Ryuji Kakimoto

Factors promoting and impeding precautionary evacuation behaviour

ABSTRACT In July 2012, 23 people in Aso area, Japan died as the result of a landslide; subsequently, 36 people on Izu Island and 74 people in Hiroshima city died after landslides in October 2013 and August 2014, respectively. In all three instances, localized torrential raining occurred in the late evening and all three local governments were hesitant to issue the recommended evacuation warning for the predicted heavy rains in each locality. These unfortunate disasters led the Kumamoto Prefecture to introduce a precautionary evacuation to Aso city and Minamiaso village, but the participation rate of precautionary evacuation has been very low. This study aims to find the factors that promote and impede precautionary evacuation behaviour. We effectuate the covariance structure analysis of preventive evacuation behaviour based on protection motivation theory. We find that the main cause promoting precautionary evacuation behaviour was fear of the natural disaster. The factors impeding precautionary evacuation behaviour were predominantly psychological aspects such as the annoyance and hassle of moving to a shelter or staying at a shelter with others.

Value of Traffic Externalities from Attribute-Based Stated Choice: Route Choice Experiment

The increasing rate of motorization in major urban centers in Asia is having severe impacts on local social and physical environments. Sustainability principles call for consideration of these traffic impacts, which include congestion, air and noise pollution, road safety, and urban decay, in the evaluation of urban development programs and projects. This study aims to contribute to the scarce literature on valuing nonmonetary external costs of traffic in developing countries through the attribute-based stated choice method measuring willingness to pay for route environment improvements. A web-based stated preference route choice survey was conducted regarding private work trips in metro Manila, Philippines, to value the welfare derived from changes in the quality of road and roadside environments. The authors estimated and compared values from specifications of fixed and random parameter logit. This study shows that estimates are sensitive to model specification, particularly if the attributes have signi...

An international comparative analysis of local hazard mitigation plan evaluation for flood: The USA, Japan and Korea

Purpose This research aims to identify the qualitative differences between local hazard mitigation plan (LHMP) of the developing country when compared to those of developed countries. It also seeks to demonstrate the relative importance of public private partnership and the need for PPs to be integrated into LHMP because they help to create strong LHMP, thereby making communities will become more resilient to not only floods but also other natural disasters. It focuses on the components of hazard mitigation from a developed country perspective and how these influence the contents/focus of the LHMP especially when compared to those of a developing country. Design/methodology/approach Based on official information such as population, climate and major threat that has faced, research sites were selected. Each LHMP can be downloaded from the official city websites, except Korea. Through plan evacuation protocols the LHMP for each city – USA (Baltimore), Japan (Kumamoto) and Korea (Pohang) – were assessed three times by the research team. Plans were evaluated using a plan coding evacuation process. Findings The LHMP of the developing country did not contain maps illustrating to the people who are exposed to flood and evacuation routes and who are vulnerable (both economically and physically), when compared with the developed countries plan. However, quicker response because of simple political hierarchy can be possible in Japan and Korea when compared to the USA, which has three different tiers of political governments – federal, State and Local government – though Korea is a developing country. Originality/value In recent times, pre-disaster response, which is a proactive approach to natural disasters, is an emerging issue rather than post disaster response because of sustainable and resilient ideas of the locals that have repeatedly suffered from natural hazards. This study compares LHMPs of each country to better understand strengths and weakness, as well as to identify strategies that will enhance the quality of mitigation plan for the developed country and developing country. It is hoped that this study will inform and augment existing literature by assisting underdeveloped and developing countries suffering from floods with the preparation of their LHMPs based on the suggestion of this research.

Perceived ambiguity about earthquake and house destruction risks

To create effective risk mitigation policies and improve risk communications, it is important to understand how individuals perceive ambiguity about certain risks. A significant number of studies have demonstrated that an individual’s behavior is sensitive to ambiguity. Therefore, this study explores how Japanese homeowners perceive ambiguity about earthquake and house destruction risks by focusing on two research questions: (1) To what degree do people perceive ambiguity? and (2) What are the factors that affect the degree of perceived ambiguity? We administered a survey to 1200 homeowners in Japan. Respondents were asked to state their subjective probabilities and ambiguities about earthquake and house destruction risks. Next, we examined the socioeconomic characteristics affecting their perceived ambiguities by applying a sample selection model. The findings reveal four aspects related to ambiguity. First, some homeowners perceived considerable ambiguity, while the majority observed small degrees of it. Second, on average, homeowners perceived less ambiguity about house destruction risk compared to earthquake risk. Third, socioeconomic characteristics and house attributes had an effect on the perception of ambiguity. Finally, from the perspective of creating policies that mitigate house destruction risks due to earthquakes, seismic diagnoses can help correct subjective risks and reduce the perceived ambiguity regarding them.

Nitrate contamination of groundwater and identification of its cause in Kumamoto City and neighbouring area in Japan

Kumamoto City that has a population of 0.7 million depends on the only groundwater for the drinking-water demand. Recently, there are growing concerns about a groundwater contamination by nitrate. In this study, we aimed to reveal the situation and cause of nitrate contamination of groundwater in Kumamoto City and its neighbouring area by a combination of water-quality measurement and the analysis of public data. Nitrate concentration in the groundwater varied according to the area-location, however, most groundwater samples showed an increasing trend for the last few decades, and high nitrate concentration (>10 mg-N/L) was detected even in deep-aquifer samples. The results of nitrogen stable isotopic analysis suggested that nitrate contamination was caused by organic nitrogen. At the same time, the analysis based on public statistical data demonstrated that the nitrogen load by waste of domestic animals drastically increased for the last decades. These results strongly suggested that the waste of domestic animals was the most significant cause for the groundwater contamination in the research area.

Autonomous evacuation and local community

Purpose The Aso area of Kumamoto Prefecture and the western part of Oita Prefecture in Japan experienced heavy rainfall from midnight until morning on 12 July 2012. Flooding and landslides caused by this torrential rain killed 31 people and injured 11. This paper aims to analyze a time series of flood risk perception and evacuation behavior, and to identify factors that promote effective autonomous evacuation. Design/methodology/approach A time series of flood risk perception and evacuation behavior following the 2012 flood was developed and systematically analyzed. Differences between the data sets (compiled from survey data) for the evacuated group and the non-evacuated group were statistically evaluated. Then, an evacuation behavior model was developed to simulate which households would be likely to evacuate in different scenarios. The relationship between disaster prevention and activities of a local community were also statistically assessed. Findings This study concludes that an assessment of river conditions and evacuation advice from fellow local community members are the factors that most strongly influence and promote autonomous evacuation. This study also revealed that the everyday activities of a local community have the potential to foster effective disaster prevention and emergency responses if they promote the building of relationships between community members. Originality/value The research focused on actual decision-making and autonomous evacuation behavior. Whereas previous studies were limited to the analysis of activities of disaster prevention on a normal day, this study proved that the usual activity level in local community activities and relationships significantly affected evacuation behavior.

Local Hazard Mitigation Plan (LHMP) is Properly Working?: Evaluation for the LHMP of Kumamoto City

In July 2012, Kumamoto city was hit by a rapid flood result-ing from heavy raining during the early morning. Many citi-zens who have been living near the Shirakawa River werebeing affected. The city suffered substantial property damageand casualties. According to the inspection report by the JapanSociety of Civil Engineering, Western Branch in Kyushu, therewere 23 fatalities, 2 people missing and 209 completely and1262 half-destroyed houses. The total damage cost around Mt.Aso was around 62.1 billion JPY. The Shirakawa River, origi-nates Mt. Aso, goes through Kumamoto city. The city builtmany structures to protect private facilities and citizens. How-ever, it is turned out from the event in 2012 that those structuremethods would not be an adequate way to decrease the dam-age from a rapid flooding in an urbanized area. Specifically,most casualties and fatalities were occurred along the riverineand rapid cliffs of Mt. Aso, to which many structure measure-ments have been applied such as channelization, levee, andsupport. Now, it is the time to find out the compromise betweenAbstract

Factors in Stimulating Evacuation Behavior During Floods

The Northern Kyushu Torrential Rain in July 2012 killed 31 people and destroyed more than 2,100 houses. The maximum rainfall per hour and per 24 hours were recorded at 108 mm and 507.5 mm, respectively. It also caused extensive damage to the Tatsuta area in Kumamoto City. Some residents stayed at home in the flooded area and were rescued by boats or helicopters because an evacuation order was delayed by the local government. On the other hand, many residents evacuated in time. We surveyed this evacuation behavior, awareness of disaster prevention, and the social capital, etc. Next, we analyzed the factors in promoting evacuation on the flood and made the evacuation behavior model. As a result, it was indicated that the factors in promoting evacuation on the flood were to check the river conditions and to be advised to evacuate by their neighbors. Furthermore, it was made clear that social capital in the community affected the practical ability of disaster prevention activities.

Resilient Cities: Plan Evaluation for Floods

A local hazard mitigation plan (LHMP) is the fundamental base to protect individual properties and citizens’ lives from the local chronic and unexpected, overwhelming natural disasters. Each community prepares their own LHMP based on their specific features and conditions since regions are different by geographical features, social norms, and cultural backgrounds. Of those differences, this study focuses on how the developed countries in hazard mitigation consist of LHMP and which part of the plan is strong or weak. This research presents comparisons for the LHMPs communities in three different countries: USA, Japan, and Korea. Indicators used in the research are very common ones that can be applied to the three countries. The result shows us an opportunity not to look at our LHMP as demonstrative administration, but to make it user friendly. As a result, it is strongly believed that more common indicators should be developed into LHMP and the compromise between bottom-up (PPP) and top-down (LHMP) should be discovered.

An Evacuation Simulator based on a Practical Evacuation Drill through Risk Communication

1.はじめに れまで取り組んできた地域防災力向上の取り組みの概要 を示す.次に,これまでのWSを通じて地域防災活動の 必要性を理解してもらった上で行った実践的水害避難訓 練の結果を示す.その水害避難訓練のデータに基づいて シミュレーションの精度を検証しながら水害避難行動シ ミュレータを構築する.最後に構築したシミュレータの リスクコミュニケーションの支援ツールとしての適用性 を考察する. 従来の災害リスク管理は,ハード対策を中心とする行 政の公助に多くを依存してきたが,近年の財政状況の悪 化によりそのハード対策は縮減を余儀なくされている. また,想定した計画規模を超える外力変動は常に存在す るため,ハード対策のみで災害リスク管理を行うのは非 常に危険である.そこで,今後の地域災害リスク管理と して,地域住民や地域コミュニティが主体となって行政 や専門家などと連携を取り,自助・共助の取り組みを実 効性のあるものとすることが重要となってきている.そ こで,近年注目されているのが,災害リスク管理に対す るリスクマネジメント手法の適用1)である. 2.水害リスクマネジメントと支援ツール