Sergey Tsukhlo

Оперативный Мониторинг Экономической Ситуации в России. Тенденции и Вызовы Социально-Экономического Развития 2015, #11 (Monitoring of Russia's Economic Outlook. Trends and Challenges of Socio-Economic Development 2015, #11)

Russian Abstract: Июнь �?тал в определенном отношении переломным ме�?�?цем в развитии нынешнего кризи�?а в ро�?�?ий�?кой �?кономике. По предварительным данным Ро�?�?тата, в июне прекратило�?ь углубление �?пада в промышленном производ�?тве: индек�? производ�?тва к июню 2014 г. �?о�?тавил 95,2%, в то врем�? как в мае в годовом выражении он �?о�?тавл�?л 94,5%. English Abstract: June 2015 became a critical month in the evolution of the current crisis in Russian economy. According to preliminary data released by Rosstat, in June exacerbation of the crisis in the real sector stopped: production index against June 2014 constituted 95.2%, meanwhile in May it constituted 94.5% in annual terms.

Russian Industry in December 2012

Analysis of the system of business surveys of the Gaidar Institute permits to say negative changes in the dynamic s of demand become regular for Russian industry where output growth in such a situation differs little from zero, prices depreciate, stocks of finished products are successfully controlled and revival of sales is expected next year.

Russian Industrial Enterprises (on the Basis of the Surveys) in 2012

The author studies the performance of Russian industrial enterprise in 2012. He focuses on the issue of the second wave of the crises hitting the Russian industry. The paper also deals with lending issues to the Russian industry in 2012. Problems of labor shortages hitting the Russian industry are investigated as well. Assessment of the government anti-crisis measures are also provided.

Assessing Forecasting Performance of Business Tendency Surveys During the Great Recession: Evidence for Russia

This study investigates usefulness of business tendency surveys in industrial sector for out-of-sample prediction of growth of industrial production in Russia. A special attention is paid to performance of survey-augmented models during the recent Great Recession 2008/2009. Using the real-time data vintages of the index of industrial production in Russia we conclude that the use of surveys positively contributes to boosting forecast accuracy of industrial production compared with forecasts based on a benchmark univariate autoregressive model.

Assessing Forecasting Performance of Business Tendency Surveys during the Great Recession

This study investigates usefulness of business tendency surveys in industrial sector for out-of- sample prediction of growth of industrial production in Russia. A special attention is paid to performance of survey-augmented models during the recent Great Recession 2008/2009. Using the real-time data vintages of the index of industrial production in Russia we conclude that the use of surveys positively contributes to boosting forecast accuracy of industrial production compared with forecasts based on a benchmark univariate autoregressive model.