Ruth Kelly

Expertly validated models and phylogenetically-controlled analysis suggests responses to climate change are related to species traits in the Order Lagomorpha

Climate change during the past five decades has impacted significantly on natural ecosystems, and the rate of current climate change is of great concern among conservation biologists. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used widely to project changes in species’ bioclimatic envelopes under future climate scenarios. Here, we aimed to advance this technique by assessing future changes in the bioclimatic envelopes of an entire mammalian order, the Lagomorpha, using a novel framework for model validation based jointly on subjective expert evaluation and objective model evaluation statistics. SDMs were built using climatic, topographical, and habitat variables for all 87 lagomorph species under past and current climate scenarios. Expert evaluation and Kappa values were used to validate past and current models and only those deemed ‘modellable’ within our framework were projected under future climate scenarios (58 species). Phylogenetically-controlled regressions were used to test whether species traits correlated with predicted responses to climate change. Climate change is likely to impact more than two-thirds of lagomorph species, with leporids (rabbits, hares, and jackrabbits) likely to undertake poleward shifts with little overall change in range extent, whilst pikas are likely to show extreme shifts to higher altitudes associated with marked range declines, including the likely extinction of Kozlov’s Pika (Ochotona koslowi). Smaller-bodied species were more likely to exhibit range contractions and elevational increases, but showing little poleward movement, and fecund species were more likely to shift latitudinally and elevationally. Our results suggest that species traits may be important indicators of future climate change and we believe multi-species approaches, as demonstrated here, are likely to lead to more effective mitigation measures and conservation management. We strongly advocate studies minimising data gaps in our knowledge of the Order, specifically collecting more specimens for biodiversity archives and targeting data deficient geographic regions.

Effects of Elodea nuttallii on temperate freshwater plants, microalgae and invertebrates: small differences between invaded and uninvaded areas

The invasive aquatic plant species Elodea nuttallii could pose a considerable risk to European freshwater ecosystems based on its current distribution, rate of spread and potential for high biomass. However, little research has been conducted on the impacts of this species on native biota. This study takes an ecosystem-wide approach and examines the impact of E. nuttallii on selected physicochemical parameters (dissolved oxygen and pH), algae, invertebrate and macrophyte communities. Elodea nuttallii had small but significant impacts on plant, invertebrate and algal species. The richness of algal periphyton was lower on E. nuttallii than on native macrophytes. The taxonomic composition of invertebrate communities associated with E. nuttallii differed from that associated with similar native plant species, but did not differ in terms of total biomass or species richness. Macrophyte species richness and total cover were positively correlated with percentage cover of E. nuttallii. Not all macrophyte species responded in the same way to E. nuttallii invasion; cover of the low-growing species, Elodea canadensis and charophytes were negatively correlated with E. nuttallii cover, whilst floating-rooted plants were positively correlated with E. nuttallii cover. All observed differences in the macrophyte community were small relative to other factors such as nutrient levels, inter-annual variation and differences between sites. Despite this, the observed negative association between E. nuttallii and charophytes is a key concern due to the rarity and endangered status of many charophyte species.

Expertly validated models suggest responses to climate change are related to species traits: a phylogenetically-controlled analysis of the Order Lagomorpha

Climate change during the last five decades has impacted on natural systems 16 significantly and the rate of current climate change is of great concern among 17 conservation biologists. Here, we assess the projected change in the bioclimatic 18 envelopes of all 87 species in the mammalian order Lagomorpha under future climate 19 using expertly validated species distribution models. Results suggest that climate 20 change will impact more than two-thirds of Lagomorphs, with leporids (rabbits, hares 21 and jackrabbits) likely to undertake poleward shifts with little overall change in range 22 extent, whilst pikas are likely to show extreme shifts to higher altitudes associated with 23 marked range declines, including the likely extinction of Kozlov’s Pika (Ochotona 24 koslowi). Species traits were associated with predictions of change, with smaller-bodied 25 species more likely to exhibit range contractions and elevational increases, but showing 26 little poleward movement. Lagomorphs vulnerable to climate change require urgent 27 conservation management to mitigate range declines and/or extinctions. 28 29 not peer-reviewed) is the author/funder. All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was . http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/001826 doi: bioRxiv preprint first posted online Jan. 14, 2014;Climate change during the last five decades has impacted significantly on natural ecosystems and the rate of current climate change is of great concern among conservation biologists. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used widely to project changes in species’ bioclimatic envelopes under future climate scenarios. Here, we aimed to advance this technique by assessing future changes in the bioclimatic envelopes of an entire mammalian Order, the Lagomorpha, using a novel framework for model validation based jointly on subjective expert evaluation and objective model evaluation statistics. SDMs were built using climatic, topographical and habitat variables for all 87 species under past and current climate scenarios. Expert evaluation and Kappa values were used to validate past and current distribution models and only those deemed ‘modellable’ through our framework were projected under future climate scenarios (58 species). We then used phylogenetically-controlled regressions to test whether species traits were correlated with predicted responses to climate change. Climate change will impact more than two-thirds of the Lagomorpha, with leporids (rabbits, hares and jackrabbits) likely to undertake poleward shifts with little overall change in range extent, whilst pikas are likely to show extreme shifts to higher altitudes associated with marked range declines, including the likely extinction of Kozlov’s Pika (Ochotona koslowi). Smaller-bodied species were more likely to exhibit range contractions and elevational increases, but showing little poleward movement, and fecund species were more likely to shift latitudinally and elevationally. Our results suggest that species traits may be important indicators of future climate change and we believe multi-species approaches, as demonstrated here, are likely to lead to more effective mitigation measures and conservation management.

Contrasting impacts of highly invasive plant species on flower-visiting insect communities

Invasive alien plants threaten biodiversity, ecosystems and service provision worldwide. They can have positive and negative direct and indirect effects on herbivorous insects, including those that provide pollination services. Here, we quantify how three highly invasive plant species (Heracleum mantegazzianum, Impatiens glandulifera and Fallopia japonica) influence the availability of floral resources and flower-visiting insect communities. We compared invaded with comparable uninvaded areas to assess floral resources and used pan-trapping to quantify insect communities. Only F. japonica influenced floral resource availability: sites invaded by this species had a higher flowering plant species richness and abundance of open floral units than uninvaded sites, probably due to its late flowering and the paucity of other flowering species at this time of year. Fallopia japonica was also associated with higher abundances of bumblebees, higher overall insect diversity and higher hoverfly diversity than uninvaded areas. Differences in pollinator communities were also associated with I. glandulifera and H. mantegazzianum, despite there being no detectable differences in floral resources at these sites. Specifically, there were more bumblebees and solitary bees in I. glandulifera sites, and a higher overall diversity of insects, particularly hoverflies. By contrast, H. mantegazzianum sites had a lower abundance of solitary bees and hoverflies. These findings confirm that invasive plant species have a range of species-specific effects on ecological communities. This supports the emerging view that control of invasive species, as required under international obligations, is not simple and that potential losses and gains for biodiversity must be carefully evaluated on a case-by-case basis.