Samer A.M. Nashef

European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation (EuroSCORE)

OBJECTIVE To construct a scoring system for the prediction of early mortality in cardiac surgical patients in Europe on the basis of objective risk factors. METHODS The EuroSCORE database was divided into developmental and validation subsets. In the former, risk factors deemed to be objective, credible, obtainable and difficult to falsify were weighted on the basis of regression analysis. An additive score of predicted mortality was constructed. Its calibration and discrimination characteristics were assessed in the validation dataset. Thresholds were defined to distinguish low, moderate and high risk groups. RESULTS The developmental dataset had 13,302 patients, calibration by Hosmer Lemeshow Chi square was (8) = 8.26 (P < 0.40) and discrimination by area under ROC curve was 0.79. The validation dataset had 1479 patients, calibration Chi square (10) = 7.5, P < 0.68 and the area under the ROC curve was 0.76. The scoring system identified three groups of risk factors with their weights (additive % predicted mortality) in brackets. Patient-related factors were age over 60 (one per 5 years or part thereof), female (1), chronic pulmonary disease (1), extracardiac arteriopathy (2), neurological dysfunction (2), previous cardiac surgery (3), serum creatinine >200 micromol/l (2), active endocarditis (3) and critical preoperative state (3). Cardiac factors were unstable angina on intravenous nitrates (2), reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (30-50%: 1, <30%: 3), recent (<90 days) myocardial infarction (2) and pulmonary systolic pressure >60 mmHg (2). Operation-related factors were emergency (2), other than isolated coronary surgery (2), thoracic aorta surgery (3) and surgery for postinfarct septal rupture (4). The scoring system was then applied to three risk groups. The low risk group (EuroSCORE 1-2) had 4529 patients with 36 deaths (0.8%), 95% confidence limits for observed mortality (0.56-1.10) and for expected mortality (1.27-1.29). The medium risk group (EuroSCORE 3-5) had 5977 patients with 182 deaths (3%), observed mortality (2.62-3.51), predicted (2.90-2.94). The high risk group (EuroSCORE 6 plus) had 4293 patients with 480 deaths (11.2%) observed mortality (10.25-12.16), predicted (10.93-11.54). Overall, there were 698 deaths in 14,799 patients (4.7%), observed mortality (4.37-5.06), predicted (4.72-4.95). CONCLUSION EuroSCORE is a simple, objective and up-to-date system for assessing heart surgery, soundly based on one of the largest, most complete and accurate databases in European cardiac surgical history. We recommend its widespread use.

Risk factors and outcome in European cardiac surgery: analysis of the EuroSCORE multinational database of 19030 patients

OBJECTIVE To assess risk factors for mortality in cardiac surgical adult patients as part of a study to develop a European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE). METHODS From September to November 1995, information on risk factors and mortality was collected for 19030 consecutive adult patients undergoing cardiac surgery under cardiopulmonary bypass in 128 surgical centres in eight European states. Data were collected for 68 preoperative and 29 operative risk factors proven or believed to influence hospital mortality. The relationship between risk factors and outcome was assessed by univariate and logistic regression analysis. RESULTS Mean age (+/- standard deviation) was 62.5+/-10.7 (range 17-94 years) and 28% were female. Mean body mass index was 26.3+/-3.9. The incidence of common risk factors was as follows: hypertension 43.6%, diabetes 16.7%, extracardiac arteriopathy 2.9%, chronic renal failure 3.5%, chronic pulmonary disease 3.9%, previous cardiac surgery 7.3% and impaired left ventricular function 31.4%. Isolated coronary surgery accounted for 63.6% of all procedures, and 29.8% of patients had valve operations. Overall hospital mortality was 4.8%. Coronary surgery mortality was 3.4% In the absence of any identifiable risk factors, mortality was 0.4% for coronary surgery, 1% for mitral valve surgery, 1.1% for aortic valve surgery and 0% for atrial septal defect repair. The following risk factors were associated with increased mortality: age (P = 0.001), female gender (P = 0.001), serum creatinine (P = 0.001), extracardiac arteriopathy (P = 0.001), chronic airway disease (P = 0.006), severe neurological dysfunction (P = 0.001), previous cardiac surgery (P = 0.001), recent myocardial infarction (P = 0.001), left ventricular ejection fraction (P = 0.001), chronic congestive cardiac failure (P = 0.001), pulmonary hypertension (P = 0.001), active endocarditis (P = 0.001), unstable angina (P = 0.001), procedure urgency (P = 0.001), critical preoperative condition (P = 0.001) ventricular septal rupture (P = 0.002), noncoronary surgery (P = 0.001), thoracic aortic surgery (P = 0.001). CONCLUSION A number of risk factors contribute to cardiac surgical mortality in Europe. This information can be used to develop a risk stratification system for the prediction of hospital mortality and the assessment of quality of care.

The logistic EuroSCORE

Dear Sir, The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) identifies a number of risk factors which help to predict mortality from cardiac surgery.1 The predicted mortality (in percent) is calculated by adding the weights assigned to each factor. Since its initial publication in 1999, EuroSCORE has been widely used in Europe and elsewhere and has been the subject of several studies. Most of these studies compared the predictive ability of the EuroSCORE to previously described systems2,3 or to locally derivedmodels.4 One original work used it as a tool in order to assess the intra-institutional benefit in switching from conventional surgery under cardiopulmonary bypass to the off-pump approach in coronary surgery.5 In general, EuroSCORE was found to be …

EuroSCORE II dagger

OBJECTIVES To update the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) risk model. METHODS A dedicated website collected prospective risk and outcome data on 22,381 consecutive patients undergoing major cardiac surgery in 154 hospitals in 43 countries over a 12-week period (May-July 2010). Completeness and accuracy were validated during data collection using mandatory field entry, error and range checks and after data collection using summary feedback confirmation by responsible officers and multiple logic checks. Information was obtained on existing EuroSCORE risk factors and additional factors proven to influence risk from research conducted since the original model. The primary outcome was mortality at the base hospital. Secondary outcomes were mortality at 30 and 90 days. The data set was divided into a developmental subset for logistic regression modelling and a validation subset for model testing. A logistic risk model (EuroSCORE II) was then constructed and tested. RESULTS Compared with the original 1995 EuroSCORE database (in brackets), the mean age was up at 64.7 (62.5) with 31% females (28%). More patients had New York Heart Association class IV, extracardiac arteriopathy, renal and pulmonary dysfunction. Overall mortality was 3.9% (4.6%). When applied to the current data, the old risk models overpredicted mortality (actual: 3.9%; additive predicted: 5.8%; logistic predicted: 7.57%). EuroSCORE II was well calibrated on testing in the validation data subset of 5553 patients (actual mortality: 4.18%; predicted: 3.95%). Very good discrimination was maintained with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.8095. CONCLUSIONS Cardiac surgical mortality has significantly reduced in the last 15 years despite older and sicker patients. EuroSCORE II is better calibrated than the original model yet preserves powerful discrimination. It is proposed for the future assessment of cardiac surgical risk.

Validation of European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) in North American cardiac surgery

OBJECTIVE To assess the performance of the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) when applied in a North American cardiac surgical population. METHODS The simple additive EuroSCORE model was applied to predict operative mortality (in-hospital or 30-day) in 401684 patients undergoing coronary or valve surgery in 1998 and 1999 as well as in 188913 patients undergoing surgery in 1995 in the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) database. RESULTS The proportion of isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) was greater in STS patients (84%) than in Europe (65%). STS patients were also older (mean age 65.3 versus 62.5), and had more diabetes (30 versus 17%) and prior cardiac surgery (11 versus 7%). Other comorbidity was also significantly more prevalent in STS patients. EuroSCORE predicted overall mortality was virtually identical to the observed mortality (1998/1999: predicted 3.994%, observed 3.992%; 1995: observed and predicted 4.156%). Predicted mortality also closely matched observed mortality across the risk groups. Discrimination was good to very good for the population overall and for isolated CABG in both time periods, with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve between 0.75 and 0.78. CONCLUSION Despite substantial demographic differences between Europe and North America, EuroSCORE performs very well in the STS database, and can be recommended as a simple, additive risk stratification system on both sides of the Atlantic.

Guideline on antiplatelet and anticoagulation management in cardiac surgery

This document presents a professional view of evidence-based recommendations around the issues of antiplatelet and anticoagulation management in cardiac surgery. It was prepared by the Audit and Guidelines Committee of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery (EACTS). We review the following topics: evidence for aspirin, clopidogrel and warfarin cessation prior to cardiac surgery; perioperative interventions to reduce bleeding including the use of aprotinin and tranexamic acid; the use of thromboelastography to guide blood product usage; protamine reversal of heparin; the use of factor VIIa to control severe bleeding; anticoagulation after mechanical, tissue valve replacement and mitral valve repair; the use of antiplatelets and clopidogrel after cardiac surgery to improve graft patency and reduce thromboembolic complications and thromboprophylaxis in the postoperative period. This guideline is subject to continuous informal review, and when new evidence becomes available. The formal review date will be at 5 years from publication (September 2013).

Expanding wire stents in bengin tracheobronchial disease: Indications and complications

Prosthetic tracheobronchial stents provide palliative treatment for narrowed airways where surgical resection is inadvisable. Over a 1-year period, 28 Gianturco expanding wire stents were used in 15 patients for nonneoplastic indications: pure fibrous airway stenosis (6), fibroinflammatory stenosis (4), and tracheobronchial malacia (5). Insertion was technically straightforward. A satisfactory airway lumen with immediate improvement in ventilatory function was obtained in all patients. After insertion all patients had an irritation-type cough that either subsided spontaneously (10 patients) or was successfully suppressed with inhaled corticosteroid therapy (5 patients). The most common complication (12 patients) was granuloma formation leading to stent removal in 3 patients with fibroinflammatory stenosis. Other complications were dysphagia (1), suction catheter entrapment (1), and fatal massive hemoptysis (1). At a mean follow-up of 13 months (range, 3 to 19 months) all remaining stents are functioning well with no displacement or infection. Overall results were satisfactory in pure fibrous stenoses and tracheobronchial malacia but poor in the presence of inflammation. Tracheobronchial wire stents can be successfully used in selected patients.

Does EuroSCORE work in individual European countries

OBJECTIVE Because of national epidemiological differences in adult heart surgery in Europe, the effectiveness and desirability of a pan-European score for the assessment of quality of surgical care remains controversial. We assessed the predictive value of EuroSCORE in national subsets of the EuroSCORE database. METHODS The EuroSCORE development data set was divided into national subsets of which those with 500 or more patients were selected for analysis. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test was applied to assess the calibration of the EuroSCORE model on individual national samples and the areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were measured to analyse the EuroSCORE discriminative power on individual death prediction. RESULTS There were 18676 patients in the six largest national samples: Germany, United Kingdom, Spain, Finland, France and Italy (mean: 3113 patients; range: Finland 1266 to France 4507). Major differences were observed in national distribution of procedures: coronary artery bypass grafting accounted for 77.7% of procedures in Finland but only 46.2% in Spain. The EuroSCORE model goodness-of-fit was satisfactory in all countries (P-value overall: 0.4; UK: 0.34; Finland: 0.87; no values less than 0.05). Areas under ROC curves were 0.81 in Germany, 0.79 in the UK, 0.74 in Spain, 0.87 in Finland, 0.82 in France and 0.82 in Italy. CONCLUSION Despite epidemiological differences between European countries, the discriminative power of EuroSCORE was good in Spain and excellent in all other countries. The system, developed from a merged European database, can therefore be used to assess improvement in quality of care achieved by surgeons and institutions as well as for international European comparison in adult heart surgery.

Airway complications after lung transplantation: treatment and long-term outcome

BACKGROUND Airway complications are a significant cause of morbidity after lung transplantation. Effective treatment reduces the impact of these complications. METHODS Data from 123 lung (99 single, 24 bilateral) transplants were reviewed. Potential risk factors for airway complications were analyzed. Stenoses were treated with expanding metal (Gianturco) stents. RESULTS Mean follow-up was 749 days. Thirty-five complications developed in 28 recipients (complication rate: 23.8%/anastomosis). Mean time to diagnosis was 47 days. Only Aspergillus infection and airway necrosis were significantly associated with development of complications (p < 0.00001 and p < 0.03, respectively). Stenosis was diagnosed an average of 42 days posttransplant. Average decline in forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) was 39%. Eighteen patients (13 single and 5 bilateral) required stent insertion. Mean increase in FEV1 poststenting was 87%. Two stent patients died from infectious complications. Six patients required further intervention. Long-term survival and FEV1 did not differ from nonstented patients. CONCLUSIONS Aspergillus and airway necrosis are associated with the development of airway complications. Expanding metal stents are an effective long-term treatment.

Coronary surgery in Europe: comparison of the national subsets of the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation database

OBJECTIVE To compare the national samples of patients who underwent isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) during the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) trial in order to evaluate national differences in epidemiology, patient risk profile and surgical methods. METHODS From September to November 1995, 11731 patients had CABG in the six largest contributing nations to the EuroSCORE project: Germany, UK, Spain, Finland, France and Italy. The Chi-square and Kruskal-Wallis tests were applied to obtain an international comparison of patient general status, including pre-operative risk factors, cardiac status, critical pre-operative states, rare conditions, urgency of surgery, angina status, coronary lesions, procedures and EuroSCORE risk assessment. RESULTS Large national samples (from 984 patients in Finland to 3138 in Germany) identified significant differences in epidemiology, risk profile and surgical practice. Regarding epidemiology, CABG accounted for 62.8% of adult cardiac surgery, with a range of 46.2 in Spain to 77.7% in Finland (P<0.001). The mean age was 62.9 years (61.4 in Britain to 64.4 in France, P<0.001). The mean body mass index was 26.8 (26 in France to 27.5 in Finland, P<0.001). With regard to risk profile, diabetes was present in 20.3% of patients (11.8% in Britain to 27.7% in Spain, P<0.001). Chronic renal failure was present in 8.3% (6.8% in Germany to 10.6% in Spain, P<0.001). Chronic airway disease affected 3.8% (1.9% in Italy to 5. 1% in Germany, P<0.001). The mean ejection fraction was 0.56 (0.48 in Britain to 0.58 in Finland, P<0.001). The mean predicted mortality (according to EuroSCORE) was 3.3% (2.8% in Finland to 3.6% in France, P<0.001). The prevalence of chronic congestive heart failure, unstable angina and recent myocardial infarction also showed statistically significant differences. No differences were found for some critical preoperative states (such as immediate preoperative cardiac massage and pre-operative intubation), or for surgery for catheter laboratory complication. Regarding surgical practice, major differences were noted in preoperative intra-aortic balloon use (mean 1%, Finland 0%, Spain 2.3%, P<0.001), the number of mammary artery conduits used (mean 0.9, Spain 0.7, France 1.1, P=0.0001) and the number of distal anastomoses (mean 3, France 2.7, Finland 3.8, P=0.001). CONCLUSION There are important epidemiological differences in the national cohorts of CABG patients in the EuroSCORE database. Any international comparison of European surgical results must therefore take into account the risk profile of patients by using a compatible risk stratification system.