of spruce beetle outbreaks at interannual to multidecadal scales, and particularly the association between cool-phase PDO conditions and beetle disturbance, suggests that climate (i.e., temperature, precipitation) is a primary driver of outbreaks in the study area. Our disturbance chronologies (mid-1700s to present) suggest that recent irruptions (1990s to present) in south-central and southwest Alaska are within the historical geographic range, but that outbreaks since the 1990s show greater spatiotemporal synchrony (i.e., more sites record high-severity infestations) than at any other time in the past approximatly 250 years.

Fire history in high elevation subalpine forests in the Colorado Front Range

Abstract Resource managers rely on knowledge of fire history to guide management decisions, but for the subalpine zone of the Colorado Front Range little information exists on fire history documenting changes in fire regimes over the past several centuries. We examined fire history at 13 high elevation sites in the Colorado Front Range to detect long-term trends that may be related to changes in land use and/or to climatic variability. There is a high degree of spatial and temporal variation in fire regimes across sites; however, most sites exhibit an increase in fire frequency during the 20th century compared to the 19th century. We did not find any evidence that fire suppression after the creation of National Forests and Rocky Mountain National Park in the early 1900s decreased fire frequency at the highest elevations of forest cover in the Front Range. Human influences over the last 200 years have played less of a role in these high elevation subalpine forests than in the lower elevation forests of the Colorado Front Range. In the absence of effective fire exclusion in these high elevation forests, there is no basis for assuming that forest structure and fuel conditions are outside of the historic range of variability for this habitat. Fire occurrence in these high elevation sites is highly dependent on drought, which often results from La Niña events. In comparison with lower elevation ponderosa pine forests of the Front Range, fire is less dependent on increased fuel production following wet El Niño events.

Historical, observed, and modeled wildfire severity in montane forests of the Colorado Front Range.

Large recent fires in the western U.S. have contributed to a perception that fire exclusion has caused an unprecedented occurrence of uncharacteristically severe fires, particularly in lower elevation dry pine forests. In the absence of long-term fire severity records, it is unknown how short-term trends compare to fire severity prior to 20th century fire exclusion. This study compares historical (i.e. pre-1920) fire severity with observed modern fire severity and modeled potential fire behavior across 564,413 ha of montane forests of the Colorado Front Range. We used forest structure and tree-ring fire history to characterize fire severity at 232 sites and then modeled historical fire-severity across the entire study area using biophysical variables. Eighteen (7.8%) sites were characterized by low-severity fires and 214 (92.2%) by mixed-severity fires (i.e. including moderate- or high-severity fires). Difference in area of historical versus observed low-severity fire within nine recent (post-1999) large fire perimeters was greatest in lower montane forests. Only 16% of the study area recorded a shift from historical low severity to a higher potential for crown fire today. An historical fire regime of more frequent and low-severity fires at low elevations (<2260 m) supports a convergence of management goals of ecological restoration and fire hazard mitigation in those habitats. In contrast, at higher elevations mixed-severity fires were predominant historically and continue to be so today. Thinning treatments at higher elevations of the montane zone will not return the fire regime to an historic low-severity regime, and are of questionable effectiveness in preventing severe wildfires. Based on present-day fuels, predicted fire behavior under extreme fire weather continues to indicate a mixed-severity fire regime throughout most of the montane forest zone. Recent large wildfires in the Front Range are not fundamentally different from similar events that occurred historically under extreme weather conditions.

Fire history and tree recruitment in the Colorado Front Range upper montane zone: implications for forest restoration

Forests experiencing moderate- or mixed-severity fire regimes are presumed to be widespread across the western United States, but few studies have characterized these complex disturbance regimes and their effects on contemporary forest structure. Restoration of pre-fire-suppression open-forest structure to reduce the risk of uncharacteristic stand-replacing fires is a guiding principle in forest management policy, but identifying which forests are clear candidates for restoration remains a challenge. We conducted dendroecological reconstructions of fire history and stand structure at 40 sites in the upper montane zone of the Colorado Front Range (2400-2800 m), sampled in proportion to the distribution of forest types in that zone (50% dominated by ponderosa pine, 28% by lodgepole pine, 12% by aspen, 10% by Douglas-fir). We characterized past fire severity based on remnant criteria at each site in order to assess the effect of fire history on tree establishment patterns, and we also evaluated the influence of fire suppression and climate. We found that 62% of the sites experienced predominantly moderate-severity fire, 38% burned at high severity, and no sites burned exclusively at low severity. The proportion of total tree and sapling establishment was significantly different among equal time periods based on a chi-square test, with highest tree and sapling establishment during the pre-fire-suppression period (1835-1919). Superposed epoch analysis revealed that fires burned during years of extreme drought (95% CI). The major pulse of tree establishment in the upper montane zone occurred during a multidecadal period of extreme drought conditions in the Colorado Front Range (1850-1889), during which 53% of the fires from the 1750-1989 period burned. In the upper montane zone of the Colorado Front Range, historical evidence suggests that these forests are resilient to prolonged periods of severe drought and associated severe fires.

Variability in fire–climate relationships in ponderosa pine forests in the Colorado Front Range

Understanding the interactions of climate variability and wildfire has been a primary objective of recent fire history research. The present study examines the influence of El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) on fire occurrence using fire-scar evidence from 58 sites from the lower ecotone to the upper elevational limits of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) in northern Colorado. An important finding is that at low v. high elevations within the montane zone, climatic patterns conducive to years of widespread fire are different. Differences in fire–climate relationships are manifested primarily in antecedent year climate. Below ~2100 m, fires are dependent on antecedent moister conditions that favour fine fuel accumulation 2 years before dry fire years. In the upper montane zone, fires are dependent primarily on drought rather than an increase in fine fuels. Throughout the montane zone, fire is strongly linked to variations in moisture availability that in turn is linked to climate influences of ENSO, PDO and AMO. Fire occurrence is greater than expected during the phases of each index associated with drought. Regionally widespread fire years are associated with specific phase combinations of ENSO, PDO and AMO. In particular, the combination of La Nina, negative PDO and positive AMO is highly conducive to widespread fire.

Proximity to grasslands influences fire frequency and sensitivity to climate variability in ponderosa pine forests of the Colorado Front Range

Thisstudyexaminestheinfluenceofgrasslandsonfirefrequencyandoccurrenceintheponderosapine(Pinus ponderosa)-dominated forests of the central and northern Colorado Front Range. Fire frequency based on tree-ring fire- scar data was compared between 34 fire history sites adjacent to grasslands and 34 fire history sites not adjacent to grasslandsforthetimeperiod1675-1920.Relationshipswereexaminedbetweenfireoccurrence andvaluesofthePalmer DroughtSeverityIndexandsea-surfacetemperaturesfromtheNINO3regionofthetropicalPacificOcean(positivevalues indicating El Nino-like conditions and negative values La Nina-like conditions). Ponderosa pine stands adjacent to grasslands experienced more frequent fire than stands not adjacent to grasslands (P,0.05) owing to proximity to prevalent fine fuels able to support relatively frequent surface fires. Fire activity adjacent to grasslands showed a lagged positive relationship with moist years (positive Palmer Drought Severity Index and positive NINO3) antecedent to fire events whereas fire occurrence at sites not adjacent to grasslands showed no relationship to antecedent moist years. This study illustrates how the presence of grasslands in a ponderosa pine landscape results in increased fire frequency (a bottom-up influence) and also increases the sensitivity of fire activity to interannual climate variability (a top-down influence).

Are Wildfire Mitigation and Restoration of Historic Forest Structure Compatible? A Spatial Modeling Assessment

Abstract In response to catastrophic wildfires, wide-reaching forest management policies have been enacted in recent years, most notably the Healthy Forests Restoration Act of 2003. A key premise underlying these policies is that fire suppression has resulted in denser forests than were present historically in some western forest types. Therefore, although reducing the threat of wildfire is the primary goal, forest managers commonly view fuel treatments as a means to restore historic forest structure in those forest types that are outside of their historic range of variation. This study evaluates where both wildfire mitigation and restoration of historic forest structure are potentially needed in the ponderosa pine–dominated montane forest zone of Boulder County, Colorado. Two spatial models were overlain: a model of potential fireline intensity and a model of historic fire frequency. The overlay was then aggregated by land management classes. Contrary to current assumptions, results of this study indicate that both wildfire mitigation and restoration of historic forest structure are needed in only a small part of the study area, primarily at low elevations. Furthermore, little of this land is located on Forest Service land where most of the current thinning projects are taking place. We question the validity of thinning as a means both to reduce the threat of wildfire and to restore historic forest structure in the absence of site-specific data collection on past and present landscape conditions.

Managing bark beetle impacts on ecosystems and society: priority questions to motivate future research

Summary 1. Recent bark beetle outbreaks in North America and Europe have impacted forested landscapes and the provisioning of critical ecosystem services. The scale and intensity of many recent outbreaks are widely believed to be unprecedented. 2. The effects of bark beetle outbreaks on ecosystems are often measured in terms of area affected, host tree mortality rates, and alterations to forest structure and composition. 3. Impacts to human systems focus on changes in property valuation, infrastructure damage from falling trees, landscape aesthetics, and the quality and quantity of timber and water resources. 4. To advance our understanding of bark beetle impacts, we assembled a team of ecologists, land managers and social scientists to participate in a research prioritization workshop. 5. Synthesis and applications. We identified 25 key questions by using an established methodology to identify priorities for research into the impacts of bark beetles. Our efforts emphasize the need to improve outbreak monitoring and detection, educate the public on the ecological role of bark beetles, and develop integrated metrics that facilitate comparison of ecosystem services across sites.