S. R. Arnold

Crops and climate change: progress, trends, and challenges in simulating impacts and informing adaptation

Assessments of the relationships between crop productivity and climate change rely upon a combination of modelling and measurement. As part of this review, this relationship is discussed in the context of crop and climate simulation. Methods for linking these two types of models are reviewed, with a primary focus on large-area crop modelling techniques. Recent progress in simulating the impacts of climate change on crops is presented, and the application of these methods to the exploration of adaptation options is discussed. Specific advances include ensemble simulations and improved understanding of biophysical processes. Finally, the challenges associated with impacts and adaptation research are discussed. It is argued that the generation of knowledge for policy and adaptation should be based not only on syntheses of published studies, but also on a more synergistic and holistic research framework that includes: (i) reliable quantification of uncertainty; (ii) techniques for combining diverse modelling approaches and observations that focus on fundamental processes; and (iii) judicious choice and calibration of models, including simulation at appropriate levels of complexity that accounts for the principal drivers of crop productivity, which may well include both biophysical and socio-economic factors. It is argued that such a framework will lead to reliable methods for linking simulation to real-world adaptation options, thus making practical use of the huge global effort to understand and predict climate change.

Observations of increased tropical rainfall preceded by air passage over forests

Vegetation affects precipitation patterns by mediating moisture, energy and trace-gas fluxes between the surface and atmosphere. When forests are replaced by pasture or crops, evapotranspiration of moisture from soil and vegetation is often diminished, leading to reduced atmospheric humidity and potentially suppressing precipitation. Climate models predict that large-scale tropical deforestation causes reduced regional precipitation, although the magnitude of the effect is model and resolution dependent. In contrast, observational studies have linked deforestation to increased precipitation locally but have been unable to explore the impact of large-scale deforestation. Here we use satellite remote-sensing data of tropical precipitation and vegetation, combined with simulated atmospheric transport patterns, to assess the pan-tropical effect of forests on tropical rainfall. We find that for more than 60 per cent of the tropical land surface (latitudes 30 degrees south to 30 degrees north), air that has passed over extensive vegetation in the preceding few days produces at least twice as much rain as air that has passed over little vegetation. We demonstrate that this empirical correlation is consistent with evapotranspiration maintaining atmospheric moisture in air that passes over extensive vegetation. We combine these empirical relationships with current trends of Amazonian deforestation to estimate reductions of 12 and 21 per cent in wet-season and dry-season precipitation respectively across the Amazon basin by 2050, due to less-efficient moisture recycling. Our observation-based results complement similar estimates from climate models, in which the physical mechanisms and feedbacks at work could be explored in more detail.

Processes influencing ozone levels in Alaskan forest fire plumes during long-range transport over the North Atlantic

[1] A case of long-range transport of a biomass burning plume from Alaska to Europe is analyzed using a Lagrangian approach. This plume was sampled several times in the free troposphere over North America, the North Atlantic and Europe by three different aircraft during the IGAC Lagrangian 2K4 experiment which was part of the ICARTT/ ITOP measurement intensive in summer 2004. Measurements in the plume showed enhanced values of CO, VOCs and NOy, mainly in form of PAN. Observed O-3 levels increased by 17 ppbv over 5 days. A photochemical trajectory model, CiTTyCAT, was used to examine processes responsible for the chemical evolution of the plume. The model was initialized with upwind data and compared with downwind measurements. The influence of high aerosol loading on photolysis rates in the plume was investigated using in situ aerosol measurements in the plume and lidar retrievals of optical depth as input into a photolysis code (Fast-J), run in the model. Significant impacts on photochemistry are found with a decrease of 18% in O-3 production and 24% in O-3 destruction over 5 days when including aerosols. The plume is found to be chemically active with large O-3 increases attributed primarily to PAN decomposition during descent of the plume toward Europe. The predicted O-3 changes are very dependent on temperature changes during transport and also on water vapor levels in the lower troposphere which can lead to O-3 destruction. Simulation of mixing/dilution was necessary to reproduce observed pollutant levels in the plume. Mixing was simulated using background concentrations from measurements in air masses in close proximity to the plume, and mixing timescales ( averaging 6.25 days) were derived from CO changes. Observed and simulated O-3/CO correlations in the plume were also compared in order to evaluate the photochemistry in the model. Observed slopes change from negative to positive over 5 days. This change, which can be attributed largely to photochemistry, is well reproduced by multiple model runs even if slope values are slightly underestimated suggesting a small underestimation in modeled photochemical O-3 production. The possible impact of this biomass burning plume on O-3 levels in the European boundary layer was also examined by running the model for a further 5 days and comparing with data collected at surface sites, such as Jungfraujoch, which showed small O-3 increases and elevated CO levels. The model predicts significant changes in O-3 over the entire 10 day period due to photochemistry but the signal is largely lost because of the effects of dilution. However, measurements in several other BB plumes over Europe show that O-3 impact of Alaskan fires can be potentially significant over Europe.

Evidence for marine production of monoterpenes

Environmental context. Laboratory incubation experiments and shipboard measurements in the Southern Atlantic Ocean have provided the first evidence for marine production of monoterpenes. Nine marine phytoplankton monocultures were investigated using a GC-MS equipped with an enantiomerically-selective column and found to emit monoterpenes including (–)-/(+)-pinene, limonene and p-ocimene, all of which were previously thought to be exclusively of terrestrial origin. Maximum levels of 100–200 pptv total monoterpenes were encountered when the ship crossed an active phytoplankton bloom. Abstract. Laboratory incubation experiments and shipboard measurements on the Southern Atlantic Ocean have provided the first evidence for marine production of monoterpenes. Nine marine phytoplankton monocultures were investigated using a GC-MS equipped with an enantiomerically-selective column and found to emit at rates, expressed as nmol C10H16 (monoterpene) g [chlorophyll a]–1 day–1, from 0.3 nmol g [chlorophyll a]–1 day–1 for Skeletonema costatum and Emiliania huxleyi to 225.9 nmol g [chlorophyll a]–1 day–1 for Dunaliella tertiolecta. Nine monoterpenes were identified in the sample and not in the control, namely: (–)-/(+)-pinene, myrcene, (+)-camphene, (–)-sabinene, (+)-3-carene, (–)-pinene, (–)-limonene and p-ocimene. In addition, shipboard measurements of monoterpenes in air were made in January–March 2007, over the South Atlantic Ocean. Monoterpenes were detected in marine air sufficiently far from land as to exclude influence from terrestrial sources. Maximum levels of 100–200 pptv total monoterpenes were encountered when the ship crossed an active phytoplankton bloom, whereas in low chlorophyll regions monoterpenes were mostly below detection limit.

Coupling dry deposition to vegetation phenology in the Community Earth System Model: Implications for the simulation of surface O3

Dry deposition is an important removal process controlling surface ozone. We examine the representation of this ozone loss mechanism in the Community Earth System Model. We first correct the dry deposition parameterization by coupling the leaf and stomatal vegetation resistances to the leaf area index, an omission which has adversely impacted over a decade of ozone simulations using both the Model for Ozone and Related chemical Tracers (MOZART) and Community Atmospheric Model-Chem (CAM-Chem) global models. We show that this correction increases O dry deposition velocities over vegetated regions and improves the simulated seasonality in this loss process. This enhanced removal reduces the previously reported bias in summertime surface O simulated over eastern U.S. and Europe. We further optimize the parameterization by scaling down the stomatal resistance used in the Community Land Model to observed values. This in turn further improves the simulation of dry deposition velocity of O, particularly over broadleaf forested regions. The summertime surface O bias is reduced from 30ppb to 14ppb over eastern U.S. and 13ppb to 5ppb over Europe from the standard to the optimized scheme, respectively. O deposition processes must therefore be accurately coupled to vegetation phenology within 3-D atmospheric models, as a first step toward improving surface O and simulating O responses to future and past vegetation changes. Key Points The dry deposition scheme (Wesely, 1989) is corrected and optimized in CESM Dry deposition velocity and surface O3 simulations are significantly improved Linking deposition to LAI is key to simulate O3 responses to vegetation changes.

Chemical composition observed over the mid-atlantic and the detection of pollution signatures far from source regions

The atmospheric composition of the central North Atlantic region has been sampled using the FAAM BAe146 instrumented aircraft during the Intercontinental Transport of Ozone and Precursors (ITOP) campaign, part of the wider International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation (ICARTT). This paper presents an overview of the ITOP campaign. Between late July and early August 2004, twelve flights comprising 72 hours of measurement were made in a region from approximately 20 to 40°W and 33 to 47°N centered on Faial Island, Azores, ranging in altitude from 50 to 9000 m. The vertical profiles of O3 and CO are consistent with previous observations made in this region during 1997 and our knowledge of the seasonal cycles within the region. A cluster analysis technique is used to partition the data set into air mass types with distinct chemical signatures. Six clusters provide a suitable balance between cluster generality and specificity. The clusters are labeled as biomass burning, low level outflow, upper level outflow, moist lower troposphere, marine and upper troposphere. During this summer, boreal forest fire emissions from Alaska and northern Canada were found to provide a major perturbation of tropospheric composition in CO, PAN, organic compounds and aerosol. Anthropogenic influenced air from the continental boundary layer of the USA was clearly observed running above the marine boundary layer right across the mid-Atlantic, retaining high pollution levels in VOCs and sulfate aerosol. Upper level outflow events were found to have far lower sulfate aerosol, resulting from washout on ascent, but much higher PAN associated with the colder temperatures. Lagrangian links with flights of other aircraft over the USA and Europe show that such signatures are maintained many days downwind of emission regions. Some other features of the data set are highlighted, including the strong perturbations to many VOCs and OVOCs in this remote region.

Arctic Air Pollution: New Insights from POLARCAT-IPY

Given the rapid nature of climate change occurring in the Arctic and the difficulty climate models have in quantitatively reproducing observed changes such as sea ice loss, it is important to improve understanding of the processes leading to climate change in this region, including the role of short-lived climate pollutants such as aerosols and ozone. It has long been known that pollution produced from emissions at midlatitudes can be transported to the Arctic, resulting in a winter/spring aerosol maximum known as Arctic haze. However, many uncertainties remain about the composition and origin of Arctic pollution throughout the troposphere; for example, many climate–chemistry models fail to reproduce the strong seasonality of aerosol abundance observed at Arctic surface sites, the origin and deposition mechanisms of black carbon (soot) particles that darken the snow and ice surface in the Arctic is poorly understood, and chemical processes controlling the abundance of tropospheric ozone are not well quant...

Evaluation of the MOCAGE chemistry transport model during the ICARTT/ITOP experiment

Intercontinental Transport of Ozone and Precursors (ITOP), part of International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation (ICARTT), was a large experimental campaign designed to improve our understanding of the chemical transformations within plumes during long-range transport (LRT) of pollution from North America to Europe. This campaign took place in July and August 2004, when a strong fire season occurred in North America. Burning by-products were transported over large distances, sometimes reaching Europe. A chemical transport model, Modelisation de la Chimie Atmospherique Grande Echelle (MOCAGE), with a high grid resolution (0.5° × 0.5°) over the North Atlantic area and a daily inventory of biomass burning emissions over the United States, has been used to simulate the period. By comparing our results with available aircraft in situ measurements and satellite data (MOPITT CO and SCIAMACHY NO2), we show that MOCAGE is capable of representing the main characteristics of the tropospheric ozone-NOx-hydrocarbon chemistry during the ITOP experiment. In particular, high resolution allows the accurate representation of the pathway of exported pollution over the Atlantic, where plumes were transported preferentially at 6 km altitude. The model overestimates OH mixing ratios up to a factor of 2 in the lower troposphere, which results in a global overestimation of hydrocarbons oxidation by-products (PAN and ketones) and an excess of O3 (30–50 ppbv) in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) over the continental United States. Sensitivity study revealed that lightning NO emissions contributed significantly to the NOx budget in the upper troposphere of northeast America during the summer 2004.

Multiannual observations of acetone, methanol, and acetaldehyde in remote tropical atlantic air: implications for atmospheric OVOC budgets and oxidative capacity.

Oxygenated volatile organic compounds (OVOCs) in the atmosphere are precursors to peroxy acetyl nitrate (PAN), affect the tropospheric ozone budget, and in the remote marine environment represent a significant sink of the hydroxyl radical (OH). The sparse observational database for these compounds, particularly in the tropics, contributes to a high uncertainty in their emissions and atmospheric significance. Here, we show measurements of acetone, methanol, and acetaldehyde in the tropical remote marine boundary layer made between October 2006 and September 2011 at the Cape Verde Atmospheric Observatory (CVAO) (16.85° N, 24.87° W). Mean mixing ratios of acetone, methanol, and acetaldehyde were 546 ± 295 pptv, 742 ± 419 pptv, and 428 ± 190 pptv, respectively, averaged from approximately hourly values over this five-year period. The CAM-Chem global chemical transport model reproduced annual average acetone concentrations well (21% overestimation) but underestimated levels by a factor of 2 in autumn and overestimated concentrations in winter. Annual average concentrations of acetaldehyde were underestimated by a factor of 10, rising to a factor of 40 in summer, and methanol was underestimated on average by a factor of 2, peaking to over a factor of 4 in spring. The model predicted summer minima in acetaldehyde and acetone, which were not apparent in the observations. CAM-Chem was adapted to include a two-way sea-air flux parametrization based on seawater measurements made in the Atlantic Ocean, and the resultant fluxes suggest that the tropical Atlantic region is a net sink for acetone but a net source for methanol and acetaldehyde. Inclusion of the ocean fluxes resulted in good model simulations of monthly averaged methanol levels although still with a 3-fold underestimation in acetaldehyde. Wintertime acetone levels were better simulated, but the observed autumn levels were more severely underestimated than in the standard model. We suggest that the latter may be caused by underestimated terrestrial biogenic African primary and/or secondary OVOC sources by the model. The model underestimation of acetaldehyde concentrations all year round implies a consistent significant missing source, potentially from secondary chemistry of higher alkanes produced biogenically from plants or from the ocean. We estimate that low model bias in OVOC abundances in the remote tropical marine atmosphere may result in up to 8% underestimation of the global methane lifetime due to missing model OH reactivity. Underestimation of acetaldehyde concentrations is responsible for the bulk (∼70%) of this missing reactivity.

Biomass burning influence on high-latitude tropospheric ozone and reactive nitrogen in summer 2008: a multi-model analysis based on POLMIP simulations

Abstract. We have evaluated tropospheric ozone enhancement in air dominated by biomass burning emissions at high latitudes (> 50° N) in July 2008, using 10 global chemical transport model simulations from the POLMIP multi-model comparison exercise. In model air masses dominated by fire emissions, ΔO3/ΔCO values ranged between 0.039 and 0.196 ppbv ppbv−1 (mean: 0.113 ppbv ppbv−1) in freshly fire-influenced air, and between 0.140 and 0.261 ppbv ppbv−1 (mean: 0.193 ppbv) in more aged fire-influenced air. These values are in broad agreement with the range of observational estimates from the literature. Model ΔPAN/ΔCO enhancement ratios show distinct groupings according to the meteorological data used to drive the models. ECMWF-forced models produce larger ΔPAN/ΔCO values (4.47 to 7.00 pptv ppbv−1) than GEOS5-forced models (1.87 to 3.28 pptv ppbv−1), which we show is likely linked to differences in efficiency of vertical transport during poleward export from mid-latitude source regions. Simulations of a large plume of biomass burning and anthropogenic emissions exported from towards the Arctic using a Lagrangian chemical transport model show that 4-day net ozone change in the plume is sensitive to differences in plume chemical composition and plume vertical position among the POLMIP models. In particular, Arctic ozone evolution in the plume is highly sensitive to initial concentrations of PAN, as well as oxygenated VOCs (acetone, acetaldehyde), due to their role in producing the peroxyacetyl radical PAN precursor. Vertical displacement is also important due to its effects on the stability of PAN, and subsequent effect on NOx abundance. In plumes where net ozone production is limited, we find that the lifetime of ozone in the plume is sensitive to hydrogen peroxide loading, due to the production of HOx from peroxide photolysis, and the key role of HO2 + O3 in controlling ozone loss. Overall, our results suggest that emissions from biomass burning lead to large-scale photochemical enhancement in high-latitude tropospheric ozone during summer.