Ann Shelly

Unified Modeling and Prediction of Weather and Climate: A 25-Year Journey

In recent years there has been a growing appreciation of the potential advantages of using a seamless approach to weather and climate prediction. However, what exactly should this mean in practice? To help address this question, we document some of the experiences already gathered over 25 years of developing and using the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) for both weather and climate prediction. Overall, taking a unified approach has given enormous benefits, both scientific and in terms of efficiency, but we also detail some of the challenges it has presented and the approaches taken to overcome them.

Coupled versus uncoupled hindcast simulations of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation in the Year of Tropical Convection

This study investigates the impact of a full interactive ocean on daily initialized 15 day hindcasts of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), measured against a Met Office Unified Model atmosphere control simulation (atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM)) during a 3 month period of the Year of Tropical Convection. Results indicate that the coupled configuration (coupled general circulation model (CGCM)) extends MJO predictability over that of the AGCM, by up to 3–5 days. Propagation is improved in the CGCM, which we partly attribute to a more realistic phase relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and convection. In addition, the CGCM demonstrates skill in representing downwelling oceanic Kelvin and Rossby waves which warm SSTs along their trajectory, with the potential to feedback on the atmosphere. These results imply that an ocean model capable of simulating internal ocean waves may be required to capture the full effect of air-sea coupling for the MJO.

Impact of ocean resolution on coupled air-sea fluxes and large-scale climate

Air-sea fluxes are a crucial component in the energetics of the global climate system. The largest air-sea fluxes occur in regions of high sea surface temperature variability, such as ocean boundary, frontal currents and eddies. In this paper we explore the importance of ocean model resolution to resolve air-sea flux relationships in these areas. We examine the SST-wind stress relationship in high-pass filtered observations and two versions of the Met Office climate model with eddy-permitting and eddy-resolving ocean resolution. Eddy-resolving resolution shows marginal improvement in the relationship over eddy-permitting resolution. However, by focussing on the North Atlantic we show that the eddy-resolving model has significant enhancement of latent heat loss over the North Atlantic Current region, a long-standing model bias. While eddy-resolving resolution does not change the air-sea flux relationship at small scale, the impact on the mean state has important implications for the reliability of future climate projections.