Sergio Vicente-Serrano

Early prediction of crop production using drought indices at different time‐scales and remote sensing data: application in the Ebro Valley (north‐east Spain)

This Letter shows the results of early crop prediction from combined use of AVHRR‐NDVI data and drought indices at different time‐scales. The study was carried out in an agricultural municipality located in the Middle Ebro valley, one of the most arid regions in Europe. The methodology proposed here has allowed the prediction of wheat and barley production in February, four months before harvest. Moreover, the predictive models created have explained 88% and 82% of the temporal variability of wheat and barley production, respectively. This procedure could be very useful for managing crop production at a municipal level. Moreover, insurance companies could take advantage of the early prediction of crop losses, which are very frequent in this drought‐affected area.

Seasonal and annual daily precipitation risk maps for the Andean region of Peru

We develop for the first time maps of annual and seasonal extreme precipitation risk in the Andean region of Peru. For this purpose, we used the complete daily precipitation records existing in Peru. In each meteorological station, we obtained series of events of de-clustered daily intensity, total precipitation duration, total magnitude and dry-spell length. Using a peak-overthreshold approach we fitted the annual and seasonal series of these variables to a GeneralizedPareto distribution, obtained the distribution parameters and validated the performance of different thresholds to obtain reliable estimations of the precipitation probability. The parameters obtained in the different meteorological stations were mapped using a universal krigging approach using the elevation and the distance to the ocean as co-variables. Maps of parameters were validated using a jack-knife approach and maximum expected precipitation intensity, magnitude, duration and dryspell length estimated for a period of 25 and 50 years. The reliability of the spatial methodology was validated comparing observed precipitation and estimated by the spatial modelling in the different stations.

The influence of climate and land-cover scenarios on dam management strategies in a high water pressure catchment in North-east Spain

This research was funded by LIFE Programme| EU LIFE (LIFE12ENV/ES/000536). We would like to thank the Spanish Meteorological State Agency (AEMET), the Meteorologica Service of Catalonia (MeteoCat-SMC), and the Agencia Catalana del Aigua (ACA) for providing the climatic and streamflow databases used in this study. This work has been supported by research projects: “LIFE12 ENV/ES/000536-Demonstration and validation of innovative methodology for regional climate change adaptation in the Mediterranean area (LIFE MEDACC)”, financed by the LIFE programme of the European Commission; PCIN-2015-220 and CGL2014-52135-C03-01, financed by the Spanish Commission of Science and Technology and FEDER; IMDROFLOOD, financed by the Water Works 2014, INDECIS, which is part of ERA4CS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate and also funded by FORMAS (Sweden), DLR(Germany), BMWFW(Austria), IFD (Denmark), MINECO(Spain), and ANR (France), with co-funding by the European Union (Grant 690462).