Sandro Sacchelli

Overview of methods and tools for evaluating future woody biomass availability in European countries

Key messageThis analysis of the tools and methods currently in use for reporting woody biomass availability in 21 European countries has shown that most countries use, or are developing, National Forest Inventory-oriented models whereas the others use standwise forest inventory--oriented methods.ContextKnowledge of realistic and sustainable wood availability in Europe is highly relevant to define climate change mitigation strategies at national and European level, to support the development of realistic targets for increased use of renewable energy sources and of industry wood. Future scenarios at European level highlight a deficit of domestic wood supply compared to wood consumption, and some European countries state they are harvesting above the increment.AimsSeveral country-level studies on wood availability have been performed for international reporting. However, it remains essential to improve the knowledge on the projection methods used across Europe to better evaluate forecasts.MethodsAnalysis was based on descriptions supplied by the national correspondentsinvolved in USEWOOD COST Action (FP1001), and further enriched with additionaldata from international reports that allowedcharacterisation of the forests in these countries for the same base year.ResultsMethods currently used for projecting wood availability were described for 21 European countries. Projection systems based on National Forest Inventory (NFI) data prevail over methods based on forest management plans. Only a few countries lack nationwide projection tools, still using tools developed for specific areas.ConclusionsA wide range of NFI-based systems for projecting wood availability exists, being under permanent improvement. The validation of projection forecasts and the inclusion of climate sensitive growth models into these tools are common aims for most countries. Cooperation among countries would result in higher efficiency when developing and improving projection tools and better comparability among them.

State of the art of ecosystem services research at the global level: a multiscale quantitative review

A literature review focused on ecosystem services (ES) research on a worldwide level was performed. The work considered a quantitative analysis based on text mining. Digital information derived from more than 13,000 scientific papers was processed. Temporal trends of ES, the primary research interest, and specificities of different contexts were depicted. Based on a multiscale approach, the above parameters were defined for the global level, regions of the world and countries. The results focused on the relation among ES issues with: 1) techniques for the monetary quantification of ES; 2) the investigation of payments for ecosystem services at a regional scale; 3) the analysis of sustainability pillars. The applied methodology was an updatable and flexible approach useful for the quantitative literature review of specific ES branches, as well as for gap analysis. The final remarks concentrated on future improvements to facilitate the widespread and user-friendly diffusion of the method.

Social, economic, and environmental impacts of biomass and biofuel supply chains

Abstract A literature review examining the primary methods and parameters applied to evaluate the sustainability of biomass and biofuel supply chains was conducted. This chapter focuses on the primary potential positive and negative impacts of bioenergy and biofuel production on environmental, economic, and social pillars of sustainability. Following a description of criteria and indicators suitable to compute biomass chain efficiency, particular attention is paid to integration techniques and mix-method approaches. The final remarks note the potential future trends of research in this sector, with particular emphasis being placed on the paradigm of complexity science and the evaluation of uncertainty in biomass chain assessment and management.

Optimisation of the regional energy supply network: a multi-objective analysis in the province of Florence (Italy)

This work presents an integrated method for the optimisation of a regional wood-energy supply network. The model is based on a scalar system that comprises a demand point (district heating plants (DHP)) and bio-energy sources (supply basin (SB)), each of which is related to a biomass terminal. The objective of optimisation is based on both technical-logistics and environmental parameters. An SB is defined by the anisotropic weighted Voronoi tessellation methodology. The parameters are then aggregated to a multi-objective analysis that includes the optimisation of variables and compromise programming approach. Results permit the identification of the best supply chain organisation and the determination of the agro-forest energy districts where rural policy and intervention could be applied. The model was tested in the province of Florence (central Italy) to depict efficient scenarios for the fuelling of DHPs.

Integrated Management of Forest Ecosystem Services: An Optimization Model Based on Multi-objective Analysis and Metaheuristic Approach

The goal of this research was to implement an optimization model that allows definition of best management strategies in the forest sector. The case study is depicted in a coniferous stand (silver fir—Abies alba Mill.) of Tuscany (central Italy). Four ecosystem services were quantified from biophysical (timber produced, carbon stored, ecosystem diversity, recreational function) and economic (total economic value of the above parameters) perspective. The indicators are aggregated through a multi-objective approach (compromise programming). In the framework of forest seen as complex adaptive systems, different management strategies can lead to emergent reaction of forest functions. Due to nonlinear and non-continuous interactions as well as to the presence of feedbacks and loops among environmental and socioeconomic forest components, results are optimized by means of differential evolution and particle swarm algorithm. The genetic algorithm was applied to minimize the distance from ideal point. The best value of the decision variable (rotation period) was defined for different scenarios based on compensatory level of criteria, constraints and presence/absence of forest thinning. Conflicting trends and trade-offs are highlighted when different criteria were optimized. Among outputs, thinning intervention seems to reduce the performance of several criteria in the study area. Strengths and weaknesses of the model as well as potential future improvements are finally discussed.

Urban-rural bioenergy planning as a strategy for the sustainable development of inner areas: A GIS-based method to chance the forest chain

We describe the application of the spatial-based r.green.biomassfor Decision Support System (DSS), which is able to calculate the energy available from forest biomass residues, in a case study in an inner area of Italy, the Union of Pistoia Apennines Municipalities. Inner areas need strategies to counteract demographic abandonment as well as to improve socioeconomic conditions. This work considers the suitability of urban buildings to be served by biomass-energy plants as well as the supply/demand balance at the basin level. The suitability of the implementation of district-heating plants (DHP) was computed by means of a multicriteria analysis (MCA) model able to combine the following parameters: (i) yearly energy needs at the building level, (ii) building density, (iii) distance from the gas network and (iv) accessibility of the buildings/urban context. The MCA involved various experts and stakeholders to choose the parameters and to assess the weight to be assigned. A participative approach based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was carried out. Once DHP suitability and potential energy demand had been calculated, the basin energy density was computed. The optimal localization of DHP was then determined at the geographic level to analyze the technical and economic availability of the bioenergy supply. The new DHP implementation was analyzed for basins with both a high supply/demand ratio and high building suitability. Using the r.green.biomassfor software, the bioenergy availability was estimated from both ecological and economic points of view, while taking into account several environmental, technical, normative and financial variables. A series of scenarios have been analyzed using sensitivity analysis. The absence/presence of bioenergy production, as well as the variability of woodchip prices, stressed the high importance of wood-residue valorization for the improvement of the forest chain. The approach we tested allows for better understanding and valuation of marginal areas in which planning is more difficult because resources are unevenly distributed. By highlighting suitable basins, energy planning is focused where it is advisable. The DSS is an effective tool for planning and communicating spatially explicit results to stakeholders. Although forest biomass covers a limited amount of energy demand and must be integrated with other renewable sources, forest-biomass valorization has huge positive side effects on the energy-supply production chain and can be a driving force to revive local economies. Our spatial results confirm the validity of a holistic strategy for local development.

Place-Based Policy-Making and Community Security: A Decision Support System for Integrated Planning of Urban Ecosystem Services and Disservices

The objective of the work is to implement a model based on Geographic Information System (GIS) to develop best-management strategies for urban trees. In the model, various objectives, such as the maximization of population security and the optimization of intervention on trees (i.e., economic improvement of Visual Tree Assessment and pruning operation), are considered. The Decision Support System (DSS) uses dynamic simulation able to take into account annual growth of single plants, as well as annual budgets devoted to green urban care by a local administration. The intervention priority concerning trees was based on a model that evaluates two opposing lines of services/disservices: the first is the potential value of single trees and green areas for recreational aspects based on a multicriteria approach to merge various indicators; the second is represented by the probability of falling trees and branches that can cause damage to people, vehicles and buildings, as well as other facilities. Cascine’s Park in the city of Florence (Italy) was selected as study area. Results highlight the priority of intervention over a period of five years and their spatial distribution. The main strengths, as well as the weaknesses of the model, are also addressed in the paper. In particular, economic and managerial benefits in case of DSS’ application are stressed.

Pianificazione agroenergetica sostenibile: la modellistica come strumento di supporto alle decisioni

Il presente lavoro si prefigge di delineare un quadro relativo alle metodologie di analisi che possono essere impiegate nei processi di pianificazione territoriale, per la caratterizzazione dei criteri di sostenibilita e la quantificazione delle biomasse a uso energetico. Dopo aver definito una sintesi degli strumenti di pianificazione agroenergetica, presenti a livello nazionale, sono state esaminate alcune tra le piu diffuse tecniche di modellizzazione ambientale e socio-economica applicate per l’analisi quali/quantitativa della produzione e impiego di bioenergia di origine agro-forestale. A conclusione del lavoro vengono evidenziate possibili linee future di ricerca atte a favorire l’impiego degli strumenti di modellizzazione come Sistemi di Supporto alle Decisioni.

L’IMPATTO DEI CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI SUL SETTORE PRODUTTIVO FORESTALE TOSCANO: STIMA DEI DANNI ECONOMICI NEL PERIODO 2007-2099

Il cambiamento climatico evidenziatosi negli ultimi decenni ed in particolare negli ultimi anni, comporta numerosi impatti dal punto di vista ambientale e socio-economico, sia a scala globale che locale. In quest’ottica la definizione di tecniche che permettano una quantificazione economica dei danni da cambiamento climatico diviene fondamentale per l’applicazione di adeguate forme di gestione dei sistemi a rischio. In base alla definizione di vulnerabilita e resilienza fornita dall’Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, e stata definita una serie di indicatori utili per la valutazione delle due precedenti caratteristiche per l’ambito forestale. La quantificazione del danno economico sul settore forestale potenzialmente derivante dal cambiamento climatico, e stata implementata attraverso l’utilizzo della teoria dell’evidenza di Dempster-Shafer e della tecnica della logica sfocata. Il risultato derivante dalla quantificazione di rischio e resilienza, e stato utilizzato per la stima dei danni economici grazie ad una procedura di analisi spaziale su mappe raster. Infine, il modello di calcolo elaborato, e stato testato sul territorio della regione Toscana.