Scott M. Adams

Observing the Next Galactic Supernova

No supernova (SN) in the Milky Way has been observed since the invention of the optical telescope, instruments for other wavelengths, neutrino detectors, or gravitational wave observatories. It would be a tragedy to miss the opportunity to fully characterize the next one. To aid preparations for its observations, we model the distance, extinction, and magnitude probability distributions of a successful Galactic core-collapse supernova (ccSN), its shock breakout radiation, and its massive star progenitor. We find, at very high probability ( 100%), that the next Galactic SN will easily be detectable in the near-IR and that near-IR photometry of the progenitor star very likely ( 92%) already exists in the Two Micron All Sky Survey. Most ccSNe (98%) will be easily observed in the optical, but a significant fraction (43%) will lack observations of the progenitor due to a combination of survey sensitivity and confusion. If neutrino detection experiments can quickly disseminate a likely position (~3°), we show that a modestly priced IR camera system can probably detect the shock breakout radiation pulse even in daytime (64% for the cheapest design). Neutrino experiments should seriously consider adding such systems, both for their scientific return and as an added and internal layer of protection against false triggers. We find that shock breakouts from failed ccSNe of red supergiants may be more observable than those of successful SNe due to their lower radiation temperatures. We review the process by which neutrinos from a Galactic ccSN would be detected and announced. We provide new information on the EGADS system and its potential for providing instant neutrino alerts. We also discuss the distance, extinction, and magnitude probability distributions for the next Galactic Type Ia supernova (SN Ia). Based on our modeled observability, we find a Galactic ccSN rate of per century and a Galactic SN Ia rate of per century for a total Galactic SN rate of per century is needed to account for the SNe observed over the last millennium, which implies a Galactic star formation rate of M ☉ yr–1.

Stellar mergers are common

The observed Galactic rate of stellar mergers or the initiation of common envelope phases brighter than M_V=-3 (M_I=-4) is of order 0.5 (0.3)/year with 90% confidence statistical uncertainties of 0.24-1.1 (0.14-0.65) and factor of 2 systematic uncertainties. The (peak) luminosity function is roughly dN/dL L^(-1.4+/-0.3), so the rates for events more luminous than V1309 Sco (M_V=-7 mag) or V838Mon (M_V=-10 mag) are lower at r~0.1/year and 0.03/year, respectively. The peak luminosity is a steep function of progenitor mass, L M^(2-3). This very roughly parallels the scaling of luminosity with mass on the main sequence, but the transients are ~2000-4000 times more luminous at peak. Combining these, the mass function of the progenitors, dN/dM M^(-2.0+/-0.8), is consistent with the initial mass function, albeit with broad uncertainties. These observational results are also broadly consistent with the estimates of binary population synthesis models. While extragalactic variability surveys can better define the rates and properties of the high luminosity events, systematic, moderate depth (I>16 mag) surveys of the Galactic plane are needed to characterize the low luminosity events. The existing Galactic samples are only ~20% complete and Galactic surveys are (at best) reaching a typical magnitude limit of <13 mag.

The search for failed supernovae with the Large Binocular Telescope: confirmation of a disappearing star

We present Hubble Space Telescope imaging confirming the optical disappearance of the failed supernova (SN) candidate identified by Gerke, Kochanek & Stanek. This ∼25 M⊙ red supergiant experienced a weak ∼10^6 L⊙ optical outburst in 2009 and is now at least 5 mag fainter than the progenitor in the optical. The mid-IR flux has slowly decreased to the lowest levels since the first measurements in 2004. There is faint (2000–3000 L⊙) near-IR emission likely associated with the source. We find the late-time evolution of the source to be inconsistent with obscuration from an ejected, dusty shell. Models of the spectral energy distribution indicate that the remaining bolometric luminosity is >6 times fainter than that of the progenitor and is decreasing as ∼t^(−4/3). We conclude that the transient is unlikely to be an SN impostor or stellar merger. The event is consistent with the ejection of the envelope of a red supergiant in a failed SN and the late-time emission could be powered by fallback accretion on to a newly formed black hole. Future IR and X-ray observations are needed to confirm this interpretation of the fate for the star.

The search for failed supernovae with the Large Binocular Telescope: constraints from 7 yr of data

We report updated results for the first 7 yr of our programme to monitor 27 galaxies within 10 Mpc using the Large Binocular Telescope to search for failed supernovae (SNe) – core collapses of massive stars that form black holes without luminous SNe. In the new data, we identify no new compelling candidates and confirm the existing candidate. Given the six successful core-collapse SNe in the sample and one likely failed SN, the implied fraction of core collapses that result in failed SNe is f=0.14^(+0.33)_(−0.10) at 90 per cent confidence. If the current candidate is a failed SN, the fraction of failed SN naturally explains the missing high-mass red supergiants SN progenitors and the black hole mass function. If the current candidate is ultimately rejected, the data imply a 90 per cent confidence upper limit on the failed SN fraction of f < 0.35.

Almost gone: SN 2008S and NGC 300 2008OT-1 are fainter than their progenitors

We present late-time Hubble and Spitzer Space Telescope imaging of SN 2008S and NGC 300 2008OT-1, the prototypes of a common class of stellar transients whose true nature is debated. Both objects are still fading and are now >15 times fainter than the progenitors in the mid-IR and are undetected in the optical and near-IR. Data from the Large Binocular Telescope and Magellan show that neither source has been variable in the optical since fading in 2010. We present models of surviving sources obscured by dusty shells or winds and find that extreme dust models are needed for surviving stars to be successfully hidden by dust. Explaining these transients as supernovae explosions, such as the electron capture supernovae believed to be associated with extreme AGB stars, seems an equally viable solution. Though SN 2008S is not detected in Chandra X-Ray Observatory data taken in 2012, the flux limits allow the fading IR source to be powered solely by the shock interaction of ejecta with the circumstellar medium if the shock velocity at the time of the observation was >20% slower than estimated from emission line widths while the transient was still optically bright. Continued SST monitoring and 10-20 micron observations with JWST can resolve any remaining ambiguities.

LOSS's first supernova? New limits on the ‘impostor’ SN 1997bs

We present new, late-time Hubble Space Telescope and Spitzer Space Telescope observations of the archetypal supernova (SN) impostor SN 1997bs. We show that SN 1997bs remains much fainter than its progenitor, posing a challenge for the canonical picture of late-time obscuration by dust forming in a shell ejected during the transient. The possibility that the star survived cloaked behind a dusty, steady wind is also disfavored. The simplest explanation is that SN 1997bs was a subluminous Type IIn SN, although it is currently impossible to rule out the possibility that the star survived either behind an obscuring dusty shell

The environmental dependence of the incidence of galactic tidal features

\gtrsim 1 M_{\odot}

Discovery of an overdensity of Lyman alpha emitters around a z ∼ 4 QSO with the Large Binocular Telescope

or with a significantly decreased intrinsic luminosity. Continued monitoring of the system is the most promising means of ultimately resolving the question.

DISCOVERY OF FIVE CANDIDATE ANALOGS FOR η CARINAE IN NEARBY GALAXIES

In a sample of 54 galaxy clusters (0.04 < z < 0.15) containing 3551 early-type galaxies suitable for study, we identify those with tidal features both interactively and automatically. We find that ~3% have tidal features that can be detected with data that reach a 3σ sensitivity limit of 26.5 mag arcsec–2. Regardless of the method used to classify tidal features, or the fidelity imposed on such classifications, we find a deficit of tidally disturbed galaxies with decreasing clustercentric radius that is most pronounced inside of ~0.5 R 200. We cannot distinguish whether the trend arises from an increasing likelihood of recent mergers with increasing clustercentric radius or a decrease in the lifetime of tidal features with decreasing clustercentric radius. We find no evidence for a relationship between local density and the incidence of tidal features, but our local density measure has large uncertainties. We find interesting behavior in the rate of tidal features among cluster early-types as a function of clustercentric radius and expect such results to provide constraints on the effect of the cluster environment on the structure of galaxy halos, the build-up of the red sequence of galaxies, and the origin of the intracluster stellar population.

iPTF survey for cool transients

Measurements of QSO clustering in the SDSS show that