Ryuichi Shibasaki

An International Container Shipping Model in East Asia and its Transferability

Under the rapid expansion of container shipping in Eastern Asia with the increased size of vessels seeking economy of scale, hub-spoke operations with efficient transshipment, and global alliances of shipping companies, an Asia-range simulation model to estimate the effects of policy improvement of port facilities and operations upon maritime container flow patterns is proposed. In this chapter, the transferability of the original model, which was based on data from 1993, is ascertained by data from 1998. The models reproducibility is similar to the original model, although the newer model leads to more extensive hub-spoke transportation than in actual use.

Risk Perception and Communication in International Maritime Shipping in Japan After the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant Disaster

This paper investigated the contamination-related impact of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant disaster in Japan on seaport activities and international maritime shipping. Risk perception and risk communication after the disaster were analyzed. The maritime-related newspaper articles published in Japan after this disaster were extensively reviewed. Eleven maritime-related agents, including port managers, governments, shipping companies, port operators, and shippers, were interviewed. These interviews were conducted from June to December 2011. The results of the interviews revealed that the contamination-related impact of the power plant disaster comprised impacts on (a) major Japanese ports, including Keihin ports, that were skipped (not called at) by 42 container vessels operated by non-Japanese shipping companies; (b) foreign ports and the measurement of radiation of Japanese cargo; and (c) actions taken by the Japanese government and port managers. The framework of social amplification of risk communication was used to explain the events observed after the disaster. Use of this framework suggests that the risk communication made by maritime stakeholders successfully reduced the amplification of risk among stakeholders at various levels of information sources, information channels, and stations. A summary of lessons from the study includes the identification of factors that influenced the amplification of risk, quick responses, and appropriate countermeasures by authorities and port managers, and the introduction of systematic radiation measurement under the international agreement.

Future Forecast of Chinese Trade Amount and International Cargo Flow

This paper forecasts the future trade amount and international cargo flow, especially focused in China, using by the stepwise trade amount and international logistics flow forecasting system in East Asia that the author had been developed. For the trade forecasting sub-model, the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, the most famous model to predict world’s trade amount applying Spatial Computable General Equilibrium (SCGE) model, is applied after a few modifications. A future scenario is prepared on the future economic direction based on interview survey to many experts, including advancement of economic cooperation such as FTA. For the international cargo flow forecasting sub-model, the original model developed by the authors in order to reproduce international logistics flow on multimode transport network in East Asia including road, land, and ferry transport as well as international maritime shipping is applied, where cargo transport demand (i.e. OD cargo volume) between regions are given. In the future simulation using this sub-model, the future investment plan of the transport infrastructure such as new container terminal construction in Chinese ports should be considered. Furthermore, by comparing the calculation result without any consideration of these policies, the effect of these policies can be quantitatively measured in terms of transport cost reduction.

Consideration about Port Statistics of Containerized Cargo of Major Countries/Areas

In this paper, a study was conducted on the statistics of port cargo officially released by world major countries/areas, in which the methods of collecting data and the details were grasped, and the data were compared among countries, especially focusing on containerized cargo flow in foreign trade. In addition, points to keep in mind in using statistical data and how statistics ought to be in the future were also considered.