Rupa Duttagupta

Capital Flows are Fickle: Anytime, Anywhere

Has the unprecedented financial globalization of recent years changed the behavior of capital flows across countries? Using a newly constructed database of gross and net capital flows since 1980 for a sample of nearly 150 countries, this paper finds that private capital flows are typically volatile for all countries, advanced or emerging, across all points in time. This holds true across most types of flows, including bank, portfolio debt, and equity flows. Advanced economies enjoy a greater substitutability between types of inflows, and complementarity between gross inflows and outflows, than do emerging markets, which reduces the volatility of their total net inflows despite higher volatility of the components. Capital flows also exhibit low persistence, across all economies and across most types of flows. Inflows tend to rise temporarily when global financing conditions are relatively easy. These findings suggest that fickle capital flows are an unavoidable fact of life to which policymakers across all countries need to continue to manage and adapt.

Free Trade Areas and Rules of Origin: Economics and Politics

Incorporating intermediate inputs into a small-union general-equilibrium model, this paper first develops the welfare economics of preferential trading under the rules of origin (ROO) and then demonstrates that the ROO could improve the political viability of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). Two interesting outcomes are derived. First, a welfare reducing FTA that was rejected in the absence of the ROO becomes feasible in the presence of these rules. Second, a welfare improving FTA that was rejected in the absence of the ROO is endorsed in their presence, but upon endorsement it becomes welfare inferior relative to the status quo.

The Anatomy of Banking Crises

This paper uses a Binary Classification Tree (BCT) model to analyze banking crises in 50 emerging market and developing countries during 1990-2005. The BCT identifies key indicators and their threshold values at which vulnerability to banking crisis increases. The three conditions identified as crisis-prone-(i) very high inflation, (ii) highly dollarized bank deposits combined with nominal depreciation or low liquidity, and (iii) low bank profitability-highlight that foreign currency risk, poor financial soundness, and macroeconomic instability are key vulnerabilities triggering banking crises. The main results survive under alternative robustness checks, confirming the importance of the BCT approach for monitoring banking system vulnerabilities.

What Happened to Asian Exports During the Crisis

After the large exchange rate depreciations following the 1997 East Asian crisis, export volumes from East Asian countries responded with a notable lag. Two main explanations for this lag have been proposed: that contraction in domestic credit affected supply of exports; and that ‘competitive depreciation’ by other countries neutralized the effects on demand for exports. This Paper considers the plausibility of these two mechanisms using a new monthly database on exports of selected industries. The results indicate that ‘competitive depreciation’ played an important role in the propagation of the East Asian crisis through the trade channel, even at a monthly frequency.

From Fixed to Float : Operational Aspects of Moving towards Exchange Rate Flexibility

A dimmable, backlight system provides increased light output at low temperatures and provides a full range of dimming. Both current amplitude control and current duty cycle control are used to more precisely adjust the lamp light output. During low temperatures, the lamp is overdriven using a high amplitude current source. The increased current provides increased light output at low temperatures. When the lamp temperature increases, the amount of current flowing to the lamp is reduced to prevent damage from occurring to the lamp. The lamp may be dimmed throughout the entire temperature range by adjusting the duty cycle of the current source. By dimming using the duty cycle, the light output of the lamp may be more precisely controlled. The amplitude and duty cycle may be controlled using either an analog or digital control signal.

Politics of free trade areas: tariffs versus quotas

Abstract In this paper we compare and contrast the political viability of bilateral Free Trade Area (FTA) Agreements in the presence of tariffs and quotas. Assuming that the government maximizes a weighted sum of welfare and producer profits, we show that the political viability of FTAs varies according to whether trade restrictions take the form of tariffs or quotas. A key result is that whereas an FTA is unambiguously rejected by one of the countries under a tariff, it may be endorsed by both trading partners under a voluntary export quota or import quota that provides equal protection as the tariff.

The Growth Comeback in Developing Economies; A New Hope or Back to the Future?

Growth takeoffs in developing economies have rebounded in the past two decades. Although recent takeoffs have lasted longer than takeoffs before the 1990s, a key question is whether they could unravel like some did in the past. This paper finds that recent takeoffs are associated with stronger economic conditions, such as lower post-takeoff debt and inflation levels; more competitive real exchange rates; and better structural reforms and institutions. The chances of starting a takeoff in the 2000s was triple that before the 1990s, with domestic conditions accounting for most of the increase. The findings suggest that if today’s dynamic developing economies sustain their improved policies; they are more likely to stay on course compared to many of their predecessors.

The Impact of the Global Crisis on Canada: What Do Macro-Financial Linkages Tell Us?

This paper builds a Bayesian VAR estimation model of growth for Canada, by focusing specifically on the role of external and domestic financial indicators, including credit conditions. A variance decomposition shows that financial conditions explain one-third of the total variability in Canadas real GDP growth, although changes in U.S. real GDP growth still account for a larger share of volatility in Canadian growth. A macro-financial conditions index built from the VARs impulse responses shows that U.S. real GDP growth and lending standards will increasingly bear on Canadas growth, implying that a normalization of the U.S. economic and financial conditions is key for a sustained recovery in Canada.

Price Dynamics in the Eastern Caribbean

The Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) countries share a common currency, the EC dollar, which has been pegged to the U.S. dollar at the same rate for more than three decades. This paper examines the influence of the peg on ECCU price stability, and analyzes whether absolute Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) holds within the currency union. It shows that U.S. price stability has helped anchor price movement in the ECCU. As the same time, inflation in the ECCU is not entirely imported from the U.S., and has some domestic policy content. In addition, deviation from PPP within the ECCU can be attributed to persistent price dispersion of nontradables.

Moving to a Flexible Exchange Rate: How, When, and How Fast?: How, When, and How Fast?

A growing number of countries are adopting flexible exchange rate regimes because flexibility offers more protection against external shocks and greater monetary independence. Other countries have made the transition under disorderly conditions, with the sharp depreciation of their currency during a crisis. Regardless of the reason for adopting a flexible exchange rate, a successful transition depends on the effective management of a number of institutional and operational issues. The authors of this Economic Issue describe the necessary ingredients for moving to a flexible regime, as well as the optimal pace and sequencing under different conditions.