S.J. Metcalf

Adaptation options for marine industries and coastal communities using community structure and dynamics

Identifying effective adaptation strategies for coastal communities dependent on marine resources and impacted by climate change can be difficult due to the dynamic nature of marine ecosystems. The task is more difficult if current and predicted shifts in social and economic trends are considered. Information about social and economic change is often limited to qualitative data. A combination of qualitative and quantitative models provide the flexibility to allow the assessment of current and future ecological and socio-economic risks and can provide information on alternative adaptations. Here, we demonstrate how stakeholder input, qualitative models and Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) can provide semi-quantitative predictions, including uncertainty levels, for the assessment of climate and non-climate-driven change in a case study community. Issues are identified, including the need to increase the capacity of the community to cope with change. Adaptation strategies are identified that alter positive feedback cycles contributing to a continued decline in population, local employment and retail spending. For instance, the diversification of employment opportunities and the attraction of new residents of different ages would be beneficial in preventing further population decline. Some impacts of climate change can be combated through recreational bag or size limits and monitoring of popular range-shifted species that are currently unmanaged, to reduce the potential for excessive removal. Our results also demonstrate that combining BBNs and qualitative models can assist with the effective communication of information between stakeholders and researchers. Furthermore, the combination of techniques provides a dynamic, learning-based, semi-quantitative approach for the assessment of climate and socio-economic impacts and the identification of potential adaptation strategies.

Qualitative Models to Complement Quantitative Ecosystem Models for the Analysis of Data-Limited Marine Ecosystems and Fisheries

Data-limitations increase the uncertainty of quantitative ecosystem models and have the potential to slow the progress of Ecosystem Based Fisheries Management. However, the most important finding of perturbation analysis for managers is arguably simple trends in community abundance. Qualitative models can be used to predict trends following perturbation and require only the signs (+, −, 0) of interactions between variables. To further increase the utility of qualitative models in ecosystem analysis, complementary alternative models, with differing uncertainties and assumptions can be used to assess the robustness of conclusions. Qualitative models and an Ecopath with Ecosim model were produced to investigate the inshore reef ecosystem of eastern Tasmania, Australia. The impact of fisheries, competition between fish species, and increasing urchin abundance on ecosystem dynamics were investigated. Qualitative models highlighted the need to decrease fisheries catches, the potential for cascading effects due to urchin grazing, and the capacity for large rock lobster to allow the regeneration of foliose algae. Ecopath with Ecosim produced consistent conclusions for the majority of qualitative predictions. Inconsistent conclusions were discussed with regard to differences in model calculation and behavior. The process undertaken in this study may allow progress in ecosystem analyses in data-poor situations, which may aid the development and implementation of Ecosystem Based Fisheries Management.

Fishing for the impacts of climate change in the marine sector: a case study

Purpose – This paper aims, using a case study-based research approach, to investigate the role of climate and non-climate drivers in shaping three commercial marine sectors: fishing, aquaculture and marine tourism. Essential elements of climate change research include taking a whole of systems approach, which entails a socio-ecological perspective, and considering climate challenges alongside other challenges faced by resource users. Design/methodology/approach – The analysis is based on information gained using in-depth semi-structured interviews in a coastal community in southeast Australia. Even though climate drivers differ, the economic sectors of this community are representative of many similar coastal communities around Australia. Findings – Results show that at a community level, people involved in, or associated with, marine sectors are aware of climate change impacts on the marine environment. Even though many may not see it as a pressing issue, the potential effect of climate change on busines...