Sergei I. Zharkov

PREDICTION OF SOLAR ACTIVITY FROM SOLAR BACKGROUND MAGNETIC FIELD VARIATIONS IN CYCLES 21-23

A comprehensive spectral analysis of both the solar background magnetic field (SBMF) in cycles 21-23 and the sunspot magnetic field in cycle 23 reported in our recent paper showed the presence of two principal components (PCs) of SBMF having opposite polarity, e.g., originating in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. Over a duration of one solar cycle, both waves are found to travel with an increasing phase shift toward the northern hemisphere in odd cycles 21 and 23 and to the southern hemisphere in even cycle 22. These waves were linked to solar dynamo waves assumed to form in different layers of the solar interior. In this paper, for the first time, the PCs of SBMF in cycles 21-23 are analyzed with the symbolic regression technique using Hamiltonian principles, allowing us to uncover the underlying mathematical laws governing these complex waves in the SBMF presented by PCs and to extrapolate these PCs to cycles 24-26. The PCs predicted for cycle 24 very closely fit (with an accuracy better than 98%) the PCs derived from the SBMF observations in this cycle. This approach also predicts a strong reduction of the SBMF in cycles 25 and 26 and, thus, a reduction of the resulting solar activity. This decrease is accompanied by an increasing phase shift between the two predicted PCs (magnetic waves) in cycle 25 leading to their full separation into the opposite hemispheres in cycle 26. The variations of the modulus summary of the two PCs in SBMF reveals a remarkable resemblance to the average number of sunspots in cycles 21-24 and to predictions of reduced sunspot numbers compared to cycle 24: 80% in cycle 25 and 40% in cycle 26.

SPECTROSCOPIC SIGNATURES RELATED TO A SUNQUAKE

© 2015. The American Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.. The presence of flare-related acoustic emission (sunquakes (SQs)) in some flares, and only in specific locations within the flaring environment, represents a severe challenge to our current understanding of flare energy transport processes. In an attempt to contribute to understanding the origins of SQs we present a comparison of new spectral observations from Hinodes EUV imaging Spectrometer (EIS) and the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) of the chromosphere, transition region, and corona above an SQ, and compare them to the spectra observed in a part of the flaring region with no acoustic signature. Evidence for the SQ is determined using both time-distance and acoustic holography methods, and we find that unlike many previous SQ detections, the signal is rather dispersed, but that the time-distance and 6 and 7 mHz sources converge at the same spatial location. We also see some evidence for different evolution at different frequencies, with an earlier peak at 7 mHz than at 6 mHz. Using EIS and IRIS spectroscopic measurements we find that in this location, at the time of the 7 mHz peak the spectral emission is significantly more intense, shows larger velocity shifts and substantially broader profiles than in the location with no SQ, and there is a good correlation between blueshifted, hot coronal, hard X-ray (HXR), and redshifted chromospheric emission, consistent with the idea of a strong downward motion driven by rapid heating by nonthermal electrons and the formation of chromospheric shocks. Exploiting the diagnostic potential of the Mg ii triplet lines, we also find evidence for a single large temperature increase deep in the atmosphere, which is consistent with this scenario. The time of the 6 mHz and time-distance peak signal coincides with a secondary peak in the energy release process, but in this case we find no evidence of HXR emission in the quake location, instead finding very broad spectral lines, strongly shifted to the red, indicating the possible presence of a significant flux of downward propagating Alfven waves.