Rosnalini Mansor

The effect of interval length in weighted subsethood fuzzy time series

Fuzzy time series has received increasing intentions since the first definition of fuzzy time series was introduced in 1993 by Song and Chissom. Then many studies proposed new fuzzy time series models. One of the steps in developing fuzzy time series model is partitioning the universe of discourse into different lengths of intervals. However, the performance of fuzzy time series model can be affected by interval length factor. Therefore, the objective of this study is to investigate the performance of Weighted Subsethood fuzzy time series model with different lengths of interval. By using the familiar data in fuzzy time series study, the historical enrollments of University of Alabama data, seven different number of interval cases were generated. The results show that partitioning the data into four intervals has the minimum forecasting error.

The framework of weighted subset-hood Mamdani fuzzy rule based system rule extraction (MFRBS-WSBA) for forecasting electricity load demand

Fuzzy rules are very important elements that should be taken consideration seriously when applying any fuzzy system. This paper proposes the framework of Mamdani Fuzzy Rule-based System with Weighted Subset-hood Based Algorithm (MFRBS-WSBA) in the fuzzy rule extraction for electricity load demand forecasting. The framework consist of six main steps: (1) Data Collection and Selection; (2) Preprocessing Data; (3) Variables Selection; (4) Fuzzy Model; (5) Comparison with Other FIS and (6) Performance Evaluation. The objective of this paper is to show the fourth step in the framework which applied the new electricity load forecasting rule extraction by WSBA method. Electricity load demand in Malaysia data is used as numerical data in this framework. These preliminary results show that the WSBA method can be one of alternative methods to extract fuzzy rules for forecast electricity load demand

Performance of fuzzy approach in Malaysia short-term electricity load forecasting

Many activities such as economic, education and manafucturing would paralyse with limited supply of electricity but surplus contribute to high operating cost. Therefore electricity load forecasting is important in order to avoid shortage or excess. Previous finding showed festive celebration has effect on short-term electricity load forecasting. Being a multi culture country Malaysia has many major festive celebrations such as Eidul Fitri, Chinese New Year and Deepavali but they are moving holidays due to non-fixed dates on the Gregorian calendar. This study emphasis on the performance of fuzzy approach in forecasting electricity load when considering the presence of moving holidays. Autoregressive Distributed Lag model was estimated using simulated data by including model simplification concept (manual or automatic), day types (weekdays or weekend), public holidays and lags of electricity load. The result indicated that day types, public holidays and several lags of electricity load were significant in t...

Rating competitors before tournament starts: How it's affecting team progression in a soccer tournament

In professional sporting events, rating competitors before tournament start is a well-known approach to distinguish the favorite team and the weaker teams. Various methodologies are used to rate competitors. In this paper, we explore four ways to rate competitors; least squares rating, maximum likelihood strength ratio, standing points in large round robin simulation and previous league rank position. The tournament metric we used to evaluate different types of rating approach is tournament outcome characteristics measure. The tournament outcome characteristics measure is defined by the probability that a particular team in the top 100q pre-tournament rank percentile progress beyond round R, for all q and R. Based on simulation result, we found that different rating approach produces different effect to the team. Our simulation result shows that from eight teams participate in knockout standard seeding, Perak has highest probability to win for tournament that use the least squares rating approach, PKNS has highest probability to win using the maximum likelihood strength ratio and the large round robin simulation approach, while Perak has the highest probability to win a tournament using previous league season approach.