Ruth Pulikottil-Jacob

Understanding why children die in high-income countries

Many factors affect child and adolescent mortality in high-income countries. These factors can be conceptualised within four domains-intrinsic (biological and psychological) factors, the physical environment, the social environment, and service delivery. The most prominent factors are socioeconomic gradients, although the mechanisms through which they exert their effects are complex, affect all four domains, and are often poorly understood. Although some contributing factors are relatively fixed--including a childs sex, age, ethnic origin, and genetics, some parental characteristics, and environmental conditions--others might be amenable to interventions that could lessen risks and help to prevent future child deaths. We give several examples of health service features that could affect child survival, along with interventions, such as changes to the physical or social environment, which could affect upstream (distal) factors.

Cost-effectiveness of left ventricular assist devices (LVADs) for patients with advanced heart failure: Analysis of the British NHS bridge to transplant (BTT) program

BACKGROUND A previous cost-effectiveness analysis showed that bridge to transplant (BTT) with early design left ventricular assist devices (LVADs) for advanced heart failure was more expensive than medical management while appearing less beneficial. Older LVADs were pulsatile, but current second and third generation LVADs are continuous flow pumps. This study aimed to estimate comparative cost-effectiveness of BTT with durable implantable continuous flow LVADs compared to medical management in the British NHS. METHODS AND RESULTS A semi-Markov multi-state economic model was built using NHS costs data and patient data in the British NHS Blood and Transplant Database (BTDB). Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and incremental costs per QALY were calculated for patients receiving LVADs compared to those receiving inotrope supported medical management. LVADs cost £80,569 (

Total hip replacement and surface replacement for the treatment of pain and disability resulting from end-stage arthritis of the hip (review of technology appraisal guidance 2 and 44): systematic review and economic evaluation

127,887) at 2011 prices and delivered greater benefit than medical management. The estimated probabilistic incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was £53,527 (

Setting benchmark revision rates for total hip replacement: analysis of registry evidence

84,963)/QALY (95%CI: £31,802-£94,853;

Comparative cost-effectiveness of the HeartWare versus HeartMate II left ventricular assist devices used in the United Kingdom National Health Service bridge-to-transplant program for patients with heart failure

50,479-

A randomised controlled trial of six weeks of home enteral nutrition versus standard care after oesophagectomy or total gastrectomy for cancer: report on a pilot and feasibility study

150,560) (over a lifetime horizon). Estimates were sensitive to choice of comparator population, relative likelihood of receiving a heart transplant, time to transplant, and LVAD costs. Reducing the device cost by 15% decreased the ICER to £50,106 (

Interactive web-based pulmonary rehabilitation programme: a randomised controlled feasibility trial

79,533)/QALY. CONCLUSIONS Durable implantable continuous flow LVADs deliver greater benefits at higher costs than medical management in Britain. At the current UK threshold of £20,000 to £30,000/QALY LVADs are not cost effective but the ICER now begins to approach that of an intervention for end of life care recently recommended by the British NHS. Cost-effectiveness estimates are hampered by the lack of randomized trials.

Cost effectiveness of total hip arthroplasty in osteoarthritis: comparison of devices with differing bearing surfaces and modes of fixation

BACKGROUND Total hip replacement (THR) involves the replacement of a damaged hip joint with an artificial hip prosthesis. Resurfacing arthroplasty (RS) involves replacement of the joint surface of the femoral head with a metal surface covering. OBJECTIVES To undertake clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness analysis of different types of THR and RS for the treatment of pain and disability in people with end-stage arthritis of the hip, in particular to compare the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of (1) different types of primary THR and RS for people in whom both procedures are suitable and (2) different types of primary THR for people who are not suitable for hip RS. DATA SOURCES Electronic databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE, The Cochrane Library, Current Controlled Trials and UK Clinical Research Network (UKCRN) Portfolio Database were searched in December 2012, with searches limited to publications from 2008 and sample sizes of ≥ 100 participants. Reference lists and websites of manufacturers and professional organisations were also screened. REVIEW METHODS Systematic reviews of the literature were undertaken to appraise the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of different types of THR and RS for people with end-stage arthritis of the hip. Included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and systematic reviews were data extracted and risk of bias and methodological quality were independently assessed by two reviewers using the Cochrane Collaboration risk of bias tool and the Assessment of Multiple Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR) tool. A Markov multistate model was developed for the economic evaluation of the technologies. Sensitivity analyses stratified by sex and controlled for age were carried out to assess the robustness of the results. RESULTS A total of 2469 records were screened of which 37 were included, representing 16 RCTs and eight systematic reviews. The mean post-THR Harris Hip Score measured at different follow-up times (from 6 months to 10 years) did not differ between THR groups, including between cross-linked polyethylene and traditional polyethylene cup liners (pooled mean difference 2.29, 95% confidence interval -0.88 to 5.45). Five systematic reviews reported evidence on different types of THR (cemented vs. cementless cup fixation and implant articulation materials) but these reviews were inconclusive. Eleven cost-effectiveness studies were included; four provided relevant cost and utility data for the model. Thirty registry studies were included, with no studies reporting better implant survival for RS than for all types of THR. For all analyses, mean costs for RS were higher than those for THR and mean quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were lower. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for RS was dominated by THR, that is, THR was cheaper and more effective than RS (for a lifetime horizon in the base-case analysis, the incremental cost of RS was £11,284 and the incremental QALYs were -0.0879). For all age and sex groups RS remained clearly dominated by THR. Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves showed that, for all patients, THR was almost 100% cost-effective at any willingness-to-pay level. There were age and sex differences in the populations with different types of THR and variations in revision rates (from 1.6% to 3.5% at 9 years). For the base-case analysis, for all age and sex groups and a lifetime horizon, mean costs for category E (cemented components with a polyethylene-on-ceramic articulation) were slightly lower and mean QALYs for category E were slightly higher than those for all other THR categories in both deterministic and probabilistic analyses. Hence, category E dominated the other four categories. Sensitivity analysis using an age- and sex-adjusted log-normal model demonstrated that, over a lifetime horizon and at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000 per QALY, categories A and E were equally likely (50%) to be cost-effective. LIMITATIONS A large proportion of the included studies were inconclusive because of poor reporting, missing data, inconsistent results and/or great uncertainty in the treatment effect estimates. This warrants cautious interpretation of the findings. The evidence on complications was scarce, which may be because of the absence or rarity of these events or because of under-reporting. The poor reporting meant that it was not possible to explore contextual factors that might have influenced study results and also reduced the applicability of the findings to routine clinical practice in the UK. The scope of the review was limited to evidence published in English in 2008 or later, which could be interpreted as a weakness; however, systematic reviews would provide summary evidence for studies published before 2008. CONCLUSIONS Compared with THR, revision rates for RS were higher, mean costs for RS were higher and mean QALYs gained were lower; RS was dominated by THR. Similar results were obtained in the deterministic and probabilistic analyses and for all age and sex groups THR was almost 100% cost-effective at any willingness-to-pay level. Revision rates for all types of THR were low. Category A THR (cemented components with a polyethylene-on-metal articulation) was more cost-effective for older age groups. However, across all age-sex groups combined, the mean cost for category E THR (cemented components with a polyethylene-on-ceramic articulation) was slightly lower and the mean QALYs gained were slightly higher. Category E therefore dominated the other four categories. Certain types of THR appeared to confer some benefit, including larger femoral head sizes, use of a cemented cup, use of a cross-linked polyethylene cup liner and a ceramic-on-ceramic as opposed to a metal-on-polyethylene articulation. Further RCTs with long-term follow-up are needed. STUDY REGISTRATION This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42013003924. FUNDING The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Six weeks of home enteral nutrition versus standard care after esophagectomy or total gastrectomy for cancer: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

Objective To compare 10 year revision rates for frequently used types of primary total hip replacement to inform setting of a new benchmark rate in England and Wales that will be of international relevance. Design Retrospective cohort study. Setting National Joint Registry. Participants 239 000 patient records. Main outcome measures Revision rates for five frequently used types of total hip replacement that differed according to bearing surface and fixation mode, encompassing 62% of all primary total hip replacements in the National Joint Registry for England and Wales. Revision rates were compared using Kaplan-Meier and competing risks analyses, and five and 10 year rates were estimated using well fitting parametric models. Results Estimated revision rates at 10 years were 4% or below for four of the five types of total hip replacement investigated. Rates differed little according to Kaplan-Meier or competing risks analysis, but differences between prosthesis types were more substantial. Cemented prostheses with ceramic-on-polyethylene bearing surfaces had the lowest revision rates (1.88-2.11% at 10 years depending on the method used), and cementless prostheses with ceramic-on-ceramic bearing surfaces had the highest revision rates (3.93-4.33%). Men were more likely to receive revision of total hip replacement than were women, and this difference was statistically significant for four of the five prosthesis types. Conclusions Ten year revision rate estimates were all less than 5%, and in some instances considerably less. The results suggest that the current revision rate benchmark should be at least halved from 10% to less than 5% at 10 years. This has implications for benchmarks internationally.

Response to two recent BMJ papers on mortality after hip replacement: comparative modelling study

BACKGROUND Patients with advanced heart failure may receive a left ventricular assist device (LVAD) as part of a bridge-to-transplant (BTT) strategy. The United Kingdom National Health Service (UK NHS) has financed a BTT program in which the predominant LVADs used have been the HeartMate II (HM II; Thoratec, Pleasanton, CA) and HeartWare (HW; HeartWare International, Inc. Framingham, MA). We aimed to compare the cost-effectiveness of the use of these within the NHS program. METHODS Individual patient data from the UK NHS Blood and Transplant Data Base were analyzed with Kaplan-Meier and competing outcomes methodologies. Outcomes were time to death, time to heart transplant (HT), and cumulative incidences of HT, death on LVAD support, and LVAD explantation. A semi-Markov multistate economic model was built to assess cost-effectiveness. The perspective was from the NHS, discount rates were 3.5%. Outcomes were quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and incremental cost (2011 prices in GB£) per QALY (ICER) for HW vs HM II. RESULTS Survival was better with HW support than with HM II. Cumulative incidence of HT was low for both groups (11% at ~2 years). HW patients accrued 4.99 lifetime QALYs costing £258,913 (