Sahoko Kaji

Choices of Optimal Monetary Policy Instruments Under the Floating and the Basket-Peg Regimes

This paper determines whether adopting the basket-peg rather than the floating regime is optimal for emerging market countries. Under the basket-peg regime, there is a trade-off between practical usefulness and welfare losses associated with capital movements across countries. We develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for small open economies to derive a simple basket weight rule. Although this is suboptimal, we find it practical and easy to implement. With calibration using Singaporean and Thai data for 1997Q3–2006Q2 and comparison among cumulative losses associated with the policy instrument rules, we show that a commitment to the basket weight rule is superior to other instrument rules under the floating regime for small, open emerging market countries like Singapore and Thailand.

Dynamic Transition of Exchange Rate Regime in China

The paper considers the optimal transition path for Chinas exchange rate regime. How can China successfully make the shift from the current dollar peg regime to a more desirable regime, whether a basket peg or a floating regime? To answer this question, we develop a dynamic small open economy general equilibrium model. We construct four transition policies based on a basket peg or a floating regime and compare the welfare gains of these policies relative to maintaining the dollar peg regime. Two main results are derived from the quantitative analysis using Chinese data from 1999Q1 to 2010Q4. First, following a gradual adjustment to a basket peg regime is the most appropriate path for China to take, with minimal welfare losses associated with the shift in the exchange rate regime. Second, a sudden shift to the basket peg is the second best solution, and is superior to a sudden shift to floating because the monetary authority can efficiently determine optimal weights to attach to currencies in the basket to achieve policy goals once they adopt a basket peg regime.

Dynamic Analysis of Exchange Rate Regimes: Policy Implications for Emerging Countries in Asia

This paper discusses desirable exchange rate regimes and how countries can shift from their current regimes to these regimes over the medium term. We demonstrate the superiority of a basket-peg regime with the basket weight rule over a floating regime with the interest rate rule or the money supply rule in small open economies, during periods when volatility of exchange rates is moderate. Countries which currently have fixed exchange rates would be better moving toward either a basket-peg or a floating regime over the medium term. A shift to a basket-peg regime is preferred when exchange rate fluctuations are large.

The Stabilization of an Open Economy with Capital Controls: An Analysis Using Malaysian Data

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effectiveness of capital controls and fixed exchange rates in improving economic welfare. We apply Malaysian data to our theoretical model and derive the following results for the period of our estimation. High exchange rate volatility negatively affects Malaysian net exports and real GDP. By stabilizing the exchange rate and recovering monetary policy autonomy, capital controls and fixed exchange rates can lead to lower values of loss functions. This beneficial effect is stronger, the more open the Malaysian economy.

Instability in Europe and Its Impact on Asia

In the present paper, we discuss three unintended consequences of European Integration; the division between the pro‐ and anti‐integrationists, doubts on the benefits of the free movements and the burden of the welfare state. Since 2017, Europe has regained confidence and optimism has returned due to sustained economic recovery and election victories of prointegration politicians, most notably in France. The European Union is embarking on co‐operation in defense and security, providing a new reason to support integration. Uncertainty over Brexit and immigration remain among the causes for grave concern. But Europe and Japan have taken a joint stance against protectionism, while Asia is yet to decide whether to do so as an integrated entity.

Dynamic Effects of Changes in the Exchange Rate System

We propose a new dynamic transition analysis on the basis of a small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Our proposed analysis differs from existing static and conventional dynamic analyses in that shifts from a fixed exchange rate regime to a basket peg or a floating regime are explicitly explored. We apply quantitative analysis, using data from the Peoples Republic of China and Thailand, and find that both economies would be better off shifting from a dollar peg to a basket peg or a floating regime over the long run. Furthermore, the longer the transition period, the greater the benefits of shifting to a basket peg regime from a dollar peg regime owing to limited volatility in interest rates. Regarding sudden shifts to a desired regime, the welfare gains are larger under a shift to a basket peg if the exchange rate fluctuates significantly.

Adjustments of Capital Account Restrictions and Exchange Rate Regimes in East Asia

This paper discusses adjustments of capital account restrictions and exchange rate regimes in East Asia. Monetary authorities have two options for these adjustments: Gradual adjustments and rapid adjustments. We analyze the costs and benefits for both adjustment options in each area, i.e., capital account restrictions and exchange rate regimes. The paper provides prominent country cases for each adjustment option to emphasize the benefits for policymakers. We then propose four transition policy options for East Asian countries aiming to relax capital account restrictions and increase flexibility in exchange rates from fixed regimes with capital account controls.

Economic Stability and Choice of Exchange Rate Regimes

This paper emphasizes the importance of Europe’s structural problems and governance as the cause of the current euro area crisis. The euro may have led to bubbles, but member economies were not free of trouble before the euro. Many members were losing competitiveness and in need of removing structural rigidities. If anything, the euro was expected to encourage structural reform, by taking away the easy choice of monetary and fiscal expansion. We first discuss the relationship between the single currency and economic stability in Europe. We confirm the asymmetries that remained after the introduction of the euro and then discuss the governance overhaul taking place in Europe today. This overhaul was something that should have been done before introducing the euro, and its advancement may be the silver lining of this crisis. Finally, we touch upon the implications for Asia and Japan, from the point of view of the choice of exchange rate regime as a method to advance necessary reforms.

Dynamic Effect of a Change in the Exchange Rate System: From a Fixed Regime to a Basket-Peg or a Floating Regime

This paper theoretically evaluates the dynamic effects of a shift in an exchange rate system from a fixed regime to a basket peg, or to a floating regime, and obtains transition paths for the shift based on a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of a small open economy. We apply quantitative analysis using data from the Peoples Republic of China and Thailand and find that a small open country would be better off shifting to a basket peg or to a floating regime than maintaining a dollar-peg regime with capital controls over the long run. Furthermore, due to the welfare losses associated with volatility in nominal interest rates, the longer the transition period, the larger the benefits of shifting suddenly to a basket-peg regime from a dollar-peg regime than proceeding gradually. Regarding sudden shifts to desired regimes, the welfare gains are higher under a shift to a basket peg if the exchange rate fluctuates significantly. Finally, shifting to a managed-floating regime is less attractive than moving to a basket peg, as the interventions necessary to maintain the exchange rate for certain periods result in higher losses and the authority lacks monetary policy autonomy.

Comparison of Static and Dynamic Analyses on Exchange Rate Regimes in East Asia

This paper compares three methods of analyzing exchange rate regimes in East Asia: static analysis, conventional dynamic analysis, and dynamic transition analysis. First we provide quantitative results that both estimated parameters for Thailand and time intervals are applied symmetrically across the three approaches. Our comparable simulation results illustrate how these three analyses are mutually related. Comparisons across the three methods demonstrate limitations of the static and conventional dynamic analyses where exchange rate regimes remain unchanged over the analysis horizon. Moreover, we emphasize three advantages of the dynamic transition analysis over the static and conventional dynamic analyses in that shifts from the current regime to alternative regimes are contrasted with a benchmark case of maintaining the current regime over the analysis horizon.