S. F. Milton

Unified Modeling and Prediction of Weather and Climate: A 25-Year Journey

In recent years there has been a growing appreciation of the potential advantages of using a seamless approach to weather and climate prediction. However, what exactly should this mean in practice? To help address this question, we document some of the experiences already gathered over 25 years of developing and using the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) for both weather and climate prediction. Overall, taking a unified approach has given enormous benefits, both scientific and in terms of efficiency, but we also detail some of the challenges it has presented and the approaches taken to overcome them.

Analysis and Reduction of Systematic Errors through a Seamless Approach to Modeling Weather and Climate

Abstract The reduction of systematic errors is a continuing challenge for model development. Feedbacks and compensating errors in climate models often make finding the source of a systematic error difficult. In this paper, it is shown how model development can benefit from the use of the same model across a range of temporal and spatial scales. Two particular systematic errors are examined: tropical circulation and precipitation distribution, and summer land surface temperature and moisture biases over Northern Hemisphere continental regions. Each of these errors affects the model performance on time scales ranging from a few days to several decades. In both cases, the characteristics of the long-time-scale errors are found to develop during the first few days of simulation, before any large-scale feedbacks have taken place. The ability to compare the model diagnostics from the first few days of a forecast, initialized from a realistic atmospheric state, directly with observations has allowed physical def...

A case study of the radiative forcing of persistent contrails evolving into contrail-induced cirrus

over 50,000 km 2 . The shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiative forcing of the contrail-induced cirrus is estimated using a combination of geostationary satellite instruments, numerical weather prediction models, and surface observation sites. As expected, the net radiative effect is a relatively small residual of the much stronger but opposing SW and LW effects, locally totaling around 10 W m �2 during daylight hours and 30 W m �2 during nighttime. A simple estimate indicates that this single localized event may have generated a global-mean radiative forcing of around 7% of recent estimates of the persistent contrail radiative forcing due to the entire global aircraft fleet on a diurnally averaged basis. A single aircraft operating in conditions favorable for persistent contrail formation appears to exert a contrail-induced radiative forcing some 5000 times greater (in W m � 2 km �1 ) than recent estimates of the average persistent contrail radiative forcing from the entire civil aviation fleet. This study emphasizes the need to establish whether similar events are common or highly unusual for a confident assessment of the total climate effect of aviation to be made.

Aerosol optical depths over North Africa: 2. Modeling and model validation

[1] An operational dust forecasting model is developed by including the Met Office Hadley Centre climate model dust parameterization scheme, within a Met Office regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. The model includes parameterizations for dust uplift, dust transport, and dust deposition in six discrete size bins and provides diagnostics such as the aerosol optical depth. The results are compared against surface and satellite remote sensing measurements and against in situ measurements from the Facility for Atmospheric Airborne Measurements for a case study when a strong dust event was forecast. Comparisons are also performed against satellite and surface instrumentation for the entire month of August. The case study shows that this Saharan dust NWP model can provide very good guidance of dust events, as much as 42 h ahead. The analysis of monthly data suggests that the mean and variability in the dust model is also well represented.

Coupled versus uncoupled hindcast simulations of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation in the Year of Tropical Convection

This study investigates the impact of a full interactive ocean on daily initialized 15 day hindcasts of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), measured against a Met Office Unified Model atmosphere control simulation (atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM)) during a 3 month period of the Year of Tropical Convection. Results indicate that the coupled configuration (coupled general circulation model (CGCM)) extends MJO predictability over that of the AGCM, by up to 3–5 days. Propagation is improved in the CGCM, which we partly attribute to a more realistic phase relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and convection. In addition, the CGCM demonstrates skill in representing downwelling oceanic Kelvin and Rossby waves which warm SSTs along their trajectory, with the potential to feedback on the atmosphere. These results imply that an ocean model capable of simulating internal ocean waves may be required to capture the full effect of air-sea coupling for the MJO.

The performance of a global and mesoscale model over the central Arctic Ocean during late summer

Measurements of turbulent fluxes, clouds, radiation, and profiles of mean meteorological parameters, obtained over an ice floe in the central Arctic Ocean during the Arctic Ocean Experiment 2001, are used to evaluate the performance of U.K. Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) and Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) in the lower atmosphere during late summer. Both the latest version of the MetUM and the version operational in 2001 are used in the comparison to gain an insight as to whether updates to the model have improved its performance over the Arctic region. As with previous model evaluations over the Arctic, the pressure, humidity, and wind fields are satisfactorily represented in all three models. The older version of the MetUM underpredicts the occurrence of low-level Arctic clouds, and the liquid and ice cloud water partitioning is inaccurate compared to observations made during SHEBA. In the newer version, simulated ice and liquid water paths are improved, but the occurrence of low-level clouds are overpredicted. Both versions overestimate the amount of radiative heat absorbed at the surface, leading to a significant feedback of errors involving the surface albedo, which causes a large positive bias the surface temperature. Cloud forcing in COAMPS produces similar biases in the downwelling shortwave and longwave radiation fluxes to those produced by UM(G25). The surface albedo parameterization is, however, more realistic, and thus, the total heat flux and surface temperature are more accurate for the majority of the observation period.

Processes Controlling Tropical Tropopause Temperature and Stratospheric Water Vapor in Climate Models

A warm bias in tropical tropopause temperature is found in the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM), in common with most models from phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5). Key dynamical, microphysical, and radiative processes influencing the tropical tropopause temperature and lower-stratospheric water vapor concentrations in climate models are investigated using the MetUM. A series of sensitivity experiments are run to separate the effects of vertical advection, ice optical and microphysical properties, convection, cirrus clouds, and atmospheric composition on simulated tropopause temperature and lower-stratospheric water vapor concentrations in the tropics. The numerical accuracy of the vertical advection, determined in the MetUM by the choice of interpolation and conservation schemes used, is found to be particularly important. Microphysical and radiative processes are found to influence stratospheric water vapor both through modifying the tropical tropopause temperature and through modifying upper-tropospheric water vapor concentrations, allowing more water vapor to be advected into the stratosphere. The representation of any of the processes discussed can act to significantly reduce biases in tropical tropopause temperature and stratospheric water vapor in a physical way, thereby improving climate simulations.

The impact of equilibrating hemispheric albedos on tropical performance in the HadGEM2‐ES coupled climate model

The Earths hemispheric reflectances are equivalent to within ± 0.2 Wm–2, even though the Northern Hemisphere contains a greater proportion of higher reflectance land areas, because of greater cloud cover in the Southern Hemisphere. This equivalence is unlikely to be by chance, but the reasons are open to debate. Here we show that equilibrating hemispheric albedos in the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2-Earth System coupled climate model significantly improves what have been considered longstanding and apparently intractable model biases. Monsoon precipitation biases over all continental land areas, the penetration of monsoon rainfall across the Sahel, the West African monsoon “jump”, and indicators of hurricane frequency are all significantly improved. Mechanistically, equilibrating hemispheric albedos improves the atmospheric cross-equatorial energy transport and increases the supply of tropical atmospheric moisture to the Hadley cell. Furthermore, we conclude that an accurate representation of the cross-equatorial energy transport appears to be critical if tropical performance is to be improved.

A Comparison of Two Dust Uplift Schemes within the Same General Circulation Model

Aeolian dust modelling has improved significantly over the last ten years and many institutions now consistently model dust uplift, transport and deposition in general circulation models (GCMs). However, the representation of dust in GCMs is highly variable between modelling communities due to differences in the uplift schemes employed and the representation of the global circulation that subsequently leads to dust deflation. In this study two different uplift schemes are incorporated in the same GCM. This approach enables a clearer comparison of the dust uplift schemes themselves, without the added complexity of several different transport and deposition models. The global annual mean dust aerosol optical depths (at 550 nm) using two different dust uplift schemes were found to be 0.014 and 0.023—both lying within the estimates from the AeroCom project. However, the models also have appreciably different representations of the dust size distribution adjacent to the West African coast and very different deposition at various sites throughout the globe. The different dust uplift schemes were also capable of influencing the modelled circulation, surface air temperature, and precipitation despite the use of prescribed sea surface temperatures. This has important implications for the use of dust models in AMIP-style (Atmospheric Modelling Intercomparison Project) simulations and Earth-system modelling.

Comparing Tropical Precipitation Simulated by the Met Office NWP and Climate Models with Satellite Observations

AbstractForecasts of precipitation and water vapor made by the Met Office global numerical weather prediction (NWP) model are evaluated using products from satellite observations by the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) for June–September 2011, with a focus on tropical areas (30°S–30°N). Consistent with previous studies, the predicted diurnal cycle of precipitation peaks too early (by ~3 h) and the amplitude is too strong over both tropical ocean and land regions. Most of the wet and dry precipitation biases, particularly those over land, can be explained by the diurnal-cycle discrepancies. An overall wet bias over the equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans and a dry bias over the western Pacific warm pool and India are linked with similar biases in the climate model, which shares common parameterizations with the NWP version. Whereas precipitation biases develop within hours in the NWP model, underesti...