Scott C. Doney

Anthropogenic ocean acidification over the twenty-first century and its impact on calcifying organisms

Todays surface ocean is saturated with respect to calcium carbonate, but increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are reducing ocean pH and carbonate ion concentrations, and thus the level of calcium carbonate saturation. Experimental evidence suggests that if these trends continue, key marine organisms—such as corals and some plankton—will have difficulty maintaining their external calcium carbonate skeletons. Here we use 13 models of the ocean–carbon cycle to assess calcium carbonate saturation under the IS92a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario for future emissions of anthropogenic carbon dioxide. In our projections, Southern Ocean surface waters will begin to become undersaturated with respect to aragonite, a metastable form of calcium carbonate, by the year 2050. By 2100, this undersaturation could extend throughout the entire Southern Ocean and into the subarctic Pacific Ocean. When live pteropods were exposed to our predicted level of undersaturation during a two-day shipboard experiment, their aragonite shells showed notable dissolution. Our findings indicate that conditions detrimental to high-latitude ecosystems could develop within decades, not centuries as suggested previously.

Oceanic vertical mixing: A review and a model with a nonlocal boundary layer parameterization

If model parameterizations of unresolved physics, such as the variety of upper ocean mixing processes, are to hold over the large range of time and space scales of importance to climate, they must be strongly physically based. Observations, theories, and models of oceanic vertical mixing are surveyed. Two distinct regimes are identified: ocean mixing in the boundary layer near the surface under a variety of surface forcing conditions (stabilizing, destabilizing, and wind driven), and mixing in the ocean interior due to internal waves, shear instability, and double diffusion (arising from the different molecular diffusion rates of heat and salt). Mixing schemes commonly applied to the upper ocean are shown not to contain some potentially important boundary layer physics. Therefore a new parameterization of oceanic boundary layer mixing is developed to accommodate some of this physics. It includes a scheme for determining the boundary layer depth h, where the turbulent contribution to the vertical shear of a bulk Richardson number is parameterized. Expressions for diffusivity and nonlocal transport throughout the boundary layer are given. The diffusivity is formulated to agree with similarity theory of turbulence in the surface layer and is subject to the conditions that both it and its vertical gradient match the interior values at h. This nonlocal “K profile parameterization” (KPP) is then verified and compared to alternatives, including its atmospheric counterparts. Its most important feature is shown to be the capability of the boundary layer to penetrate well into a stable thermocline in both convective and wind-driven situations. The diffusivities of the aforementioned three interior mixing processes are modeled as constants, functions of a gradient Richardson number (a measure of the relative importance of stratification to destabilizing shear), and functions of the double-diffusion density ratio, Rρ. Oceanic simulations of convective penetration, wind deepening, and diurnal cycling are used to determine appropriate values for various model parameters as weak functions of vertical resolution. Annual cycle simulations at ocean weather station Papa for 1961 and 1969–1974 are used to test the complete suite of parameterizations. Model and observed temperatures at all depths are shown to agree very well into September, after which systematic advective cooling in the ocean produces expected differences. It is argued that this cooling and a steady salt advection into the model are needed to balance the net annual surface heating and freshwater input. With these advections, good multiyear simulations of temperature and salinity can be achieved. These results and KPP simulations of the diurnal cycle at the Long-Term Upper Ocean Study (LOTUS) site are compared with the results of other models. It is demonstrated that the KPP model exchanges properties between the mixed layer and thermocline in a manner consistent with observations, and at least as well or better than alternatives.

Climate-carbon cycle feedback analysis: Results from the C4MIP model intercomparison

Eleven coupled climate–carbon cycle models used a common protocol to study the coupling between climate change and the carbon cycle. The models were forced by historical emissions and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 anthropogenic emissions of CO2 for the 1850–2100 time period. For each model, two simulations were performed in order to isolate the impact of climate change on the land and ocean carbon cycle, and therefore the climate feedback on the atmospheric CO2 concentration growth rate. There was unanimous agreement among the models that future climate change will reduce the efficiency of the earth system to absorb the anthropogenic carbon perturbation. A larger fraction of anthropogenic CO2 will stay airborne if climate change is accounted for. By the end of the twenty-first century, this additional CO2 varied between 20 and 200 ppm for the two extreme models, the majority of the models lying between 50 and 100 ppm. The higher CO2 levels led to an additional climate warming ranging between 0.1° and 1.5°C. All models simulated a negative sensitivity for both the land and the ocean carbon cycle to future climate. However, there was still a large uncertainty on the magnitude of these sensitivities. Eight models attributed most of the changes to the land, while three attributed it to the ocean. Also, a majority of the models located the reduction of land carbon uptake in the Tropics. However, the attribution of the land sensitivity to changes in net primary productivity versus changes in respiration is still subject to debate; no consensus emerged among the models.

The Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3)

Abstract The Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) has recently been developed and released to the climate community. CCSM3 is a coupled climate model with components representing the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land surface connected by a flux coupler. CCSM3 is designed to produce realistic simulations over a wide range of spatial resolutions, enabling inexpensive simulations lasting several millennia or detailed studies of continental-scale dynamics, variability, and climate change. This paper will show results from the configuration used for climate-change simulations with a T85 grid for the atmosphere and land and a grid with approximately 1° resolution for the ocean and sea ice. The new system incorporates several significant improvements in the physical parameterizations. The enhancements in the model physics are designed to reduce or eliminate several systematic biases in the mean climate produced by previous editions of CCSM. These include new treatments of cloud processes, aerosol ...

Ocean acidification: the other CO2 problem.

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), primarily from human fossil fuel combustion, reduces ocean pH and causes wholesale shifts in seawater carbonate chemistry. The process of ocean acidification is well documented in field data, and the rate will accelerate over this century unless future CO2 emissions are curbed dramatically. Acidification alters seawater chemical speciation and biogeochemical cycles of many elements and compounds. One well-known effect is the lowering of calcium carbonate saturation states, which impacts shell-forming marine organisms from plankton to benthic molluscs, echinoderms, and corals. Many calcifying species exhibit reduced calcification and growth rates in laboratory experiments under high-CO2 conditions. Ocean acidification also causes an increase in carbon fixation rates in some photosynthetic organisms (both calcifying and noncalcifying). The potential for marine organisms to adapt to increasing CO2 and broader implications for ocean ecosystems are not well known; both are high priorities for future research. Although ocean pH has varied in the geological past, paleo-events may be only imperfect analogs to current conditions.

Riverine coupling of biogeochemical cycles between land, oceans, and atmosphere

Streams, rivers, lakes, and other inland waters are important agents in the coupling of biogeochemical cycles between continents, atmosphere, and oceans. The depiction of these roles in global-scale assessments of carbon (C) and other bioactive elements remains limited, yet recent findings suggest that C discharged to the oceans is only a fraction of that entering rivers from terrestrial ecosystems via soil respiration, leaching, chemical weathering, and physical erosion. Most of this C influx is returned to the atmosphere from inland waters as carbon dioxide (CO2) or buried in sedimentary deposits within impoundments, lakes, floodplains, and other wetlands. Carbon and mineral cycles are coupled by both erosion–deposition processes and chemical weathering, with the latter producing dissolved inorganic C and carbonate buffering capacity that strongly modulate downstream pH, biological production of calcium-carbonate shells, and CO2 outgassing in rivers, estuaries, and coastal zones. Human activities substantially affect all of these processes.

Upper ocean ecosystem dynamics and iron cycling in a global three-dimensional model

A global 3-D marine ecosystem model with several key phytoplankton functional groups, multiple limiting nutrients, explicit iron cycling, and a mineral ballast/organic matter parameterization is run within a global ocean circulation model. The coupled biogeochemistry/ecosystem/circulation (BEC) model reproduces known basin-scale patterns of primary production, biogenic silica production, calcification, chlorophyll, macronutrient and dissolved iron concentrations. The model captures observed High Nitrate, Low Chlorophyll (HNLC) conditions in the Southern Ocean, subarctic and equatorial Pacific. Spatial distributions of nitrogen fixation are in general agreement with field data, with total N-fixation of 54 Tg N. Diazotrophs directly account for a small fraction of primary production (0.54%) but indirectly support 10% of primary production and nearly 8% of particulate organic carbon (POC) export. Diatoms disproportionately contribute to export of POC out of surface waters, but CaCO3 from the coccolithophores is the key driver of POC flux to the deep ocean in the model. An iron source from shallow ocean sediments is found critical in preventing iron limitation in shelf regions, most notably in the Arctic Ocean, but has a relatively localized impact. In contrast, global-scale primary production, export production, and nitrogen fixation are all sensitive to variations in atmospheric mineral dust inputs. The residence time for dissolved iron in surface waters is estimated to be a few years to a decade. Most of the iron utilized by phytoplankton is from subsurface sources supplied by mixing, entrainment, and ocean circulation. However, due to the short residence time of iron in the upper ocean, this subsurface iron pool is critically dependent on continual replenishment from atmospheric dust deposition and, to a lesser extent, lateral transport from shelf regions.A global three-dimensional marine ecosystem model with several key phytoplankton functional groups, multiple limiting nutrients, explicit iron cycling, and a mineral ballast/organic matter parameterization is run within a global ocean circulation model. The coupled biogeochemistry/ecosystem/circulation (BEC) model reproduces known basin-scale patterns of primary and export production, biogenic silica production, calcification, chlorophyll, macronutrient and dissolved iron concentrations. The model captures observed high nitrate, low chlorophyll (HNLC) conditions in the Southern Ocean, subarctic and equatorial Pacific. Spatial distributions of nitrogen fixation are in general agreement with field data, with total N-fixation of 55 Tg N. Diazotrophs directly account for a small fraction of primary production (0.5%) but indirectly support 10% of primary production and 8% of sinking particulate organic carbon (POC) export. Diatoms disproportionately contribute to export of POC out of surface waters, but CaCO3 from the coccolithophores is the key driver of POC flux to the deep ocean in the model. An iron source from shallow ocean sediments is found critical in preventing iron limitation in shelf regions, most notably in the Arctic Ocean, but has a relatively localized impact. In contrast, global-scale primary production, export production, and nitrogen fixation are all sensitive to variations in atmospheric mineral dust inputs. The residence time for dissolved iron in the upper ocean is estimated to be a few years to a decade. Most of the iron utilized by phytoplankton is from subsurface sources supplied by mixing, entrainment, and ocean circulation. However, owing to the short residence time of iron in the upper ocean, this subsurface iron pool is critically dependent on continual replenishment from atmospheric dust deposition and, to a lesser extent, lateral transport from shelf regions.

Iron cycling and nutrient-limitation patterns in surface waters of the World Ocean

Abstract A global marine ecosystem mixed-layer model is used to study iron cycling and nutrient-limitation patterns in surface waters of the world ocean. The ecosystem model has a small phytoplankton size class whose growth can be limited by N, P, Fe, and/or light, a diatom class which can also be Si-limited, and a diazotroph phytoplankton class whose growth rates can be limited by P, Fe, and/or light levels. The model also includes a parameterization of calcification by phytoplankton and is described in detail by Moore et al. (Deep-Sea Res. II, 2002). The model reproduces the observed high nitrate, low chlorophyll (HNLC) conditions in the Southern Ocean, subarctic Northeast Pacific, and equatorial Pacific, and realistic global patterns of primary production, biogenic silica production, nitrogen fixation, particulate organic carbon export, calcium carbonate export, and surface chlorophyll concentrations. Phytoplankton cellular Fe/C ratios and surface layer dissolved iron concentrations are also in general agreement with the limited field data. Primary production, community structure, and the sinking carbon flux are quite sensitive to large variations in the atmospheric iron source, particularly in the HNLC regions, supporting the Iron Hypothesis of Martin (Paleoceanography 5 (1990) 1–13). Nitrogen fixation is also strongly influenced by atmospheric iron deposition. Nitrogen limits phytoplankton growth rates over less than half of the world ocean during summer months. Export of biogenic carbon is dominated by the sinking particulate flux, but detrainment and turbulent mixing account for 30% of global carbon export. Our results, in conjunction with other recent studies, suggest the familiar paradigm that nitrate inputs to the surface layer can be equated with particulate carbon export needs to be expanded to include multiple limiting nutrients and modes of export.

An intermediate complexity marine ecosystem model for the global domain

A new marine ecosystem model designed for the global domain is presented, and model output is compared with field data from nine different locations. Field data were collected as part of the international Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS) program, and from historical time series stations. The field data include a wide variety of marine ecosystem types, including nitrogen- and iron-limited systems, and different physical environments from high latitudes to the mid-ocean gyres. Model output is generally in good agreement with field data from these diverse ecosystems. These results imply that the ecosystem model presented here can be reliably applied over the global domain. The model includes multiple potentially limiting nutrients that regulate phytoplankton growth rates. There are three phytoplankton classes, diatoms, diazotrophs, and a generic small phytoplankton class. Growth rates can be limited by available nitrogen, phosphorus, iron, and/or light levels. The diatoms can also be limited by silicon. The diazotrophs are capable of nitrogen fixation of N2 gas and cannot be nitrogen-limited. Calcification by phytoplankton is parameterized as a variable fraction of primary production by the small phytoplankton group. There is one zooplankton class that grazes the three phytoplankton groups and a large detrital pool. The large detrital pool sinks out of the mixed layer, while a smaller detrital pool, representing dissolved organic matter and very small particulates, does not sink. Remineralization of the detrital pools is parameterized with a temperature-dependent function. We explicitly model the dissolved iron cycle in marine surface waters including inputs of iron from subsurface sources and from atmospheric dust deposition.

The Growing Human Footprint on Coastal and Open-Ocean Biogeochemistry

Climate change, rising atmospheric carbon dioxide, excess nutrient inputs, and pollution in its many forms are fundamentally altering the chemistry of the ocean, often on a global scale and, in some cases, at rates greatly exceeding those in the historical and recent geological record. Major observed trends include a shift in the acid-base chemistry of seawater, reduced subsurface oxygen both in near-shore coastal water and in the open ocean, rising coastal nitrogen levels, and widespread increase in mercury and persistent organic pollutants. Most of these perturbations, tied either directly or indirectly to human fossil fuel combustion, fertilizer use, and industrial activity, are projected to grow in coming decades, resulting in increasing negative impacts on ocean biota and marine resources.