Sasha Bernatsky

Derivation and validation of the systemic lupus international collaborating clinics classification criteria for systemic lupus erythematosus

OBJECTIVE The Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) group revised and validated the American College of Rheumatology (ACR) systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) classification criteria in order to improve clinical relevance, meet stringent methodology requirements, and incorporate new knowledge regarding the immunology of SLE. METHODS The classification criteria were derived from a set of 702 expert-rated patient scenarios. Recursive partitioning was used to derive an initial rule that was simplified and refined based on SLICC physician consensus. The SLICC group validated the classification criteria in a new validation sample of 690 new expert-rated patient scenarios. RESULTS Seventeen criteria were identified. In the derivation set, the SLICC classification criteria resulted in fewer misclassifications compared with the current ACR classification criteria (49 versus 70; P = 0.0082) and had greater sensitivity (94% versus 86%; P < 0.0001) and equal specificity (92% versus 93%; P = 0.39). In the validation set, the SLICC classification criteria resulted in fewer misclassifications compared with the current ACR classification criteria (62 versus 74; P = 0.24) and had greater sensitivity (97% versus 83%; P < 0.0001) but lower specificity (84% versus 96%; P < 0.0001). CONCLUSION The new SLICC classification criteria performed well in a large set of patient scenarios rated by experts. According to the SLICC rule for the classification of SLE, the patient must satisfy at least 4 criteria, including at least one clinical criterion and one immunologic criterion OR the patient must have biopsy-proven lupus nephritis in the presence of antinuclear antibodies or anti-double-stranded DNA antibodies.

Immediate and delayed impact of oral glucocorticoid therapy on risk of serious infection in older patients with rheumatoid arthritis: a nested case–control analysis

Objectives To explore the relationship of serious infection risk with current and prior oral glucocorticoid (GC) therapy in elderly patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Methods A case-control analysis matched 1947 serious infection cases to five controls, selected from 16207 RA patients aged ≥65 between 1985–2003 in Quebec, Canada. Adjusted odds ratios for infection associated with different GC patterns were estimated using conventional models and a weighted cumulative dose (WCD) model. Results The WCD model predicted risks better than conventional models. Current and recent GC doses had highest impact on current risk. Doses taken up to 2.5 years ago were also associated with increased risk, albeit to a lesser extent. A current user of 5mg prednisolone had a 30%, 46% or 100% increased risk of serious infection when used continuously for the last 3 months, 6 months or 3 years, respectively, compared to a non-user. The risk associated with 5mg prednisolone taken for the last 3 years was similar to that associated with 30mg taken for the last month. Discontinuing a two-year course of 10mg prednisolone six months ago halved the risk compared to ongoing use. Conclusions GC therapy is associated with infection risk in older patients with RA. The WCD model provided more accurate risk estimates than conventional models. Current and recent doses have greatest impact on infection risk, but the cumulative impact of doses taken in the last 2–3 years still affects risk. Knowing how risk depends on pattern of GC use will contribute to an improved benefit/harm assessment.

The relationship between cancer and medication exposures in systemic lupus erythaematosus: a case–cohort study

Objective: To examine if, in systemic lupus erythaematosus (SLE), exposure to immunosuppressive therapy (cyclophosphamide, azathioprine, methotrexate) increases cancer risk. Methods: A case–cohort study was performed within a multi-site international SLE cohort; subjects were linked to regional tumour registries to determine cancer cases occurring after entry into the cohort. We calculated the hazard ratio (HR) for cancer after exposure to an immunosuppressive drug, in models that controlled for other medications (anti-malarial drugs, systemic glucocorticoids, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), aspirin), smoking, age, sex, race/ethnicity, geographic location, calendar year, SLE duration, and lupus damage scores. In the primary analyses, exposures were treated categorically (ever/never) and as time-dependent. Results: Results are presented from 246 cancer cases and 538 controls without cancer. The adjusted HR for overall cancer risk after any immunosuppressive drug was 0.82 (95% CI 0.50–1.36). Age ⩾65, and the presence of non-malignancy damage were associated with overall cancer risk. For lung cancer (n = 35 cases), smoking was also a prominent risk factor. When looking at haematological cancers specifically (n = 46 cases), there was a suggestion of an increased risk after immunosuppressive drug exposures, particularly when these were lagged by a period of 5 years (adjusted HR 2.29, 95% CI 1.02–5.15). Conclusions: In our SLE sample, age ⩾65, damage, and tobacco exposure were associated with cancer risk. Though immunosuppressive therapy may not be the principal driving factor for overall cancer risk, it may contribute to an increased risk of haematological malignancies. Future studies are in progress to evaluate independent influence of medication exposures and disease activity on risk of malignancy.

Autoantibodies and neuropsychiatric events at the time of systemic lupus erythematosus diagnosis: Results from an international inception cohort study

OBJECTIVE To examine, in an inception cohort of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients, the association between neuropsychiatric (NP) events and anti-ribosomal P (anti-P), antiphospholipid (lupus anticoagulant [LAC], anticardiolipin), anti-beta2-glycoprotein I, and anti-NR2 glutamate receptor antibodies. METHODS NP events were identified using the American College of Rheumatology case definitions and clustered into central/peripheral and diffuse/focal events. Attribution of NP events to SLE was determined using decision rules of differing stringency. Autoantibodies were measured without knowledge of NP events or their attribution. RESULTS Four hundred twelve patients were studied (87.4% female; mean +/- SD age 34.9 +/- 13.5 years, mean +/- SD disease duration 5.0 +/- 4.2 months). There were 214 NP events in 133 patients (32.3%). The proportion of NP events attributed to SLE varied from 15% to 36%. There was no association between autoantibodies and NP events overall. However, the frequency of anti-P antibodies in patients with central NP events attributed to SLE was 4 of 20 (20%), versus 3 of 107 (2.8%) in patients with other NP events and 24 of 279 (8.6%) in those with no NP events (P = 0.04). Among patients with diffuse NP events, 3 of 11 had anti-P antibodies (27%), compared with 4 of 111 patients with other NP events (3.6%) and 24 of 279 of those with no NP events (8.6%) (P = 0.02). Specific clinical-serologic associations were found between anti-P and psychosis attributed to SLE (P = 0.02) and between LAC and cerebrovascular disease attributed to SLE (P = 0.038). There was no significant association between other autoantibodies and NP events. CONCLUSION Clinically distinct NP events attributed to SLE and occurring around the time of diagnosis were found to be associated with anti-P antibodies and LAC. This suggests that there are different autoimmune pathogenetic mechanisms, although low sensitivity limits the clinical application of testing for these antibodies.

Cancer risk in systemic lupus: An updated international multi-centre cohort study

OBJECTIVE To update estimates of cancer risk in SLE relative to the general population. METHODS A multisite international SLE cohort was linked with regional tumor registries. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated as the ratio of observed to expected cancers. RESULTS Across 30 centres, 16,409 patients were observed for 121,283 (average 7.4) person-years. In total, 644 cancers occurred. Some cancers, notably hematologic malignancies, were substantially increased (SIR 3.02, 95% confidence interval, CI, 2.48, 3.63), particularly non-Hodgkins lymphoma, NHL (SIR 4.39, 95% CI 3.46, 5.49) and leukemia. In addition, increased risks of cancer of the vulva (SIR 3.78, 95% CI 1.52, 7.78), lung (SIR 1.30, 95% CI 1.04, 1.60), thyroid (SIR 1.76, 95% CI 1.13, 2.61) and possibly liver (SIR 1.87, 95% CI 0.97, 3.27) were suggested. However, a decreased risk was estimated for breast (SIR 0.73, 95% CI 0.61-0.88), endometrial (SIR 0.44, 95% CI 0.23-0.77), and possibly ovarian cancers (0.64, 95% CI 0.34-1.10). The variability of comparative rates across different cancers meant that only a small increased risk was estimated across all cancers (SIR 1.14, 95% CI 1.05, 1.23). CONCLUSION These data estimate only a small increased risk in SLE (versus the general population) for cancer over-all. However, there is clearly an increased risk of NHL, and cancers of the vulva, lung, thyroid, and possibly liver. It remains unclear to what extent the association with NHL is mediated by innate versus exogenous factors. Similarly, the etiology of the decreased breast, endometrial, and possibly ovarian cancer risk is uncertain, though investigations are ongoing.

Atherosclerotic vascular events in a multinational inception cohort of systemic lupus erythematosus

To describe vascular events during an 8‐year followup in a multicenter systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) inception cohort and their attribution to atherosclerosis.

Malignancy and autoimmunity.

Purpose of reviewThe association of cancer with autoimmune disease has been under investigation for several years. Reports have appeared suggesting increased cancer risk in autoimmune rheumatic diseases. Evidence has been accumulating recently in rheumatoid arthritis, Sjogrens syndrome, systemic lupus erythematosus, and scleroderma/systemic sclerosis. This review focuses on recent publications regarding risk of cancer in these conditions. Recent findingsDespite a lack of a strong association between rheumatoid arthritis and cancer overall, studies show an increased risk for the development of lymphoma in rheumatoid arthritis. There are data suggesting an increased risk for rheumatoid arthritis patients regarding lung cancer. In Sjogrens syndrome-related malignancies, most publications in the past year relate to non-Hodgkins lymphomas, and suggest possible mechanisms driving the association. Data substantiate an increased risk of certain cancers in systemic lupus erythematosus; the risk appears to be most heightened for lymphoma. A recent cohort study examined cancer risk in scleroderma; the estimates were lower than previous studies had suggested, and the confidence intervals relatively imprecise, making a definitive conclusion difficult. SummaryThere have been several papers published related to cancer in the rheumatic diseases, particularly inflammatory arthritis, Sjogrens syndrome, systemic lupus erythematosus, and scleroderma/systemic sclerosis. Continuing interest in the association between autoimmune rheumatic diseases and malignancy is likely, given the potential impact in terms of understanding both rheumatic diseases and cancer.

Factors associated with damage accrual in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus: results from the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) Inception Cohort

Background and aims We studied damage accrual and factors determining development and progression of damage in an international cohort of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients. Methods The Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) Inception Cohort recruited patients within 15 months of developing four or more 1997 American College of Rheumatology (ACR) criteria for SLE; the SLICC/ACR damage index (SDI) was measured annually. We assessed relative rates of transition using maximum likelihood estimation in a multistate model. The Kaplan–Meier method estimated the probabilities for time to first increase in SDI score and Cox regression analysis was used to assess mortality. Results We recruited 1722 patients; mean (SD) age 35.0 (13.4) years at cohort entry. Patients with damage at enrolment were more likely to have further worsening of SDI (SDI 0 vs ≥1; p<0.001). Age, USA African race/ethnicity, SLEDAI-2K score, steroid use and hypertension were associated with transition from no damage to damage, and increase(s) in pre-existing damage. Male gender (relative transition rates (95% CI) 1.48 (1.06 to 2.08)) and USA Caucasian race/ethnicity (1.63 (1.08 to 2.47)) were associated with SDI 0 to ≥1 transitions; Asian race/ethnicity patients had lower rates of new damage (0.60 (0.39 to 0.93)). Antimalarial use was associated with lower rates of increases in pre-existing damage (0.63 (0.44 to 0.89)). Damage was associated with future mortality (HR (95% CI) 1.46 (1.18 to 1.81) per SDI point). Conclusions Damage in SLE predicts future damage accrual and mortality. We identified several potentially modifiable risk factors for damage accrual; an integrated strategy to address these may improve long-term outcomes.

Serious infections in a population‐based cohort of 86,039 seniors with rheumatoid arthritis

To assess risk and risk factors for serious infections in seniors with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) using a case–control study nested within an RA cohort.

Autoantibodies as biomarkers for the prediction of neuropsychiatric events in systemic lupus erythematosus

Objective Neuropsychiatric events occur unpredictably in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and most biomarker associations remain to be prospectively validated. This study examined a disease inception cohort of 1047 SLE patients to determine which autoantibodies at enrolment predicted subsequent neuropsychiatric events. Methods Patients with a recent SLE diagnosis were assessed prospectively for up to 10 years for neuropsychiatric events using the American College of Rheumatology case definitions. Decision rules of graded stringency determined whether neuropsychiatric events were attributable to SLE. Associations between the first neuropsychiatric event and baseline autoantibodies (lupus anticoagulant (LA), anticardiolipin, anti-β2 glycoprotein-I, anti-ribosomal P and anti-NR2 glutamate receptor) were tested by Cox proportional hazards regression. Results Disease duration at enrolment was 5.4±4.2 months, follow-up was 3.6±2.6 years. Patients were 89.1% female with mean (±SD) age 35.2±13.7 years. 495/1047 (47.3%) developed one or more neuropsychiatric event (total 917 events). Neuropsychiatric events attributed to SLE were 15.4% (model A) and 28.2% (model B). At enrolment 21.9% of patients had LA, 13.4% anticardiolipin, 15.1% anti-β2 glycoprotein-I, 9.2% anti-ribosomal P and 13.7% anti-NR2 antibodies. LA at baseline was associated with subsequent intracranial thrombosis (total n=22) attributed to SLE (model B) (HR 2.54, 95% CI 1.08 to 5.94). Anti-ribosomal P antibody was associated with subsequent psychosis (total n=14) attributed to SLE (model B) (HR 3.92, 95% CI 1.23 to 12.5, p=0.02). Other autoantibodies did not predict neuropsychiatric events. Conclusion In a prospective study of 1047 recently diagnosed SLE patients, LA and anti-ribosomal P antibodies are associated with an increased future risk of intracranial thrombosis and lupus psychosis, respectively.