Sébastien Van Bellegem

Identification and estimation by penalization in nonparametric instrumental regression

The nonparametric estimation of a regression function from conditional moment restrictions involving instrumental variables is considered. The rate of convergence of penalized estimators is studied in the case where the regression function is not identified from the conditional moment restriction. We also study the gain of modifying the penalty in the estimation, considering derivatives in the penalty. We analyze the effect of this modification on the identification of the regression function and the rate of convergence of its estimator.

LOCALLY ADAPTIVE ESTIMATION OF EVOLUTIONARY WAVELET SPECTRA

We introduce a wavelet-based model of local stationarity. This model enlarges the class of locally stationary wavelet processes and contains processes whose spectral density function may change very suddenly in time. A notion of time-varying wavelet spectrum is uniquely defined as a wavelet-type transform of the autocovariance function with respect to so-called autocorrelation wavelets. This leads to a natural representation of the autocovariance which is localized on scales. We propose a pointwise adaptive estimator of the time-varying spectrum. The behavior of the estimator studied in homogeneous and inhomogeneous regions of the wavelet spectrum.

School system evaluation by value added analysis under endogeneity

Value added is a common tool in educational research on effectiveness. It is often modeled as a (prediction of a) random effect in a specific hierarchical linear model. This paper shows that this modeling strategy is not valid when endogeneity is present. Endogeneity stems, for instance, from a correlation between the random effect in the hierarchical model and some of its covariates. This paper shows that this phenomenon is far from exceptional and can even be a generic problem when the covariates contain the prior score attainments, a typical situation in value added modeling. Starting from a general, model-free definition of value added, the paper derives an explicit expression of the value added in an endogeneous hierarchical linear Gaussian model. Inference on value added is proposed using an instrumental variable approach. The impact of endogeneity on the value added and the estimated value added is calculated accurately. This is also illustrated on a large data set of individual scores of about 200,000 students in Chile.

On the stop-loss and total variation distances between random sums

The purpose of this work is to provide upper bounds on the stop-loss and total variation distances between random sums. The main theoretical argument consists in defining discrete analogs of the classical ideal metrics considered by Rachev and Ruschendorf (Adv. Appl. Probab. 22 (1990) 350). An application in risk theory enhances the relevance of the approach proposed in this paper.

Discrete s-convex extremal distributions: theory and applications

Given a nondegenerate moment space with s fixed moments, explicit formulas for the discrete s-convex extremal distribution have been derived for s=1,2,3 (see [M. Denuit, Cl. Lefevre, Some new classes of stochastic order relations among arithmetic random variables, with applications in actuarial sciences, Insurance Math. Econom. 20 (1997) 197–214]). If s=4, only the maximal distribution is known (see [M. Denuit, Cl. Lefevre, M. Mesfioui, On s-convex stochastic extrema for arithmetic risks, Insurance Math. Econom. 25 (1999) 143–155]). This work goes beyond this limitation and proposes a method for deriving explicit expressions for general nonnegative integer s. In particular, we derive explicitly the discrete 4-convex minimal distribution. For illustration, we show how this theory allows one to bound the probability of extinction in a Galton–Watson branching process. The results are also applied to derive bounds for the probability of ruin in the compound binomial and Poisson insurance risk models.

On adaptive estimation for locally stationary wavelet processes and its applications

The class of locally stationary wavelet processes is a wavelet-based model for covariance nonstationary zero mean time series. This paper presents an algorithm for the pointwise adaptive estimation of their time-varying spectral density. The performance of the procedure is evaluated on simulated and real time series. Two applications of the procedure are also presented and evaluated on real data. The first is a test of local existence for the coefficients of the so-called wavelet periodogram. The second is a new test of covariance stationarity.

Forecasting the Malmquist productivity index

The Malmquist Productivity Index (MPI) suggests a convenient way of measuring the productivity change of a given unit between two consequent time periods. Until now, only a static approach for analyzing the MPI was available in the literature. However, this hides a potentially valuable information given by the evolution of productivity over time. In this paper, we introduce a dynamic procedure for forecasting the MPI. We compare several approaches and give credit to a method based on the assumption of circularity. Because the MPI is not circular, we present a new decomposition of the MPI, in which the time-varying indices are circular. Based on that decomposition, a new working dynamic forecasting procedure is proposed and illustrated. To construct prediction intervals of the MPI, we extend the bootstrap method in order to take into account potential serial correlation in the data. We illustrate all the new techniques described above by forecasting the productivity index of 17 OECD countries, constructed from their GDP, labor and capital stock.

Nonparametric Frontier Estimation from Noisy Data

A new nonparametric estimator of production frontiers is defined and studied when the data set of production units is contaminated by measurement error. The measurement error is assumed to be an additive normal random variable on the input variable, but its variance is unknown. The estimator is a modification of the m-frontier, which necessitates the computation of a consistent estimator of the conditional survival function of the input variable given the output variable. In this paper, the identification and the consistency of a new estimator of the survival function is proved in the presence of additive noise with unknown variance. The performance of the estimator is also studied through simulated data.