S. K. Solanki

Unusual activity of the Sun during recent decades compared to the previous 11,000 years

Direct observations of sunspot numbers are available for the past four centuries, but longer time series are required, for example, for the identification of a possible solar influence on climate and for testing models of the solar dynamo. Here we report a reconstruction of the sunspot number covering the past 11,400 years, based on dendrochronologically dated radiocarbon concentrations. We combine physics-based models for each of the processes connecting the radiocarbon concentration with sunspot number. According to our reconstruction, the level of solar activity during the past 70 years is exceptional, and the previous period of equally high activity occurred more than 8,000 years ago. We find that during the past 11,400 years the Sun spent only of the order of 10% of the time at a similarly high level of magnetic activity and almost all of the earlier high-activity periods were shorter than the present episode. Although the rarity of the current episode of high average sunspot numbers may indicate that the Sun has contributed to the unusual climate change during the twentieth century, we point out that solar variability is unlikely to have been the dominant cause of the strong warming during the past three decades.

Grand minima and maxima of solar activity: new observational constraints

Aims. Using a reconstruction of sunspot numbers stretching over multiple millennia, we analyze the statistics of the occurrence of grand minima and maxima and set new observational constraints on long-term solar and stellar dynamo models. Methods. We present an updated reconstruction of sunspot number over multiple millennia, from 14 C data by means of a physicsbased model, using an updated model of the evolution of the solar open magnetic flux. A list of grand minima and maxima of solar activity is presented for the Holocene (since 9500 BC) and the statistics of both the length of individual events as well as the waiting time between them are analyzed. Results. The occurrence of grand minima/maxima is driven not by long-term cyclic variability, but by a stochastic/chaotic process. The waiting time distribution of the occurrence of grand minima/maxima deviates from an exponential distribution, implying that these events tend to cluster together with long event-free periods between the clusters. Two different types of grand minima are observed: short (30–90 years) minima of Maunder type and long (>110 years) minima of Sporer type, implying that a deterministic behaviour of the dynamo during a grand minimum defines its length. The duration of grand maxima follows an exponential distribution, suggesting that the duration of a grand maximum is determined by a random process. Conclusions. These results set new observational constraints upon the long-term behaviour of the solar dynamo.

Reconstruction of solar total irradiance since 1700 from the surface magnetic flux

Context. Total solar irradiance changes by about 0.1% between solar activity maximum and minimum. Accurate measurements of this quantity are only available since 1978 and do not provide information on longer-term secular trends. Aims. In order to reliably evaluate the Suns role in recent global climate change, longer time series are, however, needed. They can only be assessed with the help of suitable models. Methods. The total solar irradiance is reconstructed from the end of the Maunder minimum to the present based on variations of the surface distribution of the solar magnetic field. The latter is calculated from the historical record of the sunspot number using a simple but consistent physical model. Results. Our model successfully reproduces three independent data sets: total solar irradiance measurements available since 1978, total photospheric magnetic flux since 1974 and the open magnetic flux since 1868 empirically reconstructed using the geomagnetic aa -index. The model predicts an increase in the solar total irradiance since the Maunder minimum of

Evolution of the Sun's large-scale magnetic field since the Maunder minimum

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Small-scale solar magnetic fields: An overview

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Millennium-scale sunspot number reconstruction: Evidence for an unusually active sun since the 1940s

The most striking feature of the Suns magnetic field is its cyclic behaviour. The number of sunspots, which are dark regions of strong magnetic field on the Suns surface, varies with a period of about 11 years. Superposed on this cycle are secular changes that occur on timescales of centuries and events like the Maunder minimum in the second half of the seventeenth century, when there were very few sunspots. A part of the Suns magnetic field reaches out from the surface into interplanetary space, and it was recently discovered that the average strength of this interplanetary field has doubled in the past 100 years. There has hitherto been no clear explanation for this doubling. Here we present a model describing the long-term evolution of the Suns large-scale magnetic field, which reproduces the doubling of the interplanetary field. The model indicates that there is a direct connection between the length of the sunspot cycle and the secular variations.

Reconstruction of solar irradiance variations in Cycle 23: Is solar surface magnetism the cause?

An overview is given of the observational and the theoretical methods used to investigate solar magnetic fields. It includes an introduction to the Stokes parameters, their radiative transfer in the presence of a magnetic field, and empirical techniques used to measure various properties of solar magnetic features, such as the strength and direction of the magnetic field, magnetic flux, temperature, velocity, size and lifetime. The MHD equations are introduced and some of the most common simplifications used to describe solar magnetic features are outlined.The application of these techniques to small-scale magnetic features is surveyed. The results of empirical and theoretical investigations of small-scale solar magnetic features are reviewed. Current views on their magnetic structure, thermal stratification, velocity field, size, distribution and evolution are presented. Finally, some open questions concerning small-scale solar magnetic fields are listed.

Recent variability of the solar spectral irradiance and its impact on climate modelling

The extension of the sunspot number series backward in time is of considerable interest for dynamo theory, solar, stellar, and climate research. We have used records of the (10)Be concentration in polar ice to reconstruct the average sunspot activity level for the period between the year 850 to the present. Our method uses physical models for processes connecting the (10)Be concentration with the sunspot number. The reconstruction shows reliably that the period of high solar activity during the last 60 years is unique throughout the past 1150 years. This nearly triples the time interval for which such a statement could be made previously.

Determining the inclination of the rotation axis of a Sun-like star

A model of solar irradiance variations is presented which is based on the assumption that solar surface magnetism is responsible for all total irradiance changes on time scales of days to years. A time series of daily magnetograms and empirical models of the thermal structure of magnetic features (sunspots, faculae) are combined to reconstruct total (and spectral) irra- diance from 1996 to 2002. Comparisons with observational data reveal an excellent correspondence, although the model only contains a single free parameter. This provides strong support for the hypothesis that solar irradiance variations are caused by changes in the amount and distribution of magnetic flux at the solar surface.

Evolution of the solar irradiance during the Holocene

The lack of long and reliable time series of solar spectral irradiance (SSI) measurements makes an accurate quantification of solar contributions to recent climate change difficult. Whereas earlier SSI observations and models provided a qualitatively consistent picture of the SSI variability, recent measurements by the SORCE (SOlar Radiation and Climate Experiment) satellite suggest a significantly stronger variability in the ultraviolet (UV) spectral range and changes in the visible and near-infrared (NIR) bands in anti-phase with the solar cycle. A number of recent chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations have shown that this might have significant implications on the Earths atmosphere. Motivated by these results, we summarize here our current knowledge of SSI variability and its impact on Earths climate. We present a detailed overview of existing SSI measurements and provide thorough comparison of models available to date. SSI changes influence the Earths atmosphere, both directly, through changes in shortwave (SW) heating and therefore, temperature and ozone distributions in the stratosphere, and indirectly, through dynamical feedbacks. We investigate these direct and indirect effects using several state-of-the art CCM simulations forced with measured and modelled SSI changes. A unique asset of this study is the use of a common comprehensive approach for an issue that is usually addressed separately by different communities. We show that the SORCE measurements are difficult to reconcile with earlier observations and with SSI models. Of the five SSI models discussed here, specifically NRLSSI (Naval Research Laboratory Solar Spectral Irradiance), SATIRE-S (Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstructions for the Satellite era), COSI (COde for Solar Irradiance), SRPM (Solar Radiation Physical Modelling), and OAR (Osservatorio Astronomico di Roma), only one shows a behaviour of the UV and visible irradiance qualitatively resembling that of the recent SORCE measurements. However, the integral of the SSI computed with this model over the entire spectral range does not reproduce the measured cyclical changes of the total solar irradiance, which is an essential requisite for realistic evaluations of solar effects on the Earths climate in CCMs. We show that within the range provided by the recent SSI observations and semi-empirical models discussed here, the NRLSSI model and SORCE observations represent the lower and upper limits in the magnitude of the SSI solar cycle variation. The results of the CCM simulations, forced with the SSI solar cycle variations estimated from the NRLSSI model and from SORCE measurements, show that the direct solar response in the stratosphere is larger for the SORCE than for the NRLSSI data. Correspondingly, larger UV forcing also leads to a larger surface response. Finally, we discuss the reliability of the available data and we propose additional coordinated work, first to build composite SSI data sets out of scattered observations and to refine current SSI models, and second, to run coordinated CCM experiments.