Santosh Nepal

Impact of climate change on the hydrological regime of the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra river basins: a review of the literature

The Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra river basins support 700 million people in Asia. The water resources are used for irrigation, drinking, industry, navigation and hydropower. This paper reviews the literature on the impact of climate change on the hydrological regime of these river basins and suggests that the different basins are likely to be affected in different ways. Climate change will have a marked affect on meltwater in the Indus Basin and may result in increased flood risk in the Brahmaputra Basin. The overall impact on annual discharge is likely to be low, but more studies are required to understand intra-annual changes and the impact of extreme events.

Upstream-downstream linkages of hydrological processes in the Himalayan region

Understanding the upstream-downstream linkages in hydrological processes is essential for water resources planning in river basins. Although there are many studies of individual aspects of these processes in the Himalayan region, studies along the length of the basins are limited. This study summarizes the present state of knowledge about linkages in hydrological processes between upstream and downstream areas of river basins in the Himalayan region based on a literature review. The paper studies the linkages between the changes in the physical environment of upstream areas (land use, snow storage, and soil erosion) and of climate change on the downstream water availability, flood and dry season flow, and erosion and sedimentation. It is argued that these linkages are complex due to the extreme altitudinal range associated with the young and fragile geology, extreme seasonal and spatial variation in rainfall, and diversity of anthropogenic processes. Based on the findings, the paper concludes that integrated systems analysis is required to understand the holistic complexity of upstream-downstream linkages of hydrological processes in the river basin context. The integrated land and water resources management (ILWRM) approach can be instrumental in developing adaptive solutions to problems and can also enable stakeholders of upstream and downstream areas with various interests and needs to work together for the better utilization and management of land and water resources. As a part of this, the specific circumstances of the upstream communities, who live in fragile and inaccessible mountain areas with limited resource opportunities, should be taken into account so that incentive mechanisms can be established to encourage and acknowledge their contribution.

Himalayan waters at the crossroads: issues and challenges

The Hindu Kush Himalayas are called the water towers of Asia as they are the source of 10 major rivers and have the largest snow and ice deposits outside the two poles. Water emanating from the HKH provides food, energy and ecosystem services to up to 1.3 billion people. Climate change and socio-economic and demographic changes have put unprecedented pressure on these water resources, leading to uncertain supplies, increased demands and higher risks of extreme events like floods and droughts. The eight articles in this special issue highlight various dimensions of the Himalayan water resources by focusing on both physical and social science aspects of water management.

Future changes in hydro-climatic extremes in the Upper Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra River basins

Future hydrological extremes, such as floods and droughts, may pose serious threats for the livelihoods in the upstream domains of the Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra. For this reason, the impacts of climate change on future hydrological extremes is investigated in these river basins. We use a fully-distributed cryospheric-hydrological model to simulate current and future hydrological fluxes and force the model with an ensemble of 8 downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs) that are selected from the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The model is calibrated on observed daily discharge and geodetic mass balances. The climate forcing and the outputs of the hydrological model are used to evaluate future changes in climatic extremes, and hydrological extremes by focusing on high and low flows. The outcomes show an increase in the magnitude of climatic means and extremes towards the end of the 21st century where climatic extremes tend to increase stronger than climatic means. Future mean discharge and high flow conditions will very likely increase. These increases might mainly be the result of increasing precipitation extremes. To some extent temperature extremes might also contribute to increasing discharge extremes, although this is highly dependent on magnitude of change in temperature extremes. Low flow conditions may occur less frequently, although the uncertainties in low flow projections can be high. The results of this study may contribute to improved understanding on the implications of climate change for the occurrence of future hydrological extremes in the Hindu Kush–Himalayan region.

Spatial GR4J conceptualization of the Tamor glaciated alpine catchment in Eastern Nepal: evaluation of GR4JSG against streamflow and MODIS snow extent

Snow and glacial melt processes are an important part of the Himalayan water balance. Correct quantification of melt runoff processes is necessary to understand the regions vulnerability to climate change. This paper describes in detail an application of conceptual GR4J hydrological model in the Tamor catchment in Eastern Nepal using typical elevation band and degree-day factor approaches to model Himalayan snow and glacial melt processes. The model aims to provide a simple model that meets most water planning applications. The paper contributes a model conceptualization (GR4JSG) that enables coarse evaluation of modelled snow extents against remotely sensed Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer snow extent. Novel aspects include the glacial store in GR4JSG and examination of how the parameters controlling snow and glacial stores correlate with existing parameters of GR4J. The model is calibrated using a Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov Chain method against observed streamflow for one glaciated catchment with reliable data. Evaluation of the modelled streamflow with observed streamflow gave Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.88 and Percent Bias of <4%. Comparison of the modelled snow extents with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer gave R2 of 0.46, with calibration against streamflow only. The contribution of melt runoff to total discharge from the catchment is 14–16% across different experiments. The model is highly sensitive to rainfall and temperature data, which suffer from known problems and biases, for example because of stations being located predominantly in valleys and at lower elevations. Testing of the model in other Himalayan catchments may reveal additional limitations.

Assessment of spatial transferability of process‐based hydrological model parameters in two neighbouring catchments in the Himalayan Region

Abstract Estimating the hydrological regime of ungauged catchments in the Himalayan region is challenging due to a lack of sufficient monitoring stations. In this paper, the spatial transferability of the model parameters of the process‐oriented J2000 hydrological model was investigated in 2 glaciated subcatchments of the Koshi river basin in eastern Nepal. The catchments have a high degree of similarity with respect to their static landscape features. The model was first calibrated (1986–1991) and validated (1992–1997) in the Dudh Koshi subcatchment. The calibrated and validated model parameters were then transferred to the nearby Tamor catchment (2001–2009). Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were carried out for both subcatchments to discover the sensitivity range of the parameters in the two catchments. The model represented the overall hydrograph well in both subcatchments, including baseflow, rising and falling limbs; however, the peak flows were underestimated. The efficiency results according to both Nash–Sutcliffe (ENS) and the coefficient of determination (r2) were above 0.84 in both catchments (1986–1997 in Dudh Koshi and 2001–2009 in Tamor). The ranking of the parameters in respect to their sensitivity matched well for both catchments while taking ENS and log Nash–Sutcliffe (LNS) efficiencies into account. However, there were some differences in sensitivity to ENS and LNS for moderately and less‐sensitive parameters, although the majority (13 out of 16 for ENS and 16 out of 16 for LNS) had a sensitivity response in a similar range. The generalized uncertainty likelihood estimation results suggest that the parameter uncertainty are most of the time within the range and the ensemble mean matches very good (ENS: 0.84) with observed discharge. The results indicate that transfer of the J2000 parameters to a neighbouring catchment in the Himalayan region with similar physiographic landscape characteristics is viable. This indicates the possibility of applying a calibrated process‐based J2000 model to other ungauged catchments in the Himalayan region, which could provide important insights into the hydrological system dynamics and provide much needed information to support water resources planning and management.

Downstream Implications of Climate Change in the Himalayas

The Himalayas, Hindu Kush, Karakorum mountains and the Tibetan Plateau make up the Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region, an area that has more snow and ice resources than any other region outside of the Polar Regions (Fig. 1). The HKH region extends 3500 km over all or part of eight countries from Afghanistan in the west to Myanmar in the east. About 200 million people live in the HKH mountains, while 1.3 billion people depend directly or indirectly on waters that originate in the mountains in 10 major river basins. These mountains are under threat from climate change and other socio-economic changes that will pose a challenge for Asia’s future. This chapter reviews the state of knowledge concerning the mountain’s water resources, draws out implications for downstream users, and recommends key actions to be taken.