S. Raja Sethu Durai

Optimal hedge ratio and hedging effectiveness of stock index futures: evidence from India

In a free capital mobile world with increased volatility, the need for an optimal hedge ratio and its effectiveness is warranted to design a better hedging strategy with future contracts. This study analyses four competing time series econometric models with daily data on NSE Stock Index Futures and S&P CNX Nifty Index. The effectiveness of the optimal hedge ratios is examined through the mean returns and the average variance reduction between the hedged and the unhedged positions for 1-, 5-, 10- and 20-day horizons. The results clearly show that the time-varying hedge ratio derived from the multivariate GARCH model has higher mean return and higher average variance reduction across hedged and unhedged positions. Even though not outperforming the GARCH model, the simple OLS-based strategy performs well at shorter time horizons. The potential use of this multivariate GARCH model cannot be sublined because of its estimation complexities. However, from a cost of computation point of view, one can equally consider the simple OLS strategy that performs well at the shorter time horizons.

Empirical relationship between the dividend and investment decision: do emerging market firms behave differently?

This study provides an emerging economy perspective towards the Miller and Modigliani (1961) separation principle. Applying a panel Granger causality test proposed by Hurlin and Venet (2004) to the dividend and investment data of 265 Indian manufacturing firms for 1992–2004, the M–M hypothesis is rejected and evidence found in favour of the joint determination of financing and investment decisions.

Asymmetric beta in bull and bear market conditions: evidences from India

The significant role played by beta in various aspects of financial decision-making has forced people from small investors to investment bankers to rethink on beta in the era of globalization with ever changing market conditions. Standing on the edge of a free capital mobile world with technological innovations happening in no time, it is imperative to understand the stability of beta in accordance to these changes and also it would augments an efficient investment decisions with additional information on the beta. This study examined the stability of beta for India from a developing country perspective with a series of possible competing definitions of market conditions and alternative model specification. The results strongly validate Fabozzi and Francis (1977) claim of stable beta for individual stocks in all market conditions.

Sectoral effects of disinflation: Evidence from India

This paper makes an attempt to measure sacrifice ratios for the farm and non-farm sector as disinflation policy is believed to have differential impact on these sectors. Using the non-parametric approach of Ball (1994), five disinflation episodes are identified for India over the period from 1950–51 to 2009–10. These disinflations are largely due to contractionary monetary policy pursued by the Reserve Bank of India. The estimates of the sacrifice ratio and the presence of persistence and hysteresis effects indicate that disinflationary monetary policy is more harmful to output growth in the non-farm sector. In contrast, the negative sacrifice ratio in the farm sector implies that there is output gain during disinflationary periods. This output gain in the farm sector seems to have been driven by those factors which are independent of contractionary monetary shocks. These evidences also suggest that use of aggregate time series data might produce errors in the measurement of sacrifice ratios.

Does inflation asymmetrically affect relative price variability

The U-shaped relationship between inflation and price dispersion around nonzero inflation rate is due to the use of aggregate measure of relative price variability (RPV), which amounts to specification errors in a piecewise linear regression models. However, the true underlying relationship between inflation and inflation-induced RPV is found to be U-shaped around zero inflation and inflation seems to have asymmetric impact on price dispersion as predicted by menu cost models.

On the Methodology of Measuring Core Inflation

We propose a new methodology to construct core inflation which is, unlike other conventional methods, not based on ad hoc elimination/trimming of prices. The empirical results suggest that the proposed measure of core inflation is highly correlated with headline inflation and is noise free; hence less volatile. The underlying inflation derived from such method is found to be a powerful leading indicator of headline inflation while other conventional measures do not seem to reflect such fundamental property of core inflation.

Price Rigidity, Inflation and the Distribution of Relative Price Changes

This study examines whether skewness of the cross-sectional distribution of relative price changes is positively associated with aggregate inflation as predicted by the menu cost model of Ball and Mankiw (1994, 1995). Further, the study examines the size and frequency of price changes across various commodities and the distribution of relative price changes. The results from highly disaggregated Indian wholesale price index (WPI) data suggest that the skewness of relative price changes explains a significant proportion of short-run fluctuations in aggregate inflation. More importantly, the results indicate that the average size of price increases is greater than the size of price decreases implying downwards rigidity in the prices of various commodities. JEL Classification: E30, E31, E52

Income convergence in India: evidence from nonparametric panel data

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate convergence hypothesis in a balanced panel of 22 Indian states for the time period of 1980-81 to 2010-11 by applying nonparametric model setting in a panel framework. Design/methodology/approach The present study uses nonparametric and semi-parametric panel data methods to test the absolute and conditional convergence, respectively, and examines the income convergence using nonparametric panel data methods with state specific effects taken into consideration. These models are being estimated by the iterative process for a balanced panel of state wise per capita income and other conditioning variables for the time period of 1980-81 to 2010-11. For removing the fixed effects, the authors follow within transformation procedure according to the feasibility of the problem. Since convergence is estimated by regressing dependent variable on initial level of independent variable (as growth rate of income and per capita income in this case). So using usual transformation for removing the fixed effects is not feasible because by doing so the authors may end up with singular matrices on both sides of the regression model. Findings The results reject the null of parametric specification for both absolute as well as conditional convergence model. As to the outcome of the empirical analysis, the findings reveal that the Indian states are diverging in absolute sense and converging on conditional basis. Convergence happens to be consistent and conditional upon public expenditure, power generation share of primary and tertiary sector to Gross State Domestic Product. Originality/value The originality of the study is in its application of advanced methodology to highlight the model misspecifications while testing the convergence hypothesis in earlier literature.

Income disparities across Indian States: evidence from Kuznets curve and shift analysis

Purpose - – This study aims to analyse the patterns of growth and income disparities and to have a future insight about its behaviour across 22 Indian states for the period from 1980-1981 to 2010-2011. Design/methodology/approach - – This paper uses a three-stage methodological procedures to arrive at the results. First, the distributional aspect of per capita income has been analyzed by using Kuznets’s Inverted-U Hypothesis. Second, to analyse the relative performance across India states, the Shift Analysis Technique has been utilized. Finally, analyzing the future aspect of the growth and disparities among the low-, middle- and high-income states a catch process has been performed. Findings - – The empirical results rejects the Kuznets’s hypothesis for both aggregate and sectoral incomes across Indian states. The relative performance of Indian states shows signs of decreasing the income disparities over the time with a positive shift. Finally, the catch-up process among the low-, middle- and high-income states suggests different time bands for each group to narrow down or eliminate the income disparities in future. Originality/value - – This study contributes to the literature in three ways. First, examining the sectoral growth and disparities across Indian states by testing the Kuznets’s Inverted-U Hypothesis to highlight the specification issue; second, to measure the relative performance of Indian states over the time that can help us to find out the individual states that are purely responsible for income disparities in India. Finally, estimates of catch-up speed among Indian states provide a prediction about their behaviour to eradicate the disparities in future.