S. Van Passel

Determinants of risk behaviour: effects of perceived risks and risk attitude on farmer’s adoption of risk management strategies

The importance of risk perception and risk attitude for understanding individual’s risk behaviour are independently well described in literature, but rarely combined in an integrated approach. In this study, we propose a model assuming the choice to implement certain risk management strategies to be directly driven by both perceptions of risks and risk attitude. Other determinants influence the intention to apply different risk strategies mainly indirectly, mediated by risk perception and risk attitude. This conceptual model is empirically tested, using structural equation modelling, for understanding the intention of farmers to implement different common risk management strategies at their farms. Data are gathered in a survey completed by 500 farmers from the Flanders region in Belgium, investigating attitudes towards farming, perceived past exposure to risk, socio-demographic characteristics, farm size, perceptions of the major sources of farm business risk, risk attitudes and the intention to apply common risk management strategies. Our major findings are: (i) perception of major farm business risks have no significant impact on the intention of applying any of the risk strategies under study, (ii) risk attitude does have a significant impact. Therefore, rather than objective risk faced and the subjective interpretation thereof, it is the general risk attitude that influence intended risk strategies to be implemented. A distinction can be made between farmers willing to take risk, who are more inclined to apply ex-ante risk management strategies and risk averse farmers who are less inclined to implement ex-ante risk management strategies but rather cope with the consequences and diminish their effects ex-post when risks have occurred.

Farmers’ perceived cost of land use restrictions: A simulated purchasing decision using discrete choice experiments

This paper reports on the findings from discrete choice experiments designed to estimate farmers’ perceived costs of land use restrictions, i.e. crop restrictions, additional fertilizing restrictions, and usage restrictions, as opposed to having no such restrictions. To this end, hypothetical land purchasing decisions were simulated based on the information about productivity, lot size, distance to other land, driving time to home, land use restrictions, and price. Farmers from the Campine area (Belgium) were invited to participate in the survey as the agricultural land in this region still faces the effects of historical heavy metal contamination resulting in crop restrictions. For identical pieces of land, we estimate the perceived cost, calculated as a change in the consumer surplus due to having a land use restriction, to be about 46,000 €/ha for the crop restriction, 50,000 €/ha for the usage restriction, and 70,000 €/ha for the fertilizing restrictions. Assuming this cost to represent a perpetuity, then with a discount rate of 5% the yearly fixed costs respectively equal about 2300 €/ha, 2500 €/ha, and 3500 €/ha.

GROUNDWATER REMEDIATION AND THE COST EFFECTIVENESS OF PHYTOREMEDIATION

In 1999, phytoremediation was applied at the site of a Belgian car factory to contain two BTEX plumes. This case study evaluates the cost effectiveness of phytoremediation compared to other remediation options, applying a tailored approach for economic evaluation. Generally, when phytoremediation is addressed as being cost effective, the cost effectiveness is only determined on an average basis. This study however, demonstrates that an incremental analysis may provide a more nuanced conclusion. When the cost effectiveness is calculated on an average basis, in this particular case, the no containment strategy (natural attenuation) has the lowest cost per unit mass removed and hence, should be preferred. However, when the cost effectiveness is determined incrementally, no containment should only be preferred if the value of removing an extra gram of contaminant mass is lower than €320. Otherwise, a permeable reactive barrier should be adopted. A similar analysis is provided for the effect determined on the basis of remediation time. Phytoremediation is preferred compared to ‘no containment’ if reaching the objective one year earlier is worth €7 000.

The option to abandon: stimulating innovative groundwater remediation technologies characterized by technological uncertainty.

Many studies on technology adoption demonstrate that uncertainty leads to a postponement of investments by integrating a wait option in the economic analysis. The aim of this study however is to demonstrate how the investment in new technologies can be stimulated by integrating an option to abandon. Furthermore, this real option analysis not only considers the ex ante decision analysis of the investment in a new technology under uncertainty, but also allows for an ex post evaluation of the investment. Based on a case study regarding the adoption of an innovative groundwater remediation strategy, it is demonstrated that when the option to abandon the innovative technology is taken into account, the decision maker decides to invest in this technology, while at the same time it determines an optimal timing to abandon the technology if its operation proves to be inefficient. To reduce uncertainty about the effectiveness of groundwater remediation technologies, samples are taken. Our analysis shows that when the initial belief in an effective innovative technology is low, it is important that these samples provide correct information in order to justify the adoption of the innovative technology.

Bioremediation: How to deal with removal efficiency uncertainty? An economic application

Bioremediation is a remediation strategy, which has considerable strength but also certain limitations. Complex and uncertain relationships among biomass, contaminants, and nutrients lead to an uncertain level of removal efficiency. The uncertainty inherent to a bioremediation strategy should be addressed in the remediation selection process. In order to evaluate the bioremediation strategy economically, this study takes into account the reversibility of a decision. A decision tree structures the different remediation strategies, thus giving the possible courses of action open to the decision maker. The option value indicates the importance of having the possibility to reverse a previously made decision. Compared with conventional economic evaluation tools, more information to ground the selection made is revealed.

The perception by pastoralists of the factors influencing the appropriate distribution of livestock in the rangelands of north-east Iran

The distribution of livestock grazing is a key principle of range management. This study examines pastoralists’ perceptions of the factors that affect the distribution of livestock in the rangelands of the Neqab region of the Kashmar County in north-east Iran. Data were collected from the pastoralists on their perceptions of the managerial, biological and physical factors that influences the distribution of livestock, using both qualitative and quantitative assessments. Results showed that, the perception of the majority of pastoralists was that the distribution of livestock was ‘average’ or ‘good’ in the study area. It was perceived that the experience of herders and the size of the rangeland were the main factors influencing the distribution of livestock. Regression analyses showed that it was perceived that managerial factors had a more important role than biological and physical factors in the distribution of livestock and the proper use of the rangelands in north-east Iran.