S. Randolph Kawa

When will the Antarctic ozone hole recover

The Antarctic ozone hole develops each year and culminates by early spring (late September - early October). Antarctic ozone values have been monitored since 1979 using satellite observations from the TOMS instrument. The severity of the hole has been assessed from TOMS using the minimum total ozone value from the October monthly mean (depth of the hole) and by calculating the average area coverage during this September-October period. Ozone is mainly destroyed by halogen (chlorine and bromine) catalytic cycles, and these losses are modulated by temperature variations in the collar of the polar lower stratospheric vortex. In this talk, I will show the relationships of halogens and temperature to both the size and depth of the hole. Because atmospheric halogen levels are responding to international agreements that limit or phase out production, the amount of halogens in the stratosphere should decrease over the next few decades. Using projections of halogen levels combined with age-of-air estimates, we find that the ozone hole is recovering at an extremely slow rate and that large ozone holes will regularly recur over the next 2 decades. The ozone hole will begin to show first signs of recovery in about 2023, and the hole will fully recover to pre-1980 levels in approximately 2070. This 2070 recovery is 20 years later than recent projections. I will also discuss current assessments of mid-latitude ozone recovery.

Sensitivity studies for space-based measurement of atmospheric total column carbon dioxide by reflected sunlight

The feasibility of making space-based carbon dioxide (CO2) measurements for global and regional carbon-cycle studies is explored. With the proposed detection method, we use absorption of reflected sunlight near 1.58 microm. The results indicate that the small (degrees 1%) changes in CO2 near the Earths surface are detectable provided that an adequate sensor signal-to-noise ratio and spectral resolution are achievable. Modification of the sunlight path by scattering of aerosols and cirrus clouds could, however, lead to systematic errors in the CO2 column retrieval; therefore ancillary aerosol and cloud data are important to reduce errors. Precise measurement of surface pressure and good knowledge of the atmospheric temperature profile are also required.

Mapping of CO2 at high spatiotemporal resolution using satellite observations: Global distributions from OCO-2

[1] Satellite observations of CO2 offer new opportunities to improve our understanding of the global carbon cycle. Using such observations to infer global maps of atmospheric CO2 and their associated uncertainties can provide key information about the distribution and dynamic behavior of CO2, through comparison to atmospheric CO2 distributions predicted from biospheric, oceanic, or fossil fuel flux emissions estimates coupled with atmospheric transport models. Ideally, these maps should be at temporal resolutions that are short enough to represent and capture the synoptic dynamics of atmospheric CO2. This study presents a geostatistical method that accomplishes this goal. The method can extract information about the spatial covariance structure of the CO2 field from the available CO2 retrievals, yields full coverage (Level 3) maps at high spatial resolutions, and provides estimates of the uncertainties associated with these maps. The method does not require information about CO2 fluxes or atmospheric transport, such that the Level 3 maps are informed entirely by available retrievals. The approach is assessed by investigating its performance using synthetic OCO-2 data generated from the PCTM/ GEOS-4/CASA-GFED model, for time periods ranging from 1 to 16 days and a target spatial resolution of 1 � latitude � 1.25 � longitude. Results show that global CO2 fields from OCO-2 observations can be predicted well at surprisingly high temporal resolutions. Even one-day Level 3 maps reproduce the large-scale features of the atmospheric CO2 distribution, and yield realistic uncertainty bounds. Temporal resolutions of two to four days result in the best performance for a wide range of investigated scenarios, providing maps at an order of magnitude higher temporal resolution relative to the monthly or seasonal Level 3 maps typically reported in the literature.

An analysis of tropical transport: Influence of the quasi‐biennial oscillation

An analysis of over 4 years of Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) measurements of CH4, HF, O3, and zonal wind are used to study the influence of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on constituent transport in the tropics. At the equator, spectral analysis of the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) observations reveals QBO signals in constituent and temperature fields at altitudes between 20 and 45 km. Between these altitudes, the location of the maximum QBO amplitude roughly corresponds with the location of the largest vertical gradient in the constituent field. Thus, at 40 km where CH4 and HF have strong vertical gradients, QBO signals are correspondingly large, while at lower altitudes where the vertical gradients are weak, so are the QBO variations. Similarly, ozone, which is largely under dynamical control below 30 km in the tropics, has a strong QBO signal in the region of sharp vertical gradients (∼28 km) below the ozone peak. Above 35 km, annual and semi-annual variations are also found to be important components of the variability of long-lived tracers. Therefore, above 30 km, the variability in CH4 and HF at the equator is represented by a combination of semiannual, annual, and QBO timescales. A one-dimensional vertical transport model is used to further investigate the influence of annual and QBO variations on tropical constituent fields. QBO-induced vertical motions are calculated from observed high resolution Doppler imager (HRDI) zonal winds at the equator, while the mean annually varying tropical ascent rate is obtained from the Goddard two-dimensional model. Model simulations of tropical CH4 confirm the importance of both the annual cycle and the QBO in describing the HALOE CH4 observations above 30 km. Estimates of the tropical ascent rate and the variation due to the annual cycle and QBO are also discussed.

Development of the Antarctic ozone hole

A Lagrangian chemical model is used to simulate the formation of the Antarctic “ozone hole”: the decrease in high-latitude southern hemisphere ozone between mid-August and mid-September of each year. The model benchmark simulation of HNO3, ClONO2, ClO, and ozone for September 17, 1992, is in good agreement with UARS observations. Simulations of the ozone column over the years 1979–1994 show quantitative agreement with the secular decline in Antarctic ozone and change in the area of the ozone hole as observed by the total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS). The model calculates that the Antarctic ozone loss and ozone hole area both increased linearly with time after the early 1970s until the early 1990s. After the early 1990s the growth of the area of the ozone hole slows as a result of the slowing of the growth rate of total inorganic chlorine. A hypothetical doubling of the 1992 atmospheric chlorine amount would expand the ozone hole to the very edge of the polar vortex.

Detectability of CO2 flux signals by a space-based lidar mission

Satellite observations of carbon dioxide (CO2) offer novel and distinctive opportunities for improving our quantitative understanding of the carbon cycle. Prospective observations include those from space-based lidar such as the active sensing of CO2 emissions over nights, days, and seasons (ASCENDS) mission. Here we explore the ability of such a mission to detect regional changes in CO2 fluxes. We investigate these using three prototypical case studies, namely, the thawing of permafrost in the northern high latitudes, the shifting of fossil fuel emissions from Europe to China, and changes in the source/sink characteristics of the Southern Ocean. These three scenarios were used to design signal detection studies to investigate the ability to detect the unfolding of these scenarios compared to a baseline scenario. Results indicate that the ASCENDS mission could detect the types of signals investigated in this study, with the caveat that the study is based on some simplifying assumptions. The permafrost thawing flux perturbation is readily detectable at a high level of significance. The fossil fuel emission detectability is directly related to the strength of the signal and the level of measurement noise. For a nominal (lower) fossil fuel emission signal, only the idealized noise-free instrument test case produces a clearly detectable signal, while experiments with more realistic noise levels capture the signal only in the higher (exaggerated) signal case. For the Southern Ocean scenario, differences due to the natural variability in the El Nino–Southern Oscillation climatic mode are primarily detectable as a zonal increase.

On the Ability of Space- Based Passive and Active Remote Sensing Observations of CO2 to Detect Flux Perturbations to the Carbon Cycle

Space-borne observations of CO2 are vital to gaining understanding of the carbon cycle in regions of the world that are difficult to measure directly, such as the tropical terrestrial biosphere, the high northern and southern latitudes, and in developing nations such as China. Measurements from passive instruments such as GOSAT and OCO-2, however, are constrained by solar zenith angle limitations as well as sensitivity to the presence of clouds and aerosols. Active measurements such as those in development for the Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days and Seasons (ASCENDS) mission show strong potential for making measurements in the high-latitude winter and in cloudy regions. In this work we examine the enhanced flux constraint provided by the improved coverage from an active measurement such as ASCENDS. The simulation studies presented here show that with sufficient precision, ASCENDS will detect permafrost thaw and fossil fuel emissions shifts at annual and seasonal time scales, even in the presence of transport errors, representativeness errors, and biogenic flux errors. While OCO-2 can detect some of these perturbations at the annual scale, the seasonal sampling provided by ASCENDS provides the stronger constraint. Plain Language Summary Active and passive remote sensors show the potential to provide unprecedented information on the carbon cycle. With the all-season sampling, active remote sensors are more capable of constraining high-latitude emissions. The reduced sensitivity to cloud and aerosol also makes active sensors more capable of providing information in cloudy and polluted scenes with sufficient accuracy. These experiments account for errors that are fundamental to the top-down approach for constraining emissions, and even including these sources of error, we show that satellite remote sensors are critical for understanding the carbon cycle.

Sensitivity studies for space-based laser measurements of atmospheric CO 2 concentration towards future NASA mission ASCENDS

NASA Goddard Space Flight Center is developing an active laser approach for global atmospheric CO2 concentration measurement from space as a candidate for NASAs future mission ASCENDS - the Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days, and Seasons. This pulsed laser approach provides several advantages with respect to passive approaches and other laser techniques toward high-precision CO2 concentration measurement from space. Sensitivity studies conducted for this development identify the best line and ideal wavelengths for the lower atmospheric CO2 and O2 abundance measurement that allow the estimate of CO2 concentration in the lower atmosphere associated with CO2 sources and sinks. Studies also identify the ancillary data requirements, laser system and other measurement optimizations in order to achieve the high-precision measurement.

Progress on passive sensor for ultra-precise measurement of carbon dioxide from space

Global measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) are needed to resolve significant discrepancies that exist in our understanding of the global carbon budget and, therefore, mans role in global climate change. The science measurement requirements for CO2 are extremely demanding (precision <0.3%) No atmospheric chemical species has ever been measured from space with this precision. We are developing a novel application of a Fabry-Perot interferometer to detect spectral absorption of reflected sunlight by CO2 and O2 in the atmosphere. Preliminary design studies indicate that the method will be able to achieve the sensitivity and signal-to-noise required to measure column CO2 at the target specification. We are presently engaged in the construction of a prototype instrument for deployment on an aircraft to test the instrument performance and our ability to retrieve the data in the real atmosphere. In the first 6 months we have assembled a laboratory bench system to begin testing the optical and electronic components. We are also undertaking some measurements of signal and noise levels for actual sunlight reflecting from the ground. We shall present results from some of these ground based studies and discuss their implications for a space based system.