Sébastien Lahaie

Predicting consumer behavior with Web search

Recent work has demonstrated that Web search volume can “predict the present,” meaning that it can be used to accurately track outcomes such as unemployment levels, auto and home sales, and disease prevalence in near real time. Here we show that what consumers are searching for online can also predict their collective future behavior days or even weeks in advance. Specifically we use search query volume to forecast the opening weekend box-office revenue for feature films, first-month sales of video games, and the rank of songs on the Billboard Hot 100 chart, finding in all cases that search counts are highly predictive of future outcomes. We also find that search counts generally boost the performance of baseline models fit on other publicly available data, where the boost varies from modest to dramatic, depending on the application in question. Finally, we reexamine previous work on tracking flu trends and show that, perhaps surprisingly, the utility of search data relative to a simple autoregressive model is modest. We conclude that in the absence of other data sources, or where small improvements in predictive performance are material, search queries provide a useful guide to the near future.

Algorithmic Game Theory: Sponsored Search Auctions

One of the more visible means by which the Internet has disrupted traditional activity is the manner in which advertising is sold. Offline, the price for advertising is typically set by negotiation or posted price. Online, much advertising is sold via auction. Most prominently, Web search engines like Google and Yahoo! auction space next to search results, a practice known as sponsored search. This chapter describes the auctions used and how the theory developed in earlier chapters of this book can shed light on their properties. We close with a brief discussion of unresolved issues associated with the sale of advertising on the Internet.

Applying learning algorithms to preference elicitation

We consider the parallels between the preference elicitation problem in combinatorial auctions and the problem of learning an unknown function from learning theory. We show that learning algorithms can be used as a basis for preference elicitation algorithms. The resulting elicitation algorithms perform a polynomial number of queries. We also give conditions under which the resulting algorithms have polynomial communication. Our conversion procedure allows us to generate combinatorial auction protocols from learning algorithms for polynomials, monotone DNF, and linear-threshold functions. In particular, we obtain an algorithm that elicits XOR bids with polynomial communication.

ICE: an iterative combinatorial exchange

We present the first design for a fully expressive iterative combinatorial exchange (ICE). The exchange incorporates a tree-based bidding language that is concise and expressive for CEs. Bidders specify lower and upper bounds on their value for different trades. These bounds allow price discovery and useful preference elicitation in early rounds, and allow termination with an efficient trade despite partial information on bidder valuations. All computation in the exchange is carefully optimized to exploit the structure of the bid-trees and to avoid enumerating trades. A proxied interpretation of a revealed-preference activity rule ensures progress across rounds. A VCG-based payment scheme that has been shown to mitigate opportunities for bargaining and strategic behavior is used to determine final payments. The exchange is fully implemented and in a validation phase.

Efficient ranking in sponsored search

In the standard model of sponsored search auctions, an ad is ranked according to the product of its bid and its estimated click-through rate (known as the quality score), where the estimates are taken as exact. This paper re-examines the form of the efficient ranking rule when uncertainty in click-through rates is taken into account. We provide a sufficient condition under which applying an exponent--strictly less than one--to the quality score improves expected efficiency. The condition holds for a large class of distributions known as natural exponential families, and for the lognormal distribution. An empirical analysis of Yahoos sponsored search logs reveals that exponent settings substantially smaller than one can be efficient for both high and low volume keywords, implying substantial deviations from the traditional ranking rule.

Contract Auctions for Sponsored Search

In sponsored search auctions advertisers typically pay a fixed amount per click that their advertisements receive. In particular, the advertiser and the publisher enter into a contract (e.g., the publisher displays the ad; the advertiser pays the publisher 10 cents per click), and each partys subjective value for such a contract depends on their estimated click-through rates (CTR) for the ad. Starting from this motivating example, we define and analyze a class of contract auctions that generalize the classical second price auction. As an application, we introduce impression-plus-click pricing for sponsored search, in which advertisers pay a fixed amount per impression plus an additional amount if their ad is clicked. Of note, when the advertisers estimated CTR is higher than the publishers estimated CTR, both parties find negative click payments advantageous, where the advertiser pays the publisher a premium for the impression but the publisher then pays the advertiser per click.

ICE: an expressive iterative combinatorial exchange

We present the design and analysis of the first fully expressive, iterative combinatorial exchange (ICE). The exchange incorporates a tree-based bidding language (TBBL) that is concise and expressive for CEs. Bidders specify lower and upper bounds in TBBL on their value for different trades and refine these bounds across rounds. These bounds allow price discovery and useful preference elicitation in early rounds, and allow termination with an efficient trade despite partial information on bidder valuations. All computation in the exchange is carefully optimized to exploit the structure of the bid-trees and to avoid enumerating trades. A proxied interpretation of a revealed-preference activity rule, coupled with simple linear prices, ensures progress across rounds. The exchange is fully implemented, and we give results demonstrating several aspects of its scalability and economic properties with simulated bidding strategies.

Information aggregation in exponential family markets

We consider the design of prediction market mechanisms known as automated market makers. We show that we can design these mechanisms via the mold of exponential family distributions, a popular and well-studied probability distribution template used in statistics. We give a full development of this relationship and explore a range of benefits. We draw connections between the information aggregation of market prices and the belief aggregation of learning agents that rely on exponential family distributions. We develop a natural analysis of the market behavior as well as the price equilibrium under the assumption that the traders exhibit risk aversion according to exponential utility. We also consider similar aspects under alternative models, such as budget-constrained traders.

Discrete choice models of bidder behavior in sponsored search

There are two kinds of bidders in sponsored search: most keep their bids static for long periods of time, but some do actively manage their bids. In this work we develop a model of bidder behavior in sponsored search that applies to both active and inactive bidders. Our observations on real keyword auction data show that advertisers see substantial variation in rank, even if their bids are static. This motivates a discrete choice approach that bypasses bids and directly models an advertisers (perhaps passive) choice of rank. Our models value per click estimates are consistent with basic theory which states that bids should not exceed values, even though bids are not directly used to fit the model. An empirical evaluation confirms that our model performs well in terms of predicting realized ranks and clicks.

A tractable combinatorial market maker using constraint generation

We present a new automated market maker for providing liquidity across multiple logically interrelated securities. Our approach lies somewhere between the industry standard---treating related securities as independent and thus not transmitting any information from one security to another---and a full combinatorial market maker for which pricing is computationally intractable. Our market maker, based on convex optimization and constraint generation, is tractable like independent securities yet propagates some information among related securities like a combinatorial market maker, resulting in more complete information aggregation. We prove several favorable properties of our scheme and evaluate its information aggregation performance on survey data involving hundreds of thousands of complex predictions about the 2008 U.S. presidential election.