Sander J. Zwart

Evaluation and comparison of satellite-based rainfall products in Burkina Faso, West Africa

ABSTRACT The performance of seven operational high-resolution satellite-based rainfall products – Africa Rainfall Estimate Climatology (ARC 2.0), Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS), Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN), African Rainfall Estimation (RFE 2.0), Tropical Applications of Meteorology using SATellite (TAMSAT), African Rainfall Climatology and Time-series (TARCAT), and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) daily and monthly estimates – was investigated for Burkina Faso. These were compared to ground data for 2001–2014 on a point-to-pixel basis at daily to annual time steps. Continuous statistics was used to assess their performance in estimating and reproducing rainfall amounts, and categorical statistics to evaluate rain detection capabilities. The north–south gradient of rainfall was captured by all products, which generally detected heavy rainfall events, but showed low correlation for rainfall amounts. At daily scale they performed poorly. As the time step increased, the performance improved. All (except TARCAT) provided excellent scores for Bias and Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficients, and overestimated rainfall amounts at the annual scale. RFE performed the best, whereas TARCAT was the weakest. Choice of product depends on the specific application: ARC, RFE, and TARCAT for drought monitoring, and PERSIANN, CHIRPS, and TRMM daily for flood monitoring in Burkina Faso.

Towards a better understanding of biophysical determinants of yield gaps and the potential for expansion of the rice area in Africa

188 (eds M.C.S. Wopereis et al.) is determined by climate (solar radiation and temperature), varietal characteristics and crop establishment methods including sowing date and density. Under rainfed conditions, potential yield is also affected by water availability. Validated crop-simulation models are rarely available in Africa and, if they are, input values to run them, such as long-term weather data, are usually lacking. A proxy for potential yield can be the maximum yield obtained with good agricultural practices in an experimental field or in a high-yielding farmer’s field. The ‘yield gap’ is defined as the difference between potential yield and average on-farm yield obtained by farmers (Becker et al., 2003). Several ‘yield gaps’ can be defined (Fig. 15.1). Because of diminishing returns on investment, yields in farmers’ fields do not in general exceed 80% of the potential yield estimated by validated simulation models. A good understanding of potential yield and yield gaps enables us to identify opportunities for yield improvement in farmers’ fields. Introduction

Spatial modelling of rice yield losses in Tanzania due to bacterial leaf blight and leaf blast in a changing climate

Rice is the most rapidly growing staple food in Africa and although rice production is steadily increasing, the consumption is still out-pacing the production. In Tanzania, two important diseases in rice production are leaf blast caused by Magnaporthe oryzae and bacterial leaf blight caused by Xanthomonas oryzae pv. oryzae. The objective of this study was to quantify rice yield losses due to these two important diseases under a changing climate. We found that bacterial leaf blight is predicted to increase causing greater losses than leaf blast in the future, with losses due to leaf blast declining. The results of this study indicate that the effects of climate change on plant disease can not only be expected to be uneven across diseases but also across geographies, as in some geographic areas losses increase but decrease in others for the same disease.

RiceAtlas, a spatial database of global rice calendars and production

Knowing where, when, and how much rice is planted and harvested is crucial information for understanding the effects of policy, trade, and global and technological change on food security. We developed RiceAtlas, a spatial database on the seasonal distribution of the world’s rice production. It consists of data on rice planting and harvesting dates by growing season and estimates of monthly production for all rice-producing countries. Sources used for planting and harvesting dates include global and regional databases, national publications, online reports, and expert knowledge. Monthly production data were estimated based on annual or seasonal production statistics, and planting and harvesting dates. RiceAtlas has 2,725 spatial units. Compared with available global crop calendars, RiceAtlas is nearly ten times more spatially detailed and has nearly seven times more spatial units, with at least two seasons of calendar data, making RiceAtlas the most comprehensive and detailed spatial database on rice calendar and production.

Impacts of climate change on rice production in Africa and causes of simulated yield changes

Abstract This study is the first of its kind to quantify possible effects of climate change on rice production in Africa. We simulated impacts on rice in irrigated systems (dry season and wet season) and rainfed systems (upland and lowland). We simulated the use of rice varieties with a higher temperature sum as adaptation option. We simulated rice yields for 4 RCP climate change scenarios and identified causes of yield declines. Without adaptation, shortening of the growing period due to higher temperatures had a negative impact on yields (−24% in RCP 8.5 in 2070 compared with the baseline year 2000). With varieties that have a high temperature sum, the length of the growing period would remain the same as under the baseline conditions. With this adaptation option rainfed rice yields would increase slightly (+8%) but they remain subject to water availability constraints. Irrigated rice yields in East Africa would increase (+25%) due to more favourable temperatures and due to CO2 fertilization. Wet season irrigated rice yields in West Africa were projected to change by −21% or +7% (without/with adaptation). Without adaptation irrigated rice yields in West Africa in the dry season would decrease by −45% with adaptation they would decrease significantly less (−15%). The main cause of this decline was reduced photosynthesis at extremely high temperatures. Simulated heat sterility hardly increased and was not found a major cause for yield decline. The implications for these findings are as follows. For East Africa to benefit from climate change, improved water and nutrient management will be needed to benefit fully from the more favourable temperatures and increased CO2 concentrations. For West Africa, more research is needed on photosynthesis processes at extreme temperatures and on adaptation options such as shifting sowing dates.

Diversity of inland valleys and opportunities for agricultural development in Sierra Leone

Inland valleys are becoming increasingly important agricultural production areas for rural households in sub-Saharan Africa due to their relative high and secure water availability and soil fertility. In addition, inland valleys are important as water buffer and biodiversity hot spots and they provide local communities with forest, forage, and fishing resources. As different inland-valley ecosystem functions may conflict with agricultural objectives, indiscriminate development should be avoided. This study aims to analyze the diversity of inland valleys in Sierra Leone and to develop guidelines for more precise interventions. Land use, biophysical and socio-economic data were analyzed on 257 inland valleys using spatial and multivariate techniques. Five cluster groups of inland valleys were identified: (i) semi-permanently flooded with high soil organic carbon (4.2%) and moderate available phosphorus (10.2 ppm), mostly under natural vegetation; (ii) semi-permanently flooded with low soil organic carbon (1.5%) and very low available phosphorus (3.1 ppm), abandoned by farmers; (iii) seasonally flooded with moderate soil organic carbon (3.1%) and low available phosphorus (8.3 ppm), used for rainfed rice and off-season vegetables produced without fertilizer application for household consumption and market; (iv) well drained with moderate soil organic carbon (3.8%) and moderate available phosphorus (10.0 ppm), used for rainfed rice and off-season vegetables produced with fertilizer application for household consumption and market; and (v) well drained with moderate soil organic carbon (3.6%) and moderate available phosphorus (11 ppm), used for household consumption without fertilizer application. Soil organic carbon, available phosphorus, hydrological regime, physical accessibility and market opportunity were the major factors affecting agricultural intensification of inland valleys. Opening up the areas in which inland valleys occur through improved roads and markets, and better water control through drainage infrastructures along with an integrated nutrient management would promote the sustainable agricultural use of inland valleys.

Quantifying trade-offs between future yield levels, food availability and forest and woodland conservation in Benin

Meeting the dual objectives of food security and ecosystem protection is a major challenge in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). To this end agricultural intensification is considered desirable, yet, there remain uncertainties regarding the impact of climate change on opportunities for agricultural intensification and the adequacy of intensification options given the rapid population growth. We quantify trade-offs between levels of yield gap closure, food availability and forest and woodland conservation under different scenarios. Each scenario is made up of a combination of variants of four parameters i.e. (1) climate change based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs); (2) population growth based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs); (3) cropland expansion with varying degrees of deforestation; and (4) different degrees of yield gap closure. We carry out these analyses for three major food crops, i.e. maize, cassava and yam, in Benin. Our analyses show that in most of the scenarios, the required levels of yield gap closures required to maintain the current levels of food availability can be achieved by 2050 by maintaining the average rate of yield increases recorded over the past two and half decades in addition to the current cropping intensity. However, yields will have to increase at a faster rate than has been recorded over the past two and half decades in order to achieve the required levels of yield gap closures by 2100. Our analyses also show that without the stated levels of yield gap closure, the areas under maize, cassava and yam cultivation will have to increase by 95%, 102% and 250% respectively in order to maintain the current levels of per capita food availability. Our study shows that food security outcomes and forest and woodland conservation goals in Benin and likely the larger SSA region are inextricably linked together and require holistic management strategies that considers trade-offs and co-benefits.

Analysing spatial–temporal changes in rice cultivation practices in the Senegal River Valley using MODIS time-series and the PhenoRice algorithm

Abstract In this study we used the PhenoRice algorithm to track recent variations of rice cultivation practices along the Senegal River Valley. Time series of MODIS imagery with 250 m spatial resolution and a nominal 8-days frequency were used as input for the algorithm to map the spatial and temporal variations of rice cultivated area and of several important phenological metrics (e.g., crop establishment and harvesting dates, length of season) for the 2003–2016 period in both the dry and the wet rice cultivation seasons. Comparison between PhenoRice results and ancillary and field data available for the Senegal part of the study area showed that the algorithm is able to track the interannual variations of rice cultivated area, despite the total detected rice area being consistently underestimated. PhenoRice estimates of crop establishment and harvesting dates resulted accurate when compared with field observations available for two sub-regions for a period of 10 years, and thus allow assessing interannual variability and tracking changes in agronomic practices. An analysis of interannual trends of rice growing practices based on PhenoRice results highlighted a clear shift of rice cultivation from the wet to the dry season starting approximately from 2008. The shift was found to be particularly evident in the delta part of the SRV. Additionally, a statistically significant trend was revealed starting 2006 towards a longer dry season (r2 = 0.81; Slope = 1.24 days y−1) and a shorter wet season (r2 = 0.65; Slope = 0.53 days y−1). These findings are in agreement with expert knowledge of changes ongoing in the area. In particular the shorter wet season is attributed to shortage of labor and equipment leading to a delay in completion of harvesting operations in the dry season, which led to the adoption of short-duration rice varieties by farmers in the wet season to avoid risk of yield losses due to climatic constraints. Aforementioned results highlight the usefulness of the PhenoRice algorithm for providing insights about recent variations in rice cultivation practices over large areas in developing countries, where high-quality up to date information about changes in agricultural practices are often lacking.

Impacts of climate change on cropping patterns in a tropical, sub-humid watershed.

In recent decades, there have been substantial increases in crop production in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) as a result of higher yields, increased cropping intensity, expansion of irrigated cropping systems, and rainfed cropland expansion. Yet, to date much of the research focus of the impact of climate change on crop production in the coming decades has been on crop yield responses. In this study, we analyse the impact of climate change on the potential for increasing rainfed cropping intensity through sequential cropping and irrigation expansion in central Benin. Our approach combines hydrological modelling and scenario analysis involving two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), two water-use scenarios for the watershed based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and environmental water requirements leading to sustained streamflow. Our analyses show that in Benin, warmer temperatures will severely limit crop production increases achieved through the expansion of sequential cropping. Depending on the climate change scenario, between 50% and 95% of cultivated areas that can currently support sequential cropping or will need to revert to single cropping. The results also show that the irrigation potential of the watershed will be at least halved by mid-century in all scenario combinations. Given the urgent need to increase crop production to meet the demands of a growing population in SSA, our study outlines challenges and the need for planned development that need to be overcome to improve food security in the coming decades.

Ecological sustainability and environmental risks of agricultural intensification in inland valleys in Benin

To meet food demand after the failure of irrigation system developments, agricultural intensification is occurring in inland valley agro-ecosystems in sub-Saharan Africa. Agricultural enhancement in inland valleys, which undermines environmental sustainability, was assessed using ‘Driving Force–Pressure–State–Impact–Response’ approach in four agro-ecological zones of Benin. The survey revealed that inland valleys are largely devoid of ligneous species. Crop residues are mainly transferred from inland valley fields to feed cattle, burnt in situ by the farmers themselves or abandoned to wildfires or to pasture—not mulched. Crop diversification is not universal and is limited to rice and vegetables crops. Monocropping of rice, practised by 83.3% of inland valley farmers, requires large chemical fertilizer application despite their impacts on environment including land degradation and water contamination. A major challenge is to determine means of characterizing entire agro-ecosystems of inland valleys in a way that is simple enough to be effectively and efficiently monitored. Inland valley agricultural development projects might include backstopping activities and policies that enable monitoring of chemical inputs and farming practices in inland valleys to reduce negative impacts on the environment and human health.