Scott E. Lowe

Climate change, water rights, and water supply: The case of irrigated agriculture in Idaho

We conduct a hedonic analysis to estimate the response of agricultural land use to water supply information under the Prior Appropriation Doctrine by using Idaho as a case study. Our analysis includes long-term climate (weather) trends and water supply conditions as well as seasonal water supply forecasts. A farm-level panel data set, which accounts for the priority effects of water rights and controls for diversified crop mixes and rotation practices, is used. Our results indicate that farmers respond to the long-term surface and ground water conditions as well as to the seasonal water supply variations. Climate change-induced variations in climate and water supply conditions could lead to substantial damages to irrigated agriculture. We project substantial losses (up to 32%) of the average crop revenue for major agricultural areas under future climate scenarios in Idaho. Finally, farmers demonstrate significantly varied responses given their water rights priorities, which imply that the distributional impact of climate change is sensitive to institutions such as the Prior Appropriation Doctrine.

Climate, wildfire, and erosion ensemble foretells more sediment in western USA watersheds

The area burned annually by wildfires is expected to increase worldwide due to climate change. Burned areas increase soil erosion rates within watersheds, which can increase sedimentation in downstream rivers and reservoirs. However, which watersheds will be impacted by future wildfires is largely unknown. Using an ensemble of climate, fire, and erosion models, we show that postfire sedimentation is projected to increase for nearly nine tenths of watersheds by >10% and for more than one third of watersheds by >100% by the 2041 to 2050 decade in the western USA. The projected increases are statistically significant for more than eight tenths of the watersheds. In the western USA, many human communities rely on water from rivers and reservoirs that originates in watersheds where sedimentation is projected to increase. Increased sedimentation could negatively impact water supply and quality for some communities, in addition to affecting stream channel stability and aquatic ecosystems.

An analysis of irrigated agricultural outcomes under the prior appropriation doctrine: hypotheses and applications

This article measures irrigated agricultural outcomes under the prior appropriation doctrine by developing a model of farmers’ land allocations in response to water supply change. The modelling approach considers the institutional factors of water rights and permits the inclusive determination of water and land allocations. We utilize farm-level data of irrigated agriculture in Water District #1 in Idaho to examine the predictions from our theoretical model. The water rights priority date is consolidated at the farm level and used to differentiate farmers’ responses. We test a set of hypotheses that relate to water supply and crop revenue. Our results suggest that the water rights priority has a profound impact on agricultural outcomes, indicating strong institutional effects and weak influence of market-based approaches. Farmers respond to both long-term and seasonal water supply change and variation, and they respond to seasonal water supply forecasts in varied ways depending on their water rights portfolios, thus signalling a disproportionate distribution of potential impacts of water supply change.

The City-Level Effects of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments

This paper examines whether the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments caused the decline in ambient concentrations of particulate matter (PM10) in California over the 1990–2000 period. Consistent with previous studies, we find that PM10 nonattainment status at the county level is not a significant factor in explaining the reductions in PM10. However, when we allow for spatially heterogeneous treatment effects within nonattainment counties, and incorporate measures of community characteristics, climate, geography, transboundary pollution, and industrial composition and scale, we find that nonattainment designations at the city level account for a 6% reduction in ambient PM10 concentrations. (JEL Q53, Q58)

An integrated analysis of the effects of local water institutions on irrigated agriculture outcomes in the arid western United States

ABSTRACT Irrigation water rights and their governance structures constitute the foundation of local water institutions and profoundly influence water resource allocations, irrigated agricultural productivity and other consumptive water uses in the arid climate zones. This article explores the regional structures of irrigation water rights and water governance and empirically analyses the priority effects of water rights on irrigated agriculture at the micro level in Idaho, an arid and semiarid state in the western United States. We integrate a unique data set of water rights and water supplies with agricultural features and environmental characteristics into our empirical analysis. Results indicate that seniority in water resources allocation has significant, positive effects on both the average crop revenue and crop water use efficiency. Local water rights structures differ significantly in seniority and water sources from region to region. In response to the heterogeneity in local water rights structures, the aforementioned effect of allocative priority of water rights on average crop revenue per hectare and crop water productivity varies significantly, reaching up to an 87% difference, when measured across regions. In addition, the priority effects of water rights are nonlinear, which reflects the influence of historical patterns of water rights establishment on water institutions to date.

“Housing market effects of inclusionary zoning”: From cityscape (2009)

Part 1: Conflicting Motivations for Housing Policy in the US Part 2: Conflicting Views of Causes of Housing Problems, Proper Focus of Assistance Part 3: Low Income Homeownership - Historical and Current Perspectives Part 4: Shifting Emphases in the Provision of Affordable Housing: Production, Vouchers and Preservation Part 5: Competing Goals: Revitalization of Poor Neighborhoods versus Moving to Opportunity? Part 6: Development Regulations and subsidies as Cause, Solution to Housing Problems Part 7: Housing and Race: Enduring Challenges, Debated Strategies Part 8: What Next? The Future of Housing Policy