Russell S. Schneider

CONVECTIVE-SCALE WARN-ON-FORECAST SYSTEM

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations (NOAAs) National Weather Service (NWS) issues warnings for severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, and flash floods because these phenomena are a threat to life and property. These warnings are presently based upon either visual confirmation of the phenomena or the observational detection of proxy signatures that are largely based upon radar observations. Convective-scale weather warnings are unique in the NWS, having little reliance on direct numerical forecast guidance. Because increasing severe thunderstorm, tornado, and flash-flood warning lead times are a key NOAA strategic mission goal designed to reduce the loss of life, injury, and economic costs of these high-impact weather phenomena, a new warning paradigm is needed in which numerical model forecasts play a larger role in convective-scale warnings. This new paradigm shifts the warning process from warn on detection to warn on forecast, and it has the potential to dramatically increase warning lead ...

The Emergence of Weather-Related Test Beds Linking Research and Forecasting Operations

Test beds have emerged as a critical mechanism linking weather research with forecasting operations. The U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP) was formed in the 1990s to help identify key gaps in research related to major weather prediction problems and the role of observations and numerical models. This planning effort ultimately revealed the need for greater capacity and new approaches to improve the connectivity between the research and forecasting enterprise. Out of this developed the seeds for what is now termed “test beds.” While many individual projects, and even more broadly the NOAA/National Weather Service (NWS) Modernization, were successful in advancing weather prediction services, it was recognized that specific forecast problems warranted a more focused and elevated level of effort. The USWRP helped develop these concepts with science teams and provided seed funding for several of the test beds described. Based on the varying NOAA mission requirements for forecasting, differences in the orga...

Collaboration between Forecasters and Research Scientists at the NSSL and SPC: The Spring Program

ollaboration between forecasters and researchersadvances meteorology by promoting better un-derstanding and improved prediction of atmo-spheric processes, yet sustained collaboration betweenthese two groups is relatively rare. Forecasters ana-lyze atmospheric conditions nearly every day and of-ten observe poorly understood processes or phenom-ena that are critically important to predicting threatsto life and property. Many forecasters have a keeninsight into the weather and an interest in doing ap-plied atmospheric research, but too often they are notprovided adequate time, diagnostic tools, guidance,or mentoring for independent research projects(Doswell 1986; Auciello and Lavoie 1993). On theother hand, many researchers have at their disposal avast array of diagnostic tools, numerical models, theo-retical knowledge, and experience in formal research.Yet, most meteorological research does not have di-rect implications for improving weather forecasts,despite the obvious societal benefits of applied re-search (Serafin et al. 2002). The failure of meteoro-logical researchers and forecasters to collaborate on

The May 2003 Extended Tornado Outbreak

In May 2003 there was a very destructive extended outbreak of tornadoes across the central and eastern United States. More than a dozen tornadoes struck each day from 3 May to 11 May 2003. This outbreak caused 41 fatalities, 642 injuries, and approximately

Forecasting the 12–14 March 1993 Superstorm

829 million dollars of property damage. The outbreak set a record for most tornadoes ever reported in a week (334 between 4–10 May), and strong tornadoes (F2 or greater) occurred in an unbroken sequence of nine straight days. Fortunately, despite this being one of the largest extended outbreaks of tornadoes on record, it did not cause as many fatalities as in the few comparable past outbreaks, due in large measure to the warning efforts of National Weather Service, television, and private-company forecasters and the smaller number of violent (F4–F5) tornadoes. This event was also relatively predictable; the onset of the outbreak was forecast skillfully many days in advance. An unusually persistent upper-level trough in the intermountain west and sustai...

CONVECTIVE-SCALE WARN-ON-FORECAST SYSTEM: A vision for 2020

Abstract This paper describes the decision-making process used by the forecasters in the National Meteorological Centers Meteorological Operations Division and in Weather Forecast Offices of the National Weather Service to provide the successful forecasts of the superstorm of 12–14 March 1993. This review illustrates 1) the difficult decisions forecasters faced when using sometimes conflicting model guidance, 2) the forecasters’ success in recognizing the mesoscale aspects of the storm as it began to develop and move along the Gulf and East Coasts of the United States, and 3) their ability to produce one of the most successful heavy snow and blizzard forecasts ever for a major winter storm that affected the eastern third of the United States. The successful aspects of the forecasts include the following. 1) Cyclogenesis was predicted up to 5 days prior to its onset. 2) The unusual intensity of the storm was predicted three days in advance, allowing forecasters, government officials, and the media ample t...