S. Messner

MESSAGE–MACRO: linking an energy supply model with a macroeconomic module and solving it iteratively

MESSAGE–MACRO is the result of linking a macroeconomic model with a detailed energy supply model. The purpose of the linkage is to consistently reflect the influence of energy supply costs as calculated by the energy supply model in the optimal mix of production factors included in the macroeconomic model. In this article, we describe an automated link of two independently running models. The advantages of this setup over a single, fully integrated model are twofold: First, it is more flexible, leaving the constituent models intact for independent runs, thus making further model development an easier task. Second, the decomposed model solution benefits numerically from having the most non-linearities concentrated in the smaller of the two modules. The emphasis of the paper is on methodology, but we also include an example demonstrating the feedback mechanisms of MESSAGE–MACRO by applying it to two global economic–energy–environment scenarios. The two scenarios are a reference scenario and a scenario that limits the global atmospheric carbon concentration to 550 ppmv. The scenarios are compared in terms of GDP, energy supply and demand, and energy prices.

Long-term strategies for mitigating global warming

This special issue reviews technological options for mitigating carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The options analyzed include efficiency improvements, renewable energies, clean fossil and zero-carbon energy technologies, carbon sequestration and disposal, enhancement of natural carbon sinks (halting deforestation, afforestation, and other sink enhancement options), and geo-engineering measures to compensate for increases in CO2 concentrations. Reduction potentials, costs, and the relative contribution of individual options, as well as their limiting factors and possible timing of introduction and diffusion, are discussed. The study concludes with a discussion of methodological issues and of trade-offs and constraints for implementation strategies to mitigate anthropogenic sources of change in the global carbon cycle.

ERIS: A model prototype with endogenous technological change

This paper describes the ERIS Model Prototype, developed within the EU-TEEM project as a flexible tool to study different modelling approaches on the endogenisation of technological change in energy optimisation models. The basic formulation and several variants are presented. Some illustrative results and insights obtained with the prototype are discussed and some perspectives for its future development outlined.

Model-based decision support in energy planning

Models have become standard tools in energy planning. Fast computers and ever improving optimisation packages now allow us to solve problems within a few minutes that were out of range 20 years ago and that 10 years ago could only be solved in several CPU-hours. Fully interactive data bank systems with standardised user interfaces and on-line data access support easy modifications and adaptations of energy models, retrieval and display of results, as well as coupling decision support tools to all kinds of data available in the system. This article gives a brief overview of the objectives in energy planning, especially with respect to different planning horizons. It reviews the types of models applied to different applications and the requirements such tools have to satisfy. The second part surveys some applications of energy optimisation models. These examples have been chosen to illustrate different application areas of energy models from short-term optimal power supply up to very long-term (100 years) resource allocation and technology choice, and from optimising a municipal district heat system up to an energy model for the whole world.

Technology dynamics in energy systems models with perfect foresight

This article provides a tutorial on how to implement technology dynamics in global optimisation energy models that are widely used for energy systems analysis. The tutorial draws from a series of modelling experiments conducted by several research groups cooperating in the framework of European Union research. The paper expands on issues associating endogenous learning of technologies and model properties.

Natural Gas Trade in Europe and Interactive Decision Analysis

The IIASA International Gas Study focuses on the development of the European energy system with special emphasis on the evolution of the natural gas market. The competitiveness of natural gas in the various energy end-use markets, resource availability, long term gas supply options and implications on international trade are investigated. Studying natural gas trade requires the analysis of complex decision problems with several interest groups involved.

A comparative assessment of different options to reduce CO2 emissions

The IIASA research project on Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies includes the assessment of options and measures for mitigating global CO2 emissions. The basis of this assessment is the comparative inventory of technological and economic measures including efficiency improvement, conservation, enhanced use of low-carbon fuels, carbon free sources of energy and measures for removing carbon from fuels, flue gases and also from the atmosphere such as afforestation, and finally also measures for enhancement of carbon sinks. To include all potential options, the comparison is based on energy end-use accounting for the fully interlinked energy conversion chain up to energy resources. The analysis is supported by a fully interactive data bank system, CO2DB, that is capable of evaluating full energy chains with respect to their economic, technical and environmental parameters. The paper reports energy requirements, cost and CO2 emissions for different energy chains providing industrial drives, cooling and air transport services. At additional cost, emissions can be reduced drastically on all these end-use categories.

Potential effects of emission taxes on CO2 emissions in the OECD and LDCs

A set of existing optimization models, which represent the energy systems of the OECD and LDCs (less developed countries excluding centrally planned economies) with a time horizon to 2020, has been applied to derive first-order estimates of the techno-economic potential for emission reduction. The driving force for the introduction of reduction measures is a scheme of taxes levied on the emission of six pollutants, including the greenhouse gases CO2 and methane. The tax levels introduced are based on taxes discussed by the Swedish government: they are the break-even point to test which measures are cost-effective and which emission levels can be reached at these costs.

An Integrated Programming Package for Multiple-Criteria Decision Analysis

A number of recent developments (for example, the rapid deterioration of European and North American forests, or the increasing conflict between the trade unions, industrial managers and the government over issues such as unemployment, the national debt, wages, etc.) have highlighted the severe shortcomings of the conventional modeling techniques (e.g., econometric models or technoeconomic approaches) used as a basis for decision making.

Synergies and conflicts of sulfur and carbon mitigation strategies

A technology-oriented optimization model of the world energy system is used to analyze sulfur and carbon mitigation strategies with respect to potential synergies and conflicts. A parametric approach with a stepwise reduction of maximum carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations down to 400 ppmv in 2100, combined with stringent limits on sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions, shows positive synergetic effects. Moreover, potential conflicts due to the negative contribution of sulfate aerosols to the climate change problem do not reach significant levels under the conditions investigated.