Sartaj Rasool Rather

Does inflation asymmetrically affect relative price variability

The U-shaped relationship between inflation and price dispersion around nonzero inflation rate is due to the use of aggregate measure of relative price variability (RPV), which amounts to specification errors in a piecewise linear regression models. However, the true underlying relationship between inflation and inflation-induced RPV is found to be U-shaped around zero inflation and inflation seems to have asymmetric impact on price dispersion as predicted by menu cost models.

On the Methodology of Measuring Core Inflation

We propose a new methodology to construct core inflation which is, unlike other conventional methods, not based on ad hoc elimination/trimming of prices. The empirical results suggest that the proposed measure of core inflation is highly correlated with headline inflation and is noise free; hence less volatile. The underlying inflation derived from such method is found to be a powerful leading indicator of headline inflation while other conventional measures do not seem to reflect such fundamental property of core inflation.

Price Rigidity, Inflation and the Distribution of Relative Price Changes

This study examines whether skewness of the cross-sectional distribution of relative price changes is positively associated with aggregate inflation as predicted by the menu cost model of Ball and Mankiw (1994, 1995). Further, the study examines the size and frequency of price changes across various commodities and the distribution of relative price changes. The results from highly disaggregated Indian wholesale price index (WPI) data suggest that the skewness of relative price changes explains a significant proportion of short-run fluctuations in aggregate inflation. More importantly, the results indicate that the average size of price increases is greater than the size of price decreases implying downwards rigidity in the prices of various commodities. JEL Classification: E30, E31, E52

Inflation and the Dispersion of Relative Prices: A Case for 4 % Solution

Unlike earlier literature that documented positive association between inflation and the dispersion of relative prices over time, the empirical evidence from this study suggests that the relative price dispersion increases in response to the deviation of inflation from certain threshold/target level in either direction rather than inflation per se. The striking feature of the empirical evidence from United States and Japan is that the inflation rate at which the dispersion of relative prices is minimised turn out to be 4%; hence, supporting the proposal of 4% inflation target for both the countries.

Asymmetric Impact of Relative Price Shocks in Presence of Trend Inflation

ABSTRACT This study examines whether skewness of cross-sectional distribution of relative price shocks has asymmetric impact on aggregate inflation. The empirical evidence from major economies suggests that the positively skewed shocks have different impact from that of negatively skewed shocks on aggregate inflation. In particular, the empirical results indicate that this asymmetry in the impact of relative price shocks mainly depends on the nature of trend that inflation exhibits for a given period. The crucial inference that emerges from the empirical findings is that the traditional approach of using a simple linear regression model, to examine the relationship between inflation and skewness in presence of trend inflation, is not appropriate as it may lead to misleading conclusions.

MONEY AND INFLATION IN INDIA: EVIDENCE FROM P‐STAR MODEL

This study uses P‐star model to examine the role of money in explaining inflation in India. In particular, we compare the performance of traditional Phillips curve approach against P‐star model in forecasting inflation. Moreover, the study estimates P‐star model using the alternative measures of money such as simple sum and Divisia M3, to examine the relevance of aggregation theoretic monetary aggregates in explaining inflation. The empirical results indicate that P‐star model with real money gap has an edge over traditional Phillips curve approach in forecasting inflation. More importantly, we found that the P‐star model estimated with Divisia real money gap performs better than its simple sum counterpart. These empirical findings suggest that the changes in real money gap play a crucial role in explaining inflation in India.