Ryan R. Neely

The Persistently Variable “Background” Stratospheric Aerosol Layer and Global Climate Change

An increase in the amount of aerosols in the stratosphere during the past decade has decreased the rate of global warming. Recent measurements demonstrate that the “background” stratospheric aerosol layer is persistently variable rather than constant, even in the absence of major volcanic eruptions. Several independent data sets show that stratospheric aerosols have increased in abundance since 2000. Near-global satellite aerosol data imply a negative radiative forcing due to stratospheric aerosol changes over this period of about –0.1 watt per square meter, reducing the recent global warming that would otherwise have occurred. Observations from earlier periods are limited but suggest an additional negative radiative forcing of about –0.1 watt per square meter from 1960 to 1990. Climate model projections neglecting these changes would continue to overestimate the radiative forcing and global warming in coming decades if these aerosols remain present at current values or increase.

Increase in background stratospheric aerosol observed with lidar at Mauna Loa Observatory and Boulder, Colorado

The stratospheric aerosol layer has been monitored with lidars at Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii and Boulder in Colorado since 1975 and 2000, respectively. Following the Pinatubo volcanic eruption in June 1991, the global stratosphere has not been perturbed by a major volcanic eruption providing an unprecedented opportunity to study the background aerosol. Since about 2000, an increase of 4-7% per year in the aerosol backscatter in the altitude range 20-30 km has been detected at both Mauna Loa and Boulder. This increase is superimposed on a seasonal cycle with a winter maximum that is modulated by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in tropical winds. Of the three major causes for a stratospheric aerosol increase: volcanic emissions to the stratosphere, increased tropical upwelling, and an increase in anthropogenic sulfur gas emissions in the troposphere, it appears that a large increase in coal burning since 2002, mainly in China, is the likely source of sulfur dioxide that ultimately ends up as the sulfate aerosol responsible for the increased backscatter from the stratospheric aerosol layer. The results are consistent with 0.6-0.8% of tropospheric sulfur entering the stratosphere.

Emergence of healing in the Antarctic ozone layer.

Turning the corner The Antarctic ozone hole is finally showing signs of disappearing, nearly 30 years after the Montreal Protocol came into effect. The Montreal Protocol, an international treaty that phased out the production of many of the human-made compounds responsible for stratospheric ozone destruction, is widely considered to be the most important and successful international environmental agreement. For years, it has slowed the rate of stratospheric ozone depletion, and now there are signs that the ozone abundance over Antarctica has begun to increase. Solomon et al. present observational data and model results to illustrate the trends and diagnose their causes. Science, this issue p. 269 Stratospheric ozone over the Antarctic has begun to increase after decades of losses. Industrial chlorofluorocarbons that cause ozone depletion have been phased out under the Montreal Protocol. A chemically driven increase in polar ozone (or “healing”) is expected in response to this historic agreement. Observations and model calculations together indicate that healing of the Antarctic ozone layer has now begun to occur during the month of September. Fingerprints of September healing since 2000 include (i) increases in ozone column amounts, (ii) changes in the vertical profile of ozone concentration, and (iii) decreases in the areal extent of the ozone hole. Along with chemistry, dynamical and temperature changes have contributed to the healing but could represent feedbacks to chemistry. Volcanic eruptions have episodically interfered with healing, particularly during 2015, when a record October ozone hole occurred after the Calbuco eruption.

Total volcanic stratospheric aerosol optical depths and implications for global climate change

Understanding the cooling effect of recent volcanoes is of particular interest in the context of the post-2000 slowing of the rate of global warming. Satellite observations of aerosol optical depth above 15 km have demonstrated that small-magnitude volcanic eruptions substantially perturb incoming solar radiation. Here we use lidar, Aerosol Robotic Network, and balloon-borne observations to provide evidence that currently available satellite databases neglect substantial amounts of volcanic aerosol between the tropopause and 15 km at middle to high latitudes and therefore underestimate total radiative forcing resulting from the recent eruptions. Incorporating these estimates into a simple climate model, we determine the global volcanic aerosol forcing since 2000 to be −0.19 ± 0.09 Wm−2. This translates into an estimated global cooling of 0.05 to 0.12°C. We conclude that recent volcanic events are responsible for more post-2000 cooling than is implied by satellite databases that neglect volcanic aerosol effects below 15 km.

High and Dry: New Observations of Tropospheric and Cloud Properties above the Greenland Ice Sheet

Cloud and atmospheric properties strongly influence the mass and energy budgets of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS). To address critical gaps in the understanding of these systems, a new suite of cloud- and atmosphere-observing instruments has been installed on the central GIS as part of the Integrated Characterization of Energy, Clouds, Atmospheric State, and Precipitation at Summit (ICECAPS) project. During the first 20 months in operation, this complementary suite of active and passive ground-based sensors and radiosondes has provided new and unique perspectives on important cloud–atmosphere properties. High atop the GIS, the atmosphere is extremely dry and cold with strong near-surface static stability predominating throughout the year, particularly in winter. This low-level thermodynamic structure, coupled with frequent moisture inversions, conveys the importance of advection for local cloud and precipitation formation. Cloud liquid water is observed in all months of the year, even the particularly cold...

Stratospheric Aerosol--Observations, Processes, and Impact on Climate

Interest in stratospheric aerosol and its role in climate have increased over the last decade due to the observed increase in stratospheric aerosol since 2000 and the potential for changes in the sulfur cycle induced by climate change. This review provides an overview about the advances in stratospheric aerosol research since the last comprehensive assessment of stratospheric aerosol was published in 2006. A crucial development since 2006 is the substantial improvement in the agreement between in situ and space-based inferences of stratospheric aerosol properties during volcanically quiescent periods. Furthermore, new measurement systems and techniques, both in situ and space based, have been developed for measuring physical aerosol properties with greater accuracy and for characterizing aerosol composition. However, these changes induce challenges to constructing a long-term stratospheric aerosol climatology. Currently, changes in stratospheric aerosol levels less than 20% cannot be confidently quantified. The volcanic signals tend to mask any nonvolcanically driven change, making them difficult to understand. While the role of carbonyl sulfide as a substantial and relatively constant source of stratospheric sulfur has been confirmed by new observations and model simulations, large uncertainties remain with respect to the contribution from anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions. New evidence has been provided that stratospheric aerosol can also contain small amounts of nonsulfate matter such as black carbon and organics. Chemistry-climate models have substantially increased in quantity and sophistication. In many models the implementation of stratospheric aerosol processes is coupled to radiation and/or stratospheric chemistry modules to account for relevant feedback processes.

Global volcanic aerosol properties derived from emissions, 1990-2014, using CESM1(WACCM)

Accurate representation of global stratospheric aerosols from volcanic and non-volcanic sulfur emissions is key to understanding the cooling effects and ozone-losses that may be linked to volcanic activity. Attribution of climate variability to volcanic activity is of particular interest in relation to the post-2000 slowing in the rate of global average temperature increases. We have compiled a database of volcanic SO2 emissions and plume altitudes for eruptions from 1990 to 2014, and developed a new prognostic capability for simulating stratospheric sulfate aerosols in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). We used these combined with other non-volcanic emissions of sulfur sources to reconstruct global aerosol properties from 1990 to 2014. Our calculations show remarkable agreement with ground-based lidar observations of stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD), and with in situ measurements of stratospheric aerosol surface area density (SAD). These properties are key parameters in calculating the radiative and chemical effects of stratospheric aerosols. Our SAOD calculations represent a clear improvement over available satellite-based analyses, which generally ignore aerosol extinction below 15 km, a region that can contain the vast majority of stratospheric aerosol extinction at mid- and high-latitudes. Our SAD calculations greatly improve on that provided for the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative, which misses about 60% of the SAD measured in situ on average during both volcanically active and volcanically quiescent periods.

Composition and physical properties of the Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer and the North American Tropospheric Aerosol Layer

Recent studies revealed layers of enhanced aerosol scattering in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere over Asia (Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (ATAL)) and North America (North American Tropospheric Aerosol Layer (NATAL)). We use a sectional aerosol model (Community Aerosol and Radiation Model for Atmospheres (CARMA)) coupled with the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) to explore the composition and optical properties of these aerosol layers. The observed aerosol extinction enhancement is reproduced by CESM1/CARMA. Both model and observations indicate a strong gradient of the sulfur-to-carbon ratio from Europe to the Asia on constant pressure surfaces. We found that the ATAL is mostly composed of sulfates, surface-emitted organics, and secondary organics; the NATAL is mostly composed of sulfates and secondary organics. The model also suggests that emission increases in Asia between 2000 and 2010 led to an increase of aerosol optical depth of the ATAL by 0.002 on average which is consistent with observations. KEY POINTS The Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer is composed of sulfate, primary organics, and secondary organics The North American Tropospheric Aerosol Layer is mostly composed of sulfate and secondary organics Aerosol Optical Depth of Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer increases by 0.002 from 2000 to 2010.

The Specified Chemistry Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model ( SC-WACCM )

We here present, document and validate a new atmospheric component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1): the Specified Chemistry Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (SC-WACCM). As the name implies, SC-WACCM is a middle atmosphere-resolving model with prescribed, rather than interactive chemistry. Ozone concentrations are specified throughout the atmosphere, using zonal and monthly mean climatologies computed by a companion integration with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). Above 65 km, in addition, the climatological chemical and shortwave heating, nitrogen oxide, atomic and molecular oxygen and carbon dioxide are also prescribed from the companion WACCM integration. We carefully compare the climatology and the climate variability of preindustrial integrations of SC-WACCM and WACCM each coupled with active land, ocean and sea-ice components. We note some differences in upper stratospheric and lower mesospheric temperature, just below the 65 km transition level, due to the diurnal ozone cycle that is not captured when monthly mean ozone is used. Nonetheless, we find that the climatology and variability of the stratosphere, the troposphere and surface climate are nearly identical in SC-WACCM and WACCM. Notably, the frequency and amplitude of Northern Hemisphere stratospheric sudden warmings in the two integrations are not significantly different. Also, we compare WACCM and SC-WACCM to CCSM4, the “low-top” version of CESM1, and we find very significant differences in the stratospheric climatology and variability. The removal of the chemistry reduces the computational cost of SC-WACCM to approximately one half of WACCM: in fact, SC-WACCM is only 2.5 times more expensive than CCSM4 at the same horizontal resolution. This considerable reduction in computational cost makes the new SC-WACCM component of CESM1 ideally suited for studies of stratosphere-troposphere dynamical coupling and, more generally, the role of the stratosphere in the climate system.

The contribution of anthropogenic SO2 emissions to the Asian tropopause aerosol layer

Recent observations reveal a seasonally occurring layer of aerosol located from 0° to 100°E, 20° to 45°N and extending vertically from about 13 km to 18 km; this has been termed the Asian tropopause aerosol layer (ATAL), and its existence is closely associated with the Asian summer monsoon circulation. Observational studies argue that the ATAL is a recent phenomenon, as the layer is not observed in the satellite record prior to 1998. This suggests that the ATAL may be of anthropogenic origin associated with a shift in the dominant regional emission of sulfur dioxide (SO2) to China and India in the late 1990s. Here we test the hypothesis that SO2emitted from Asia led to the formation of the ATAL using an aerosol microphysical model coupled to a global chemistry climate model. This is the first modeling study to specifically examine the ATAL and its possible origin. From our results, we conclude that the ATAL is most likely due to anthropogenic emissions, but its source cannot solely be attributed to emissions from Asia. Specifically, the results indicate that Chinese and Indian emissions contribute ∼30% of the sulfate aerosol extinction in the ATAL during volcanically quiescent periods. We also show that even small volcanic eruptions preclude our ability to make any conclusions about the existence of the ATAL before 1998 with observations alone.