Ruben Huele

Dynamic substance flow analysis: the delaying mechanism of stocks, with the case of PVC in Sweden

Abstract Today’s stocks are tomorrow’s emissions and waste flows. As a result of the time lag introduced by the buffering function of the stock of materials and products in society environmental problem flows which seem to be under control can easily rebound. In this paper an example is given of how signal processing can be used in dynamic Substance Flow Analysis for estimating the future generation of waste and emissions from present societal stocks. An approach is outlined to estimate the outflow of waste products from stocks on the basis of assumptions on the shape of the distribution describing the inflow of new products, the average life span of the products, and the life-span distribution. To exemplify the approach we used a theoretical case of PVC in Sweden. It was found that the delaying mechanisms of the stocks can make the outcome counterintuitive. Furthermore, the chosen shape of the input-distribution function has the most influence on the predicted outflows, especially in the case of possible fashion-type (exponentially increasing) markets. The choice of the shape of the inflow distribution could, therefore, be based on qualitative knowledge of the market of the different products. The life-span distribution appears to have a more subtle influence on the height of the peaks and the time that they occur. So far only a normal distribution has been considered; more research is recommended into other types of distribution.

Predicting future emissions based on characteristics of stocks

Abstract Future flows of emissions and waste from society to the environment can be estimated either as a percentage of the future stock or as a delayed input. The first approach is based on a static model where concentration is the driving force and is generally preferable for ease of calculation. The second approach is based on a dynamic model, where ageing is the driving force and knowledge of the life span is needed. We present the conditions under which the calculations based on a static model will produce acceptable approximations for a dynamic system.

Substance flows through the economy and environment of a region : Part II: Modelling.

In the tradition of the study of materials flows through society, the Substance Flow Analysis (SFA) method and its software tool SFINX are presented. SFA aims at providing the relevant information for a country’s overall management strategy regarding single substances or coherent groups of substances. Three modelling techniques and their possibilities and limitations are discussed: Bookkeeping, static modelling, and dynamic modelling. The computer program SFINX can be used for varoius purposes: (1) to obtain an overview of stocks and flows of a substance in, out and through a nation’s economy and environment for a specific year, (2) to trace the origins of specific pollution problems, and (3) to estimate the effectiveness of certain abatement measures. Each application has its own requirements with regard to data and modelling.

Substance flows through the economy and environment of a region: Part I: Systems definition

In the tradition of the study of materials flows through society, the Substance Flow Analysis (SFA) method is presented. SFA aims at providing the relevant information for a country’s overall management strategy regarding single substances or coherent groups of substances. This article is dedicated to the presentation of a threestep general framework for SFA-type studies, and elaborates on its first step the systems definition. Attention is given to the definition of the external and internal system boundaries, the categorization of the system’s elements, aspects of materials choice, time, and space, and how these depend on the aim of the conducted study. Moreover, a broader discussion is started on the need for standardization of materials flow studies in general.

Comparison of Two Computer-Assisted Photo-Identification Methods Applied to Sperm Whales (Physeter macrocephalus)

Two computer-assisted photo-identification methods for sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus), namely the Highlight method (Whitehead, 1990) and the Europhlukes method (based on Huele et al., 2000), were compared. Performance was measured in terms of speed and accuracy. A test set was constructed containing two photographs of each of 296 individuals. The test set was divided into three classes of photographic quality and three classes of pattern distinctiveness. Both programs met requirements for rapid matching; the mean extraction times were 74.2 and 90.1 s per image for the Highlight and the Europhlukes methods, respectively. The two methods performed similarly with respect to accuracy. Accuracy improved by using higher-quality photographs or photographs representing more distinctive flukes. Still, even when using only the higher-quality photographs, 12.4% of the matches were not included in the top nine of the list of potential matches by the Highlight method compared to 14.0% for the Europhlukes method. The rate of failure to find the true match in the top nine was only 3.3% when both methods were used together, however. It is, therefore, recommended that for improved matching, both methods should be used in tandem or that an integrated program, which combines the two methods, should be developed.

Substance flows through the economy and environment of a region : Part I: Systems definition; Part II: Modelling.

In the tradition of the study of materials flows through society, the Substance Flow Analysis (SFA) method and its software tool SFINX are presented. SFA aims at providing the relevant information for a country’s overall management strategy regarding single substances or coherent groups of substances. Three modelling techniques and their possibilities and limitations are discussed: Bookkeeping, static modelling, and dynamic modelling. The computer program SFINX can be used for varoius purposes: (1) to obtain an overview of stocks and flows of a substance in, out and through a nation’s economy and environment for a specific year, (2) to trace the origins of specific pollution problems, and (3) to estimate the effectiveness of certain abatement measures. Each application has its own requirements with regard to data and modelling.

Spy plots: A Method for Visualising the Structure of LCA Data Bases*

As data bases used in LCA are relatively large, it is generally not easy to form an opinion on its structure. A method of analysis for LCA data bases was developed to gain insight in this structure.With the proposed analysis, a number of empty processes and emissions were found. Also a number of identical processes have been traced. It is concluded that the method of analysis forms a first step of a technique for finding errors in LCA data bases.

Substance flows through the economy and environment of a region: Part I: Systems definition(ESPR 2 (2) 90–96 (1995) Part II: Modelling(ESPR 2 (3) 137–144 (1995)

Part I: AbstractIn the tradition of the study of materials flows through society, the Substance Flow Analysis (SFA) method is presented. SFA aims at providing the relevant information for a country’s overall management strategy regarding single substances or coherent groups of substances. This article is dedicated to the presentation of a threestep general framework for SFA-type studies, and elaborates on its first step the systems definition. Attention is given to the definition of the external and internal system boundaries, the categorization of the system’s elements, aspects of materials choice, time, and space, and how these depend on the aim of the conducted study. Moreover, a broader discussion is started on the need for standardization of materials flow studies in general.Part II: AbstractIn the tradition of the study of materials flows through society, the Substance Flow Analysis (SFA) method and its software tool SFINX are presented. SFA aims at providing the relevant information for a country’s overall management strategy regarding single substances or coherent groups of substances. Three modelling techniques and their possibilities and limitations are discussed: Bookkeeping, static modelling, and dynamic modelling. The computer program SFINX can be used for varoius purposes: (1) to obtain an overview of stocks and flows of a substance in, out and through a nation’s economy and environment for a specific year, (2) to trace the origins of specific pollution problems, and (3) to estimate the effectiveness of certain abatement measures. Each application has its own requirements with regard to data and modelling.

Strategic design of long-term climate policy instrumentations, with exemplary EU focus

The Paris climate goal requires unprecedented emission reduction, while CO2 concentrations are now rising faster than ever. Internally inconsistent instrumentation has developed on the go, not fit for deep reduction. Mainly national technology-specific instruments, for example, have made the EU pure cap-and-trade system superfluous and have fragmented electricity markets. Systematic instrumentation design requires an adequate categorization of instruments, newly developed here for that purpose. This instrument ordering links to generality and bindingness. Starting points for any instrumentation design are sparseness, completeness, and non-overlap. Details in instrumentations may further depend on specific circumstances in different countries and regions. Planning & Control starts with technology-specific instrumentation, with subsidies and standards to reduce fossil emissions in electricity production; effective Fleet Standards for transport; dynamic standards and permits regarding industry emissions; and standards and technology subsidies squeezing out fossils use in buildings and appliances. Subsidies create learning curves. Consistency and effectiveness tend to require centralization. Institutionalism uses two core institutional instruments. A comprehensive upstream emission tax with proceeds to the country or state level creates incentives. An open-to-all, real-time priced electricity market enables also small-scale renewables and secondary producers on the grid. Infrastructure is provided publicly. A level playing field results for mostly decentral climate action, both public and private. Policy relevance Technical instrument choices may seem neutral but cannot be so: policy is about choices. Two governance strategies are now mutually competing and counteracting. Planning & Control links to welfare theory and optimization, with broad integration of several policy goals, measurable targets, and deep public–private cooperation. Institutionalism has a background in history, economics, sociology, and political science, with institutions driving long-term development. Incentives and option creation are central, indicating results only roughly. There is strict public–private delimitation. These different views on governance lead to mutually exclusive sets of instruments. Explicit instrumentation strategies are required for consistency, effectiveness, and legitimacy. Internationally, Planning & Control requires binding country caps for (almost) all countries, UN-type. Institutionalism requires a limited agreement on a high rising emission tax, open for all countries to join a starting group, WTO-type. Choices are ultimately based on governance preferences.

Role of Expertsystems in Evaluation of Contaminated Soil and Groundwater

In recent years rapid progress has been made in developing METHODS and obtaining DATA for the evaluation of soil and groundwater contamination.