V. V. Emel’yanenko

Astronomical and physical aspects of the Chelyabinsk event (February 15, 2013)

Various observational data including infrasound, seismic, optical (onboard) monitoring, ground video and photo records, and evidence from witnesses of the Chelyabinsk event on February 15, 2013, have been analyzed. The extensive material gathered has provided a base for investigations of the physical properties of the object, the results of which are discussed. A bolide light curve is constructed, which shows a multiplicity of flashes. Estimations of the energy of the meteoroid explosion, which took place in the atmosphere at an altitude of about 23 km, show evidence of the formation of a high-power shock wave equivalent to 300–500 kilotons of TNT. The object diameter corresponding to this energy falls within the range 16–19 m. The trajectory of the meteor is outlined. It is preliminarily concluded that the Chelyabinsk meteorite was a representative the Apollo asteroid family.

Distribution of the near-earth objects

This paper analyzes the distribution of the orbits of near-Earth minor bodies from the data on more than 7500 objects. The distribution of large near-Earth objects (NEOs) with absolute magnitudes of H < 18 is generally consistent with the earlier predictions (Bottke et al., 2002; Stuart, 2003), although we have revealed a previously undetected maximum in the distribution of perihelion distances q near q = 0.5 AU. The study of the orbital distribution for the entire sample of all detected objects has found new significant features. In particular, the distribution of perihelion longitudes seriously deviates from a homogeneous pattern; its variations are roughly 40% of its mean value. These deviations cannot be stochastic, which is confirmed by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test with a more than 0.9999 probability. These features can be explained by the dynamic behavior of the minor bodies related to secular resonances with Jupiter. For the objects with H < 18, the variations in the perihelion longitude distribution are not so apparent. By extrapolating the orbital characteristics of the NEOs with H < 18, we have obtained longitudinal, latitudinal, and radial distributions of potentially hazardous objects in a heliocentric ecliptic coordinate frame. The differences in the orbital distributions of objects of different size appear not to be a consequence of observational selection, but could indicate different sources of the NEOs.

A concept of a space hazard counteraction system: Astronomical aspects

The basic science of astronomy and, primarily, its branch responsible for studying the Solar System, face the most important practical task posed by nature and the development of human civilization—to study space hazards and to seek methods of counteracting them. In pursuance of the joint Resolution of the Federal Space Agency (Roscosmos) and the RAS (Russian Academy of Sciences) Space Council of June 23, 2010, the RAS Institute of Astronomy in collaboration with other scientific and industrial organizations prepared a draft concept of the federal-level program targeted at creating a system of space hazard detection and counteraction. The main ideas and astronomical content of the concept are considered in this article.

Astronomical aspects of building a system for detecting and monitoring hazardous space objects

In order to meet the practical priority of the mass detection of hazardous celestial bodies (HCBs) during the creation of a system to counteract space hazards (asteroids, comet hazards and space debris), we need clear technical requirements for the detection instruments designed (created). Specially targeted astronomical investigations into the basic properties of the HCB ensemble were conducted to specify such requirements (limitations). The paper presents these findings. As to asteroid and comet hazards, quantitative limitations on the HCB size (50 m) have been introduced and quantitative definitions of threatening and collisional HCB orbits have been proposed for the first time. It is shown that at a lead time of 30 days, it is necessary to detect HCBs at distances of about 1 AU, which corresponds to a telescope’s resolving power of V ∼ 23m. This entails the necessity to design wide-angle large-aperture telescopes. For detecting and monitoring space debris objects and meteoroids in the near-earth space at a time scale of about several days, faster instruments with smaller apertures but larger vision fields are efficient. An example is given of a basic design of a space-based system that takes into account the astronomical requirements discussed.

A study on dynamic processes at late stages in the formation of planetary systems in gas and dust disks

The discovered exoplanetary systems have highly diverse dynamic properties, which differ from those of the Solar System. A single model including planet migration effects and their gravitational interaction is used to investigate the features of dynamic processes that lead to the formation of giant-planet systems with different orbital characteristics. It is shown for a system of four giant planets similar to the Solar System how Type I migration could lead to all the planets being captured into resonant configurations. The resonant motion can continue for a long period of time after the transition to Type II migration and after the dissipation of the gas-and-dust disk. The three-planet system of GJ 876 is used to investigate the migration of the planets inward the orbit of the most massive planet and their capture into low-order resonant configurations under the conditions of Type II migration. A system similar to the exoplanetary system of HD 102272 is used to study the capture into high-order resonances followed by an increase in the orbit’s eccentricity.

On the arc length of observations of a small solar system body sufficient to classify it as hazardous

This paper analyzes the accuracy of orbit determination calculated by observations of short arcs. In this case, we imposed the condition that the arc length and/or the distribution of arc observations should provide a confident classification of the orbit of a small celestial body allowing one to distinguish a potentially hazardous body, also including a threat of collision.

Study of dynamical processes at the final stages of planetary system formation: Resonance motion of giant planets

According to current observational data, planets of many exoplanetary systems have resonant motion. The formation of resonance configurations is studied within a unified model of planetary migration. Planets in the observed systems 24 Sex, HD 37124, HD 73526, HD 82943, HD 128311, HD 160691, Kepler 9, NN Ser, which are moving in the 2: 1 resonance, could have been captured into this resonance due to both the Type I and II migration with a wide range of parameters. The migration conditions are defined for the formation of HD 45364 and HD 200964 that are in the 3: 2 and 4: 3 first-order resonances, correspondingly. The results obtained for HD 200964 show that planets can be captured in the first-order resonances, when the outer-to-inner orbital period ratios for the planets are less than 3: 2, only if Type I migration rates are large, and the mass of at least one planet is substantially less than the modern masses of the observed giant planets. The formation of the HD 102272, HD 108874, HD 181433 and HD 202206 systems with planets in high-order resonances is considered. The capture into these resonances can be realized with very slow Type II migration. Possible bounds for migration parameters are considered. In particular, it has been found that the capture of HD 108874 into the 4: 1 resonance is possible only if the angle between the plane of planetary orbits and the plane of sky is appreciably less than 90°, i.e., the planetary masses are a few times larger than the minimum values. The capture of HD 202206 into the 5: 1 resonance is possible at low migration rates; however, another mechanism is required to explain the high observed eccentricity of the inner planet (for example, strong gravitational interaction between the planets). Resonant configurations can be disrupted due to the interaction between planets and remaining fragments of the planetesimal disk as, for example, may occur in the three-planet system 47 UMa. The specific orbital features observed for this system are explained.

Dynamical features of hazardous near-Earth objects

We discuss the dynamical features of near-Earth objects moving in dangerous proximity to Earth. We report the computation results for the motions of all observed near-Earth objects over a 600-year-long time period: 300 years in the past and 300 years in the future. We analyze the dynamical features of Earth-approaching objects. In particular, we established that the observed distribution of geocentric velocities of dangerous objects depends on their size. No bodies with geocentric velocities smaller that 5 kms-1 have been found among hazardous objects with absolute magnitudes H <18, whereas 9% of observed objects with H <27 pass near Earth moving at such velocities. On the other hand, we found a tendency for geocentric velocities to increase atH >29. We estimated the distribution of absolute magnitudes of hazardous objects based on our analysis of the data for the asteroids that have passed close to Earth. We inferred the Earth-impact frequencies for objects of different sizes. Impacts of objects with H <18 with Earth occur on average once every 0.53 Myr, and impacts of objects with H <27—once every 130–240 years. We show that currently about 0.1% of all near-Earth objects with diameters greater than 10 m have been discovered. We point out the discrepancies between the estimates of impact rates of Chelyabinsk-type objects, determined from fireball observations and from the data of telescopic asteroid tracking surveys. These estimates can be reconciled assuming that Chelyabinsk-sized asteroids have very low albedos (about 0.02 on average).

Kuiper Belt structure as a reflection of the migration process of a planet

One of the main particular features of the structure of the Kuiper Belt is that it contains clusters of objects of small orbital eccentricity and inclination (“cold population”). In order to solve the problem of the origin of the objects, we considered the process of the gravitational interaction of a comparatively small-mass planet with a planetesimal disk. We found that one particular property of the process is that the planet changes its direction of migration. The interaction with the planet results in the transportation of a considerable portion of planetesimals from the inner zone out to the Kuiper Belt. After such a transition of the objects, the planet returns to the inner regions of the planetesimal disk. Numerical simulations show that the reversible migration of a planet of a mass similar to that of the Earth can explain the main properties of the Kuiper Belt’s cold population orbit distribution.

P/2010 TO20 LINEAR-Grauer: A comet in transition from Centaurs to the Jupiter family

The object P/2010 TO20 LINEAR-Grauer, discovered at a heliocentric distance of over 5 AU, and at first classified as a Trojan, is now believed to be a comet. This paper reports special observations of the object that have allowed a significant refinement of its orbit and investigation of its dynamic evolution. It is shown that P/2010 TO20 LINEAR-Grauer is not a Trojan yet demonstrates unusual dynamic features. In particular, the object moves in a temporary satellite orbit relative to Jupiter over the observation interval. The comet has been in the Hill sphere for about two years and has made one revolution around the planet. The jovicentric distance function has two minima, and the smallest distance is 0.075 AU. Our estimates show that, with a probability of 0.76, the comet is likely to move in a Jupiter family orbit with a perihelion distance of less than 2.5 AU. The average time for such a transition is around forty thousand years.