Salil Mahajan

Impact of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) on Arctic Surface Air Temperature and Sea Ice Variability

AbstractThe simulated impact of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on the low-frequency variability of the Arctic surface air temperature (SAT) and sea ice extent is studied with a 1000-year-long segment of a control simulation of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model version 2.1. The simulated AMOC variations in the control simulation are found to be significantly anticorrelated with the Arctic sea ice extent anomalies and significantly correlated with the Arctic SAT anomalies on decadal time scales in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic. The maximum anticorrelation with the Arctic sea ice extent and the maximum correlation with the Arctic SAT occur when the AMOC index leads by one year. An intensification of the AMOC is associated with a sea ice decline in the Labrador, Greenland, and Barents Seas in the control simulation, with the largest change occurring in winter. The recent declining trend in the satellite-observed sea ice extent also shows a similar pattern in t...

Black carbon aerosol‐induced Northern Hemisphere tropical expansion

Global climate models (GCMs) underestimate the observed trend in tropical expansion. Recent studies partly attribute it to black carbon (BC) aerosols, which are poorly represented in GCMs. We conduct a suite of idealized experiments with the Community Atmosphere Model version 4 coupled to a slab ocean model forced with increasing BC concentrations covering a large swath of the estimated range of current BC radiative forcing while maintaining their spatial distribution. The Northern Hemisphere (NH) tropics expand poleward nearly linearly as BC radiative forcing increases (0.7° W−1 m2), indicating that a realistic representation of BC could reduce GCM biases. We find support for the mechanism where BC-induced midlatitude tropospheric heating shifts the maximum meridional tropospheric temperature gradient poleward resulting in tropical expansion. We also find that the NH poleward tropical edge is nearly linearly correlated with the location of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which shifts northward in response to increasing BC.

Linearity of Climate Response to Increases in Black Carbon Aerosols

AbstractThe impacts of absorbing aerosols on global climate are not completely understood. This paper presents the results of idealized experiments conducted with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 4 (CAM4), coupled to a slab ocean model (CAM4–SOM) to simulate the climate response to increases in tropospheric black carbon aerosols (BC) by direct and semidirect effects. CAM4-SOM was forced with 0, 1×, 2×, 5×, and 10× an estimate of the present day concentration of BC while maintaining the estimated present day global spatial and vertical distribution. The top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative forcing of BC in these experiments is positive (warming) and increases linearly as the BC burden increases. The total semidirect effect for the 1 × BC experiment is positive but becomes increasingly negative for higher BC concentrations. The global-average surface temperature response is found to be a linear function of the TOA radiative forcing. The climate sensitivity to BC from these experiments is estimated to be...

The Role of the Wind–Evaporation–Sea Surface Temperature (WES) Feedback as a Thermodynamic Pathway for the Equatorward Propagation of High-Latitude Sea Ice–Induced Cold Anomalies

Abstract The role of the wind–evaporation–sea surface temperature (WES) feedback in the propagation of the high-latitude cooling signal to the tropical oceans using the NCAR atmospheric Community Climate Model (CCM3) coupled thermodynamically to a slab-ocean model (SOM) is studied. Abruptly imposed additional Northern Hemispheric sea ice cover equivalent to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 18 kyr BP) in the model causes a Northern Hemisphere–wide cooling, as well as the generation and amplification of an anomalous cross-equatorial meridional SST dipole associated with a southward migration of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) stabilizing within a period of 5 yr. In experiments where the WES feedback is switched off explicitly by modifying the sensible and latent heat flux bulk aerodynamic formulations over the oceans in CCM3, imposed Northern Hemispheric sea ice also results in widespread northern cooling at the same rate as the unmodified run, suggesting that the WES feedback is not essential in th...

Interannual Tropospheric Aerosol Variability in the Late Twentieth Century and Its Impact on Tropical Atlantic and West African Climate by Direct and Semidirect Effects

AbstractA new high-resolution global tropospheric aerosol dataset with monthly resolution is generated using version 4 of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4) coupled to a bulk aerosol model and forced with recent estimates of surface emissions for the period 1961–2000 to identify tropospheric aerosol-induced interannual climate variations. The surface emissions dataset is constructed from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) decadal-resolution surface emissions dataset to include reanalysis of tropospheric chemical composition [40-yr Reanalysis of Tropospheric Chemical Composition (RETRO)] wildfire monthly emissions data. A four-member ensemble run is conducted using the spectral configuration of CAM4, forced with the new tropospheric aerosol dataset and prescribed with observed sea surface temperature, sea ice, and greenhouse gases. CAM4 only simulates the direct and semidirect effects of aerosols on the climate. The simulations reveal that variations in tropospheric aerosol lev...

Free and Forced Variability of the Tropical Atlantic Ocean: Role of the Wind–Evaporation–Sea Surface Temperature Feedback

Abstract The role of the wind–evaporation–sea surface temperature (WES) feedback in the low-frequency natural variability of the tropical Atlantic is studied using an atmospheric global climate model—the NCAR Community Climate Model, version 3 (CCM3)—thermodynamically coupled to a slab ocean model (SOM). The coupled model is modified to suppress the WES feedback and is compared to a control run. Singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis over the tropical Atlantic reveals that the coupled meridional mode of the Atlantic Ocean is amplified in the presence of the WES feedback. In its absence, the meridional mode still exists, but with a weaker amplitude. A feedback mechanism that involves the near-surface specific humidity is proposed to sustain the weaker Atlantic meridional mode in the absence of the WES feedback. Similar analysis of coupled model integrations when forced with an artificial El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like SST cycle in the Pacific reveals that in the presence of the WES feedback,...

A spectral transform dynamical core option within the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4)

An ensemble of simulations covering the present day observational period using forced sea surface temperatures and prescribed sea-ice extent is configured with an 85 truncation resolution spectral transform dynamical core (T85) within the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), version 4 and is evaluated relative to observed and model derived data sets and the one degree finite volume (FV) dynamical core. The spectral option provides a well-known base within the climate model community to assess climate behavior and statistics, and its relative computational efficiency for smaller computing platforms allows it to be extended to perform high-resolution climate length simulations. Overall, the quality of the T85 ensemble is similar to FV. Analyzing specific features of the T85 simulations show notable improvements to the representation of wintertime Arctic sea level pressure and summer precipitation over the Western Indian subcontinent. The mean and spatial patterns of the land surface temperature trends over the AMIP period are generally well simulated with the T85 ensemble relative to observations, however the model is not able to capture the extent nor magnitude of changes in temperature extremes over the boreal summer, where the changes are most dramatic. Biases in the wintertime Arctic surface temperature and annual mean surface stress fields persist with T85 as with the CAM3 version of T85, as compared to FV. An experiment to identify the source of differences between dycores has revealed that the longwave cloud forcing is sensitive to the choice of dycore, which has implications for tuning strategies of the physics parameter settings.

Statistical significance of trends in monthly heavy precipitation over the US

Trends in monthly heavy precipitation, defined by a return period of one year, are assessed for statistical significance in observations and Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations over the contiguous United States using Monte Carlo non-parametric and parametric bootstrapping techniques. The results from the two Monte Carlo approaches are found to be similar to each other, and also to the traditional non-parametric Kendall’s τ test, implying the robustness of the approach. Two different observational data-sets are employed to test for trends in monthly heavy precipitation and are found to exhibit consistent results. Both data-sets demonstrate upward trends, one of which is found to be statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Upward trends similar to observations are observed in some climate model simulations of the twentieth century, but their statistical significance is marginal. For projections of the twenty-first century, a statistically significant upwards trend is observed in most of the climate models analyzed. The change in the simulated precipitation variance appears to be more important in the twenty-first century projections than changes in the mean precipitation. Stochastic fluctuations of the climate-system are found to be dominate monthly heavy precipitation as some GCM simulations show a downwards trend even in the twenty-first century projections when the greenhouse gas forcings are strong.

Confronting the “Indian summer monsoon response to black carbon aerosol” with the uncertainty in its radiative forcing and beyond

While black carbon aerosols (BC) are believed to modulate the Indian monsoons, the radiative forcing estimate of BC suffers from large uncertainties globally. We analyze a suite of idealized experiments forced with a range of BC concentrations that span a large swath of the latest estimates of its global radiative forcing. Within those bounds of uncertainty, summer precipitation over the Indian region increases nearly linearly with the increase in BC burden. The linearity holds even as the BC concentration is increased to levels resembling those hypothesized in nuclear winter scenarios, despite large surface cooling over India and adjoining regions. The enhanced monsoonal circulation is associated with a linear increase in the large-scale meridional tropospheric temperature gradient. The precipitable water over the region also increases linearly with an increase in BC burden, due to increased moisture transport from the Arabian sea to the land areas. The wide range of Indian monsoon response elicited in these experiments emphasizes the need to reduce the uncertainty in BC estimates to accurately quantify their role in modulating the Indian monsoons. The increase in monsoonal circulation in response to large BC concentrations contrasts earlier findings that the Indian summer monsoon may break down following a nuclear war.

Exploring an Ensemble-Based Approach to Atmospheric Climate Modeling and Testing at Scale

Abstract A strict throughput requirement has placed a cap on the degree to which we can depend on the execution of single, long, fine spatial grid simulations to explore global atmospheric climate behavior. Alternatively, running an ensemble of short simulations is computationally more efficient. We test the null hypothesis that the climate statistics of a full-complexity atmospheric model derived from an ensemble of independent short simulation is equivalent to that from an equilibrated long simulation. The climate of short simulation ensembles is statistically distinguishable from that of a long simulation in terms of the distribution of global annual means, largely due to the presence of low-frequency atmospheric intrinsic variability in the long simulation. We also find that model climate statistics of the simulation ensemble are sensitive to the choice of compiler optimizations. While some answer-changing optimization choices do not effect the climate state in terms of mean, variability and extremes, aggressive optimizations can result in significantly different climate states.