Sebastien Biraud

Anthropogenic emissions of methane in the United States

Significance Successful regulation of greenhouse gas emissions requires knowledge of current methane emission sources. Existing state regulations in California and Massachusetts require ∼15% greenhouse gas emissions reductions from current levels by 2020. However, government estimates for total US methane emissions may be biased by 50%, and estimates of individual source sectors are even more uncertain. This study uses atmospheric methane observations to reduce this level of uncertainty. We find greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture and fossil fuel extraction and processing (i.e., oil and/or natural gas) are likely a factor of two or greater than cited in existing studies. Effective national and state greenhouse gas reduction strategies may be difficult to develop without appropriate estimates of methane emissions from these source sectors. This study quantitatively estimates the spatial distribution of anthropogenic methane sources in the United States by combining comprehensive atmospheric methane observations, extensive spatial datasets, and a high-resolution atmospheric transport model. Results show that current inventories from the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research underestimate methane emissions nationally by a factor of ∼1.5 and ∼1.7, respectively. Our study indicates that emissions due to ruminants and manure are up to twice the magnitude of existing inventories. In addition, the discrepancy in methane source estimates is particularly pronounced in the south-central United States, where we find total emissions are ∼2.7 times greater than in most inventories and account for 24 ± 3% of national emissions. The spatial patterns of our emission fluxes and observed methane–propane correlations indicate that fossil fuel extraction and refining are major contributors (45 ± 13%) in the south-central United States. This result suggests that regional methane emissions due to fossil fuel extraction and processing could be 4.9 ± 2.6 times larger than in EDGAR, the most comprehensive global methane inventory. These results cast doubt on the US EPA’s recent decision to downscale its estimate of national natural gas emissions by 25–30%. Overall, we conclude that methane emissions associated with both the animal husbandry and fossil fuel industries have larger greenhouse gas impacts than indicated by existing inventories.

Pulsed airborne lidar measurements of atmospheric CO 2 column absorption

We report initial measurements of atmospheric CO2 column density using a pulsed airborne lidar operating at 1572 nm. It uses a lidar measurement technique being developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center as a candidate for the CO2 measurement in the Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days and Seasons (ASCENDS) space mission. The pulsed multiple-wavelength lidar approach offers several new capabilities with respect to passive spectrometer and other lidar techniques for high-precision CO2 column density measurements. We developed an airborne lidar using a fibre laser transmitter and photon counting detector, and conducted initial measurements of the CO2 column absorption during flights over Oklahoma in December 2008. The results show clear CO2 line shape and absorption signals. These follow the expected changes with aircraft altitude from 1.5 to 7.1 km, and are in good agreement with column number density estimates calculated from nearly coincident airborne in-situ measurements.

European greenhouse gas emissions estimated from continuous atmospheric measurements and radon 222 at Mace Head, Ireland

Flux estimates of CO2, CH4, N2O, and CFCs over western Europe have been inferred from continuous atmospheric records of these species at the atmospheric research station of Mace Head, Ireland. We use radon (222Rn) which has a fairly uniform source over continents as a reference compound to estimate unknown sources of other species. The correlation between each species and 222Rn is calculated for a suite of synoptic events that have been selected in the Mace Head record over the period 1996/97. In the following, we describe the method and its uncertainties, and we establish data selection criteria that minimize the influence of local sources over Ireland, in the vicinity of the station, in order to select synoptic events originating from western Europe. We estimate western European flux densities of 45–30 103 kg C km−2 month−1 during wintertime for CO2, of 4.8–3.5 103 kg CH4 km−2 yr−1, 475–330 kg N2O km−2 yr−1, 2.5–1.8 kg CFC-11 km−2 yr−1 for CFC-11, and 4.2–2.9 kg CFC-12 km−2 yr−1 for CFC-12. Our estimates are independent, although in good agreement with those produced by inventories, except for CFC-11 where our estimate is much lower than the inventory.

Influence of clouds and diffuse radiation on ecosystem‐atmosphere CO2 and CO18O exchanges

The influence of clouds and diffuse radiation on ecosystem-atmosphere CO 2 and CO 18 O exchanges Still, C.J., 3 Riley, W.J., 3 Biraud, S.C., 4 Noone, D.C., 4 Buenning, N.H., 5 Randerson J.T., 3 Torn, M.S., 6 Welker, J., 7 White, J.W.C., 7 Vachon, R., 8 Farquhar, G.D., and 9 Berry, J.A. 1. Geography Department, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA USA 2. Institute for Computational Earth System Science, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA USA 3. Earth Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA USA 4. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, and Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Science, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO USA 5. Earth System Science Department, University of California, Irvine, CA USA 6. Environment and Natural Resources Institute, University of Alaska, Anchorage, AK USA 7. INSTAAR, and Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Science, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO USA 8. Research School of Biological Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT Australia 9. Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Stanford, CA USA Index terms: 0426, 0321, 0414, 0454, 0428 Keywords: clouds, oxygen isotope discrimination, diffuse radiation, photosynthesis, isofluxes

A large increase in U.S. methane emissions over the past decade inferred from satellite data and surface observations

The global burden of atmospheric methane has been increasing over the past decade, but the causes are not well understood. National inventory estimates from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency indicate no significant trend in U.S. anthropogenic methane emissions from 2002 to present. Here we use satellite retrievals and surface observations of atmospheric methane to suggest that U.S. methane emissions have increased by more than 30% over the 2002–2014 period. The trend is largest in the central part of the country, but we cannot readily attribute it to any specific source type. This large increase in U.S. methane emissions could account for 30–60% of the global growth of atmospheric methane seen in the past decade.

Greenness indices from digital cameras predict the timing and seasonal dynamics of canopy‐scale photosynthesis

The proliferation of digital cameras co-located with eddy covariance instrumentation provides new opportunities to better understand the relationship between canopy phenology and the seasonality of canopy photosynthesis. In this paper we analyze the abilities and limitations of canopy color metrics measured by digital repeat photography to track seasonal canopy development and photosynthesis, determine phenological transition dates, and estimate intra-annual and interannual variability in canopy photosynthesis. We used 59 site-years of camera imagery and net ecosystem exchange measurements from 17 towers spanning three plant functional types (deciduous broadleaf forest, evergreen needleleaf forest, and grassland/crops) to derive color indices and estimate gross primary productivity (GPP). GPP was strongly correlated with greenness derived from camera imagery in all three plant functional types. Specifically, the beginning of the photosynthetic period in deciduous broadleaf forest and grassland/crops and the end of the photosynthetic period in grassland/crops were both correlated with changes in greenness; changes in redness were correlated with the end of the photosynthetic period in deciduous broadleaf forest. However, it was not possible to accurately identify the beginning or ending of the photosynthetic period using camera greenness in evergreen needleleaf forest. At deciduous broadleaf sites, anomalies in integrated greenness and total GPP were significantly correlated up to 60 days after the mean onset date for the start of spring. More generally, results from this work demonstrate that digital repeat photography can be used to quantify both the duration of the photosynthetically active period as well as total GPP in deciduous broadleaf forest and grassland/crops, but that new and different approaches are required before comparable results can be achieved in evergreen needleleaf forest.

Seasonal climatology of CO2 across North America from aircraft measurements in the NOAA/ESRL Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network

Seasonal spatial and temporal gradients for the CO2 mole fraction over North America are examined by creating a climatology from data collected 2004–2013 by the NOAA/ESRL Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network Aircraft Program relative to trends observed for CO2 at the Mauna Loa Observatory. The data analyzed are from measurements of air samples collected in specially fabricated flask packages at frequencies of days to months at 22 sites over continental North America and shipped back to Boulder, Colorado, for analysis. These measurements are calibrated relative to the CO2 World Meteorological Organization mole fraction scale. The climatologies of CO2 are compared to climatologies of CO, CH4, SF6, N2O (which are also measured from this sampling program), and winds to understand the dominant transport and chemical and biological processes driving changes in the spatial and temporal mole fractions of CO2 as air passes over continental North America. The measurements show that air masses coming off the Pacific on the west coast of North America are relatively homogeneous with altitude. As air masses flow eastward, the lower section from the surface to 4000 m above sea level (masl) becomes distinctly different from the 4000–8000 masl section of the column. This is due in part to the extent of the planetary boundary layer, which is directly impacted by continental sources and sinks, and to the vertical gradient in west-to-east wind speeds. The slowdown and southerly shift in winds at most sites during summer months amplify the summertime drawdown relative to what might be expected from local fluxes. This influence counteracts the dilution of summer time CO2 drawdown (known as the “rectifier effect”) as well as changes the surface influence “footprint” for each site. An early start to the summertime drawdown, a pronounced seasonal cycle in the column mean (500 to 8000 masl), and small vertical gradients in CO2, CO, CH4, SF6, and N2O at high-latitude western sites such as Poker Flat, Alaska, suggest recent influence of transport from southern latitudes and not local processes. This transport pathway provides a significant contribution to the large seasonal cycle observed in the high latitudes at all altitudes sampled. A sampling analysis of the NOAA/ESRL CarbonTracker model suggests that the average sampling resolution of 22 days is sufficient to get a robust estimate of mean seasonal cycle of CO2 during this 10 year period but insufficient to detect interannual variability in emissions over North America.

Regional CO2 and latent heat surface fluxes in the Southern Great Plains: Measurements, modeling, and scaling

[1] Characterizing net ecosystem exchanges (NEE) of CO2 and sensible and latent heat fluxes in heterogeneous landscapes is difficult, yet critical given expected changes in climate and land use. We report here a measurement and modeling study designed to improve our understanding of surface to atmosphere gas exchanges under very heterogeneous land cover in the mostly agricultural U.S. Southern Great Plains (SGP). We combined three years of site-level, eddy covariance measurements in several of the dominant land cover types with regional-scale climate data from the distributed Mesonet stations and Next Generation Weather Radar precipitation measurements to calibrate a land surface model of trace gas and energy exchanges (isotope-enabled land surface model (ISOLSM)). Yearly variations in vegetation cover distributions were estimated from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer normalized difference vegetation index and compared to regional and subregional vegetation cover type estimates from the U.S. Department of Agriculture census. We first applied ISOLSM at a 250 m spatial scale to account for vegetation cover type and leaf area variations that occur on hundred meter scales. Because of computational constraints, we developed a subsampling scheme within 10 km ‘‘macrocells’’ to perform these high-resolution simulations. We estimate that the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Climate Research Facility SGP region net CO2 exchange with the local atmosphere was � 240, � 340, and � 270 gC m �2 yr �1 (positive toward the atmosphere) in 2003, 2004, and 2005, respectively, with large seasonal variations. We also performed simulations using two scaling approaches at resolutions of 10, 30, 60, and 90 km. The scaling approach applied in current land surface models led to regional NEE biases of up to 50 and 20% in weekly and annual estimates, respectively. An important factor in causing these biases was the complex leaf area index (LAI) distribution within cover types. Biases in predicted weekly average regional latent heat fluxes were smaller than for NEE, but larger than for either ecosystem respiration or assimilation alone. However, spatial and diurnal variations of hundreds of W m �2 in latent heat fluxes were common. We conclude that, in this heterogeneous system, characterizing vegetation cover type and LAI at the scale of spatial variation are necessary for accurate estimates of bottom-up, regional NEE and surface energy fluxes.

Seasonal and interannual variability in 13C composition of ecosystem carbon fluxes in the U.S. Southern Great Plains

The δ13C value of terrestrial CO2 fluxes (δbio) provides important information for inverse models of CO2 sources and sinks as well as for studies of vegetation physiology, C3 and C4 vegetation fluxes, and ecosystem carbon residence times. From 2002.2009, we measured atmospheric CO2 concentration and δ13C-CO2 at four heights (2 to 60 m) in the U.S. Southern Great Plains (SGP) and computed δbio weekly. This region has a fine-scale mix of crops (primarily C3 winter wheat) and C4 pasture grasses. δbio had a large and consistent seasonal cycle of 6.8‰. Ensemble monthly mean δbio ranged from -25.8 ± 0.4 ‰ ( ± SE) in March to -20.1 ± 0.4‰ in July. Thus, C3 vegetation contributed about 80% of ecosystem fluxes in winter-spring and 50% in summer-fall. In contrast, prairie-soil δ13C values were about -15‰, indicating that historically the region was dominated by C4 vegetation and had more positive δbio values. Based on a land-surface model, isofluxes (δbio ± NEE) in this region have large seasonal amplitude because δbio and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) covary. Interannual variability in isoflux was driven by variability in NEE. The large seasonal amplitude in δbio and isoflux imply that carbon inverse analyses require accurate estimates of land cover and temporally resolved 13CO2 and CO2 fluxes.

U.S. emissions of HFC-134a derived for 2008–2012 from an extensive flask-air sampling network

U.S. national and regional emissions of HFC-134a are derived for 2008-2012 based on atmospheric observations from ground and aircraft sites across the U.S. and a newly developed regional inverse model. Synthetic data experiments were first conducted to optimize the model assimilation design and to assess model-data mismatch errors and prior flux error covariances computed using a maximum likelihood estimation technique. The synthetic data experiments also tested the sensitivity of derived national and regional emissions to a range of assumed prior emissions, with the goal of designing a system that was minimally reliant on the prior. We then explored the influence of additional sources of error in inversions with actual observations, such as those associated with background mole fractions and transport uncertainties. Estimated emissions of HFC-134a range from 52 to 61 Gg yr(-1) for the contiguous U.S. during 2008-2012 for inversions using air transport from Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model driven by the 12km resolution meteorogical data from North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM12) and all tested combinations of prior emissions and background mole fractions. Estimated emissions for 2008-2010 were 20% lower when specifying alternative transport from Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model driven by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) meteorology. Our estimates (for HYSPLIT-NAM12) are consistent with annual emissions reported by U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for the full study interval. The results suggest a 10-20% drop in U.S. national HFC-134a emission in 2009 coincident with a reduction in transportation-related fossil fuel CO2 emissions, perhaps related to the economic recession. All inversions show seasonal variation in national HFC-134a emissions in all years, with summer emissions greater than winter emissions by 20-50%.