Sarah Mubareka

A high resolution land use/cover modelling framework for Europe: introducing the EU-ClueScanner100 model

In this paper we introduce the new configuration of the EU-ClueScanner model (EUCS100) that is designed for evaluating the impact of policy alternatives on the European territory at the high spatial resolution of 100 meters. The high resolution in combination with the vast extent of the model called for considerable reprogramming to optimize processing speed. In addition, the calibration of the model was revised to account for the fact that different spatial processes may be prominent at this more detailed resolution. This new configuration of EU-ClueScanner also differs from its predecessors in that it has increased functionalities which allow the modeller more flexibility. It is now possible to work with irregular regions of interest, composed of any configuration of NUTS 2 regions. The structure of the land allocation model allows it to act as a bridge for different sector and indicator models and has the capacity to connect Global and European scale to the local level of environmental impacts. The EUCS100 model is at the core of a European Land Use Modelling Platform that aims to produce policy-relevant information related to land use/cover dynamics.

A land-use-based modelling chain to assess the impacts of Natural Water Retention Measures on Europe’s Green Infrastructure

This article details the process of integrating models to answer a specific policy-driven question: ‘What could be the impact of proposed Natural Water Retention Measures (NWRMs) on Europe’s Green Infrastructure (GI)?’ It describes the new Land Use Modelling Platform (LUMP), now enabling a high spatial scale (100-m) and large coverage (pan-European), whereby several sector-specific models contribute to assessing the impact of regional-level policy on a given spatial topic of concern. The configuration (land claims and land allocations modules) and calibration (accessibility and biophysical suitability) of the LUMP are explained. Four NWRM scenarios (riparian areas, afforestation, grassland and baseline scenario) are configured to run the simulations. For the reference: year 2006, the spatial representation of GI is based on land-use features of a refined version of the CORINE Land Cover (CLC), and resumed as connected components made of nodes and links. Mathematical morphological image processing and network graph theory model, available from the free software package GUIDOS (the Joint Research Center of the European Commission), enabled the measurement of the GI connectivity and identified most critical links. Results show that the competition for land claimed by different economic sectors, combined with policy-driven rule-sets for the implementation of different NWRMs, yields very different results for the 2030 land-use projections, and subsequently for the morphology of GI. Three indicators associated with the morphology of GI are computed in order to assess the model outputs for 2030. The indicators are computed to answer the following questions: (1) How is the quantity of GI affected by each of the NWRM, and what proportion of that GI is most valuable? (2) What is the location of the most critical nodes and connectors of GI, and what land-use conversions occur under these? (3) Are the average components getting larger or smaller? Whereas the grassland measure results in the largest net increase of GI, the afforestation measure results in the overall largest number of hectares of key nodes and links within the network. Land conversions occur under the critical GI nodes and links, with a large increase in agricultural areas, especially for the riparian measure under critical nodes and the grassland measure under critical links. Also predominant is the swapping of land from pasture to forest under critical links with the afforestation measure. The riparian measure most increases the average size of GI components, and all three measures contribute to bridging two large components which were divided in the 2006 land-use map, thus increasing the size of the largest component by more than 50%.

A multi-criteria optimisation of scenarios for the protection of water resources in Europe: Support to the EU Blueprint to Safeguard Europe’s Waters

A modelling environment has been developed to assess optimum combinations of water retention measures, water savings measures, and nutrient reduction measures for continental Europe. This modelling environment consists of linking the agricultural CAPRI model, the LUMP land use model, the LISFLOOD water quantity model, the EPIC water quality model, the LISQUAL combined water quantity, quality and hydro-economic model, and a multi-criteria optimisation routine. Simulations have been carried out to assess the effects of water retention measures, water savings measures, and nutrient reduction measures on several hydro-chemical indicators, such as the Water Exploitation Index, Environmental Flow indicators, N and P concentrations in rivers, the 50-year return period river discharge as an indicator for flooding, and economic losses due to water scarcity for the agricultural sector, the industrial sector, and the public sector. Also, potential flood damage of a 100-year return period flood has been used as an indicator.

An integrated modelling framework for the forest-based bioeconomy

This paper describes the conceptual design of a regional modelling framework to assess scenarios for the forest-based bioeconomy. The framework consists of a core set of tools: a partial equilibrium model for the forest sector, a forestry dynamics model for forest growth and harvest and a wood resources balance sheet. The framework can be expanded to include an energy model, a land use model and a forest owner decision model. This partially integrated, multi-disciplinary modelling framework is described, with particular emphasis on the structure of the variables to be exchanged between the framework tools. The data exchange is subject to a series of integrity checks to ensure that the model is computing the correct information in the correct format and order of elements.

Modelling the spatial allocation of second-generation feedstock lignocellulosic crops in Europe

This paper presents a modelling approach for the spatial allocation of second-generation feedstock (lignocellulosic crops) under a reference policy scenario in European Union of 28 Member State (EU-28). The land-use modelling platform (LUMP) was used in order to simulate the land-use changes from 2010 to 2050. Within the LUMP, the land demand for these lignocellulosic energy crops was derived from the Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact analysis model. Suitability maps were generated for two main energy crop groups: herbaceous and woody lignocellulosic crops, using multicriteria analysis techniques. Biophysical factors (climate, soil properties and topographical aspects), natural and artificial constraints and location-specific land categories were defined as relevant components within the platform. A sensitivity analysis determined the most influential factors to be temperature, precipitation, length of growing period and number of frost-free days. The results of the modelling exercise in the LUMP reflect the significant renewable energy contribution from energy crops in EU-28, which was estimated to be between 2.3 EJ/year (in 2020) and 6.3 EJ/year (in 2050), accounting for 2.3% and 9.6% of total energy consumption in the EU-28. The results of the allocation were aggregated at regional level to analyse trends. Regions with considerably high demand were identified in Germany, the United Kingdom and Poland.