S. A. Naroenkov

Astronomical and physical aspects of the Chelyabinsk event (February 15, 2013)

Various observational data including infrasound, seismic, optical (onboard) monitoring, ground video and photo records, and evidence from witnesses of the Chelyabinsk event on February 15, 2013, have been analyzed. The extensive material gathered has provided a base for investigations of the physical properties of the object, the results of which are discussed. A bolide light curve is constructed, which shows a multiplicity of flashes. Estimations of the energy of the meteoroid explosion, which took place in the atmosphere at an altitude of about 23 km, show evidence of the formation of a high-power shock wave equivalent to 300–500 kilotons of TNT. The object diameter corresponding to this energy falls within the range 16–19 m. The trajectory of the meteor is outlined. It is preliminarily concluded that the Chelyabinsk meteorite was a representative the Apollo asteroid family.

Distribution of the near-earth objects

This paper analyzes the distribution of the orbits of near-Earth minor bodies from the data on more than 7500 objects. The distribution of large near-Earth objects (NEOs) with absolute magnitudes of H < 18 is generally consistent with the earlier predictions (Bottke et al., 2002; Stuart, 2003), although we have revealed a previously undetected maximum in the distribution of perihelion distances q near q = 0.5 AU. The study of the orbital distribution for the entire sample of all detected objects has found new significant features. In particular, the distribution of perihelion longitudes seriously deviates from a homogeneous pattern; its variations are roughly 40% of its mean value. These deviations cannot be stochastic, which is confirmed by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test with a more than 0.9999 probability. These features can be explained by the dynamic behavior of the minor bodies related to secular resonances with Jupiter. For the objects with H < 18, the variations in the perihelion longitude distribution are not so apparent. By extrapolating the orbital characteristics of the NEOs with H < 18, we have obtained longitudinal, latitudinal, and radial distributions of potentially hazardous objects in a heliocentric ecliptic coordinate frame. The differences in the orbital distributions of objects of different size appear not to be a consequence of observational selection, but could indicate different sources of the NEOs.

A concept of a space hazard counteraction system: Astronomical aspects

The basic science of astronomy and, primarily, its branch responsible for studying the Solar System, face the most important practical task posed by nature and the development of human civilization—to study space hazards and to seek methods of counteracting them. In pursuance of the joint Resolution of the Federal Space Agency (Roscosmos) and the RAS (Russian Academy of Sciences) Space Council of June 23, 2010, the RAS Institute of Astronomy in collaboration with other scientific and industrial organizations prepared a draft concept of the federal-level program targeted at creating a system of space hazard detection and counteraction. The main ideas and astronomical content of the concept are considered in this article.

Astronomical aspects of cosmic threats: new problems and approaches to asteroid—comet hazard following the chelyabinsk event of February 15, 2013

A new definition of hazardous celestial bodies (HCBs) is introduced, in which the lower limit of the size of a HCB is reduced to 10 m. A new definition for threatening and collisional orbits of DCBs is introduced. The main astronomical factors that must be taken into account when creating systems for the detection of HCBs are analyzed. The most important of these are the uniformity of the distribution of points (regions) for the appearance of HCBs on the celestial sphere in near-Earth space and the practical limit for the velocity of approach of a HCB of 20 km/s (for 90% of bodies). It is shown that the creation of a system for the nearby detection of asteroids and comets arriving from the daytime sky requires the use of a space-based system. A concept for such a system, in which one or several optical telescopes are placed in the vicinity of the libration point L1 for the Sun—Earth system, is developed. Preliminary plans for such a system, called the System for the Detection of Daytime Asteroids (SDDA), are briefly described.

Astronomical aspects of building a system for detecting and monitoring hazardous space objects

In order to meet the practical priority of the mass detection of hazardous celestial bodies (HCBs) during the creation of a system to counteract space hazards (asteroids, comet hazards and space debris), we need clear technical requirements for the detection instruments designed (created). Specially targeted astronomical investigations into the basic properties of the HCB ensemble were conducted to specify such requirements (limitations). The paper presents these findings. As to asteroid and comet hazards, quantitative limitations on the HCB size (50 m) have been introduced and quantitative definitions of threatening and collisional HCB orbits have been proposed for the first time. It is shown that at a lead time of 30 days, it is necessary to detect HCBs at distances of about 1 AU, which corresponds to a telescope’s resolving power of V ∼ 23m. This entails the necessity to design wide-angle large-aperture telescopes. For detecting and monitoring space debris objects and meteoroids in the near-earth space at a time scale of about several days, faster instruments with smaller apertures but larger vision fields are efficient. An example is given of a basic design of a space-based system that takes into account the astronomical requirements discussed.

On the arc length of observations of a small solar system body sufficient to classify it as hazardous

This paper analyzes the accuracy of orbit determination calculated by observations of short arcs. In this case, we imposed the condition that the arc length and/or the distribution of arc observations should provide a confident classification of the orbit of a small celestial body allowing one to distinguish a potentially hazardous body, also including a threat of collision.

On population of hazardous celestial bodies in the near-Earth space

In recent years, following the Chelyabinsk event of February 15, 2013, the lower size limit for presumably dangerous near-Earth objects has been decreased manyfold (essentially, from 140 m to ~10 m). This has drawn an increased attention to the properties of the population of decameter-sized bodies, in particular, the bodies that approach the Earth from the sunward side (daytime sky). The current paper is concerned with various properties of this population. The properties of the ensemble are analyzed using both observational data from other authors and theoretical estimates obtained by cloning virtual bodies. This question is of great practical importance, as the means for detecting such bodies (for example, the SODA project) need to be developed with consideration for the requirements imposed by the population properties. We have shown that the average rate of entering near-Earth space (NES), i.e., at distances less than ~1 million km from the Earth, for decameter-sized and larger bodies from the daytime sky (elongation values of entry points less than 90°) is approximately 620 objects per year for elongation angles of the detection point <90° and approximately 220 objects per year for elongation angles of the detection point <45°.

Dynamical features of hazardous near-Earth objects

We discuss the dynamical features of near-Earth objects moving in dangerous proximity to Earth. We report the computation results for the motions of all observed near-Earth objects over a 600-year-long time period: 300 years in the past and 300 years in the future. We analyze the dynamical features of Earth-approaching objects. In particular, we established that the observed distribution of geocentric velocities of dangerous objects depends on their size. No bodies with geocentric velocities smaller that 5 kms-1 have been found among hazardous objects with absolute magnitudes H <18, whereas 9% of observed objects with H <27 pass near Earth moving at such velocities. On the other hand, we found a tendency for geocentric velocities to increase atH >29. We estimated the distribution of absolute magnitudes of hazardous objects based on our analysis of the data for the asteroids that have passed close to Earth. We inferred the Earth-impact frequencies for objects of different sizes. Impacts of objects with H <18 with Earth occur on average once every 0.53 Myr, and impacts of objects with H <27—once every 130–240 years. We show that currently about 0.1% of all near-Earth objects with diameters greater than 10 m have been discovered. We point out the discrepancies between the estimates of impact rates of Chelyabinsk-type objects, determined from fireball observations and from the data of telescopic asteroid tracking surveys. These estimates can be reconciled assuming that Chelyabinsk-sized asteroids have very low albedos (about 0.02 on average).

Methods and Means of Information-Analytical Assessment of Asteroid and Comet Hazard

This paper contains a description of methods and software tools for creation of the informationanalytical system for monitoring hazardous space objects. The paper presents the structure of the system and a description of its functional components that enable rapid assessment of the NEO hazard and forecast of the effects of dangerous celestial bodies colliding with the Earth. The results of the system’s operation regarding the modeling the motion of space objects are also included in this work.

P/2010 TO20 LINEAR-Grauer: A comet in transition from Centaurs to the Jupiter family

The object P/2010 TO20 LINEAR-Grauer, discovered at a heliocentric distance of over 5 AU, and at first classified as a Trojan, is now believed to be a comet. This paper reports special observations of the object that have allowed a significant refinement of its orbit and investigation of its dynamic evolution. It is shown that P/2010 TO20 LINEAR-Grauer is not a Trojan yet demonstrates unusual dynamic features. In particular, the object moves in a temporary satellite orbit relative to Jupiter over the observation interval. The comet has been in the Hill sphere for about two years and has made one revolution around the planet. The jovicentric distance function has two minima, and the smallest distance is 0.075 AU. Our estimates show that, with a probability of 0.76, the comet is likely to move in a Jupiter family orbit with a perihelion distance of less than 2.5 AU. The average time for such a transition is around forty thousand years.