Jeffrey A. Hicke

Cross-scale Drivers of Natural Disturbances Prone to Anthropogenic Amplification: The Dynamics of Bark Beetle Eruptions

ABSTRACT Biome-scale disturbances by eruptive herbivores provide valuable insights into species interactions, ecosystem function, and impacts of global change. We present a conceptual framework using one system as a model, emphasizing interactions across levels of biological hierarchy and spatiotemporal scales. Bark beetles are major natural disturbance agents in western North American forests. However, recent bark beetle population eruptions have exceeded the frequencies, impacts, and ranges documented during the previous 125 years. Extensive host abundance and susceptibility, concentrated beetle density, favorable weather, optimal symbiotic associations, and escape from natural enemies must occur jointly for beetles to surpass a series of thresholds and exert widespread disturbance. Opposing feedbacks determine qualitatively distinct outcomes at junctures at the biochemical through landscape levels. Eruptions occur when key thresholds are surpassed, prior constraints cease to exert influence, and positive feedbacks amplify across scales. These dynamics are bidirectional, as landscape features influence how lower-scale processes are amplified or buffered. Climate change and reduced habitat heterogeneity increase the likelihood that key thresholds will be exceeded, and may cause fundamental regime shifts. Systems in which endogenous feedbacks can dominate after external forces foster the initial breach of thresholds appear particularly sensitive to anthropogenic perturbations.

Climate Change and Bark Beetles of the Western United States and Canada: Direct and Indirect Effects

Climatic changes are predicted to significantly affect the frequency and severity of disturbances that shape forest ecosystems. We provide a synthesis of climate change effects on native bark beetles, important mortality agents of conifers in western North America. Because of differences in temperature-dependent life-history strategies, including cold-induced mortality and developmental timing, responses to warming will differ among and within bark beetle species. The success of bark beetle populations will also be influenced indirectly by the effects of climate on community associates and host-tree vigor, although little information is available to quantify these relationships. We used available population models and climate forecasts to explore the responses of two eruptive bark beetle species. Based on projected warming, increases in thermal regimes conducive to population success are predicted for Dendroctonus rufipennis (Kirby) and Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins, although there is considerable spatial and temporal variability. These predictions from population models suggest a movement of temperature suitability to higher latitudes and elevations and identify regions with a high potential for bark beetle outbreaks and associated tree mortality in the coming century.

Simulating the Impacts of Disturbances on Forest Carbon Cycling in North America: Processes, Data, Models, and Challenges

[1] Forest disturbances greatly alter the carbon cycle at various spatial and temporal scales. It is critical to understand disturbance regimes and their impacts to better quantify regional and global carbon dynamics. This review of the status and major challenges in representing the impacts of disturbances in modeling the carbon dynamics across North America revealed some major advances and challenges. First, significant advances have been made in representation, scaling, and characterization of disturbances that should be included in regional modeling efforts. Second, there is a need to develop effective and comprehensive process‐based procedures and algorithms to quantify the immediate and long‐term impacts of disturbances on ecosystem succession, soils, microclimate, and cycles of carbon, water, and nutrients. Third, our capability to simulate the occurrences and severity of disturbances is very limited. Fourth, scaling issues have rarely been addressed in continental scale model applications. It is not fully understood which finer scale processes and properties need to be scaled to coarser spatial and temporal scales. Fifth, there are inadequate databases on disturbances at the continental scale to support the quantification of their effects on the carbon balance in North America. Finally, procedures are needed to quantify the uncertainty of model inputs, model parameters, and model structures, and thus to estimate their impacts on overall model uncertainty. Working together, the scientific community interested in disturbance and its impacts can identify the most uncertain issues surrounding the role of disturbance in the North American carbon budget and develop working hypotheses to reduce the uncertainty.

Spatiotemporal patterns of observed bark beetle‐caused tree mortality in British Columbia and the western United States

Outbreaks of aggressive bark beetle species cause widespread tree mortality, affecting timber production, wildlife habitat, wildfire, forest composition and structure, biogeochemical cycling, and biogeophysical processes. As a result, agencies responsible for forest management in the United States and British Columbia conduct aerial surveys to map these forest disturbances. Here we combined aerial surveys from British Columbia (2001 2010) and the western conterminous United States (1997-2010), produced 1-km2 grids of the area of crown mortality from bark beetle attack, and analyzed spatial and temporal patterns. We converted aerial-survey polygon data for each combination of host type and bark beetle species available in the western United States, and for each bark beetle species available in British Columbia. We converted affected area (which includes live and killed trees) to mortality area (crown area of killed trees) using species-specific crown diameters and the number (U.S.) or percentage (British Columbia) of killed trees. In the United States we also produced an upper estimate of mortality area by forcing the mortality area to match that from high-resolution imagery in Idaho, Colorado, and New Mexico. Resulting adjustment factors of 3.7-20.9 illustrate the underestimate of mortality by the U.S. aerial surveys. The upper estimate, which we suggest is more realistic, better matched the spatial patterns and severity of the British Columbia mortality area. Cumulative mortality area from all bark beetles was 5.46 Mha in British Columbia in 2001-2010 and 0.47-5.37 Mha (lower and upper estimate) in the western conterminous United States during 1997-2010. We note that we report year of detection here; studies that consider year of tree mortality should shift the time series back one year. We conclude by discussing uses and limitations of these data in ecological studies, including uncertainties associated with assumptions in the methods, lack of complete coverage by surveys, and the subjective nature of the survey databases.

Consequences of climate change for biotic disturbances in North American forests

About one-third of North America is forested. These forests are of incalculable value to human society in terms of harvested resources and ecosystem services and are sensitive to disturbance regimes. Epidemics of forest insects and diseases are the dominant sources of disturbance to North American forests. Here we review current understanding of climatic effects on the abundance of forest insects and diseases in North America, and of the ecological and socioeconomic impacts of biotic disturbances. We identified 27 insects (6 nonindigenous) and 22 diseases (9 nonindigenous) that are notable agents of disturbance in North American forests. The distribution and abundance of forest insects and pathogens respond rapidly to climatic variation due to their physiological sensitivity to temperature, high mobility, short generation times, and high reproductive potential. Additionally, climate affects tree defenses, tree tolerance, and community interactions involving enemies, competitors, and mutualists of insects ...

Tree mortality from drought, insects, and their interactions in a changing climate

Climate change is expected to drive increased tree mortality through drought, heat stress, and insect attacks, with manifold impacts on forest ecosystems. Yet, climate-induced tree mortality and biotic disturbance agents are largely absent from process-based ecosystem models. Using data sets from the western USA and associated studies, we present a framework for determining the relative contribution of drought stress, insect attack, and their interactions, which is critical for modeling mortality in future climates. We outline a simple approach that identifies the mechanisms associated with two guilds of insects - bark beetles and defoliators - which are responsible for substantial tree mortality. We then discuss cross-biome patterns of insect-driven tree mortality and draw upon available evidence contrasting the prevalence of insect outbreaks in temperate and tropical regions. We conclude with an overview of tools and promising avenues to address major challenges. Ultimately, a multitrophic approach that captures tree physiology, insect populations, and tree-insect interactions will better inform projections of forest ecosystem responses to climate change.

Cascading impacts of bark beetle‐caused tree mortality on coupled biogeophysical and biogeochemical processes

Recent, large-scale outbreaks of bark beetle infestations have affected millions of hectares of forest in western North America, covering an area similar in size to that impacted by fire. Bark beetles kill host trees in affected areas, thereby altering water supply, carbon storage, and nutrient cycling in forests; for example, the timing and amount of snow melt may be substantially modified following bark beetle infestation, which impacts water resources for many western US states. The quality of water from infested forests may also be diminished as a result of increased nutrient export. Understanding the impacts of bark beetle outbreaks on forest ecosystems is therefore important for resource management. Here, we develop a conceptual framework of the impacts on coupled biogeophysical and biogeochemical processes following a mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreak in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Douglas var latifolia) forests in the weeks to decades after an infestation, and highlight fu...

Observations and assessment of forest carbon dynamics following disturbance in North America

Disturbance processes of various types substantially modify ecosystem carbon dynamics both temporally and spatially, and constitute a fundamental part of larger landscape-level dynamics. Forests typically lose carbon for several years to several decades following severe disturbance, but our understanding of the duration and dynamics of post-disturbance forest carbon fluxes remains limited. Here we capitalize on a recent North American Carbon Program disturbance synthesis to discuss techniques and future work needed to better understand carbon dynamics after forest disturbance. Specifically, this paper addresses three topics: (1) the history, spatial distribution, and characteristics of different types of disturbance (in particular fire, insects, and harvest) in North America; (2) the integrated measurements and experimental designs required to quantify forest carbon dynamics in the years and decades after disturbance, as presented in a series of case studies; and (3) a synthesis of the greatest uncertainties spanning these studies, as well as the utility of multiple types of observations (independent but mutually constraining data) in understanding their dynamics. The case studies—in the southeast U.S., central boreal Canada, U.S. Rocky Mountains, and Pacific Northwest—explore how different measurements can be used to constrain and understand carbon dynamics in regrowing forests, with the most important measurements summarized for each disturbance type. We identify disturbance severity and history as key but highly uncertain factors driving post-disturbance carbon source-sink dynamics across all disturbance types. We suggest that imaginative, integrative analyses using multiple lines of evidence, increased measurement capabilities, shared models and online data sets, and innovative numerical algorithms hold promise for improved understanding and prediction of carbon dynamics in disturbance-prone forests.

Large fires as agents of ecological diversity in the North American boreal forest

The present study undertook a hierarchical analysis of the variability within and among some individual fire events in the boreal ecozones of Canada and Alaska. When stratified by ecozone, differences in the spatial and temporal distribution of wildfires were observed in the Canadian Large Fire Data Base that reflect climatic, terrain and land-use differences across the country. Remote-sensing data collected before and after boreal forest fires permitted a rigorous analysis of the variability in burn severity within individual fire events, and the identification of certain fire-prone and more fire-resistant land-cover types. The occurrence of fire skips or islands was related to the distribution of those cover types, resulting in proportionally more unburned area within the perimeter of a burn for larger fires. Differences in burn severity led to differences in post-burn vegetation response of tree, shrub and moss layers that can persist for decades or even centuries. As a result, there can be considerable variability in the survival, density and distribution of residual biota and organic materials. This variability creates a range of post-fire vegetation patterns and contributes much to the habitat diversity of boreal landscapes.

Global satellite monitoring of climate-induced vegetation disturbances

Terrestrial disturbances are accelerating globally, but their full impact is not quantified because we lack an adequate monitoring system. Remote sensing offers a means to quantify the frequency and extent of disturbances globally. Here, we review the current application of remote sensing to this problem and offer a framework for more systematic analysis in the future. We recommend that any proposed monitoring system should not only detect disturbances, but also be able to: identify the proximate cause(s); integrate a range of spatial scales; and, ideally, incorporate process models to explain the observed patterns and predicted trends in the future. Significant remaining challenges are tied to the ecology of disturbances. To meet these challenges, more effort is required to incorporate ecological principles and understanding into the assessments of disturbance worldwide.