Seth Stein

Effect of recent revisions to the geomagnetic reversal time scale on estimates of current plate motions

Recent revisions to the geomagnetic time scale indicate that global plate motion model NUVEL-1 should be modified for comparison with other rates of motion including those estimated from space geodetic measurements. The optimal recalibration, which is a compromise among slightly different calibrations appropriate for slow, medium, and fast rates of seafloor spreading, is to multiply NUVEL-1 angular velocities by a constant, α, of 0.9562. We refer to this simply recalibrated plate motion model as NUVEL-1A, and give correspondingly revised tables of angular velocities and uncertainties. Published work indicates that space geodetic rates are slower on average than those calculated from NUVEL-1 by 6±1%. This average discrepancy is reduced to less than 2% when space geodetic rates are instead compared with NUVEL-1A.

A Model for the Motion of the Philippine Sea Plate Consistent With NUVEL-1 and Geological Data

We investigate angular velocity vectors of the Philippine Sea (PH) plate relative to the adjacent major plates, Eurasia (EU) and Pacific (PA), and the smaller Caroline (CR) plate. Earthquake slip vector data along the Philippine Sea plate boundary are inverted, subject to the constraint that EU-PA motion equals that predicted by the global relative plate model NUVEL-1. The resulting solution fails to satisfy geological constraints along the Caroline-Pacific boundary: convergence along the Mussau Trench and divergence along the Sorol Trough. We then seek solutions satisfying both the CR-PA boundary conditions and the Philippine Sea slip vector data, by adjusting the PA-PH and EU-PH best fitting poles within their error ellipses. We also consider northern Honshu to be part of the North American plate and impose the constraint that the Philippine Sea plate subducts beneath northern Honshu along the Sagami Trough in a NNW-NW direction. Of the solutions satisfying these conditions, we select the best EU-PH as 48.2°N, 157.0°E, 1.09°/m.y., corresponding to a pole far from Japan and south of Kamchatka, and PA-PH, 1.2°N, 134.2°E, 1.00°/m.y. Predicted NA-PH and EU-PH convergence rates in central Honshu are consistent with estimated seismic slip rates. Previous estimates of the EU-PH pole close to central Honshu are inconsistent with extension within the Bonin backarc implied by earthquake slip vectors and NNW-NW convergence of the Bonin forearc at the Sagami Trough.

Metastable mantle phase transformations and deep earthquakes in subducting oceanic lithosphere

Earths deepest earthquakes occur as a population in subducting or previously subducted lithosphere at depths ranging from about 325 to 690 km. This depth interval closely brackets the mantle transition zone, characterized by rapid seismic velocity increases resulting from the transformation of upper mantle minerals to higher-pressure phases. Deep earthquakes thus provide the primary direct evidence for subduction of the lithosphere to these depths and allow us to investigate the deep thermal, thermodynamic, and mechanical ferment inside slabs. Numerical simulations of reaction rates show that the olivine → spinel transformation should be kinetically hindered in old, cold slabs descending into the transition zone. Thus wedge-shaped zones of metastable peridotite probably persist to depths of more than 600 km. Laboratory deformation experiments on some metastable minerals display a shear instability called transformational faulting. This instability involves sudden failure by localized superplasticity in thin shear zones where the metastable host mineral transforms to a denser, finer-grained phase. Hence in cold slabs, such faulting is expected for the polymorphic reactions in which olivine transforms to the spinel structure and clinoenstatite transforms to ilmenite. It is thus natural to hypothesize that deep earthquakes result from transformational faulting in metastable peridotite wedges within cold slabs. This consideration of the mineralogical states of slabs augments the traditional largely thermal view of slab processes and explains some previously enigmatic slab features. It explains why deep seismicity occurs only in the approximate depth range of the mantle transition zone, where minerals in downgoing slabs should transform to spinel and ilmenite structures. The onset of deep shocks at about 325 km is consistent with the onset of metastability near the equilibrium phase boundary in the slab. Even if a slab penetrates into the lower mantle, earthquakes should cease at depths near 700 km, because the seismogenic phase transformations in the slab are completed or can no longer occur. Substantial metastability is expected only in old, cold slabs, consistent with the observed restriction of deep earthquakes to those settings. Earthquakes should be restricted to the cold cores of slabs, as in any model in which the seismicity is temperature controlled, via the distribution of metastability. However, the geometries of recent large deep earthquakes pose a challenge for any such models. Transformational faulting may give insight into why deep shocks lack appreciable aftershocks and why their source characteristics, including focal mechanisms indicating localized shear failure rather than implosive deformation, are so similar to those of shallow earthquakes. Finally, metastable phase changes in slabs would produce an internal source of stress in addition to those due to the weight of the sinking slab. Such internal stresses may explain the occurrence of earthquakes in portions of lithosphere which have foundered to the bottom of the transition zone and/or are detached from subducting slabs. Metastability in downgoing slabs could have considerable geodynamic significance. Metastable wedges would reduce the negative buoyancy of slabs, decrease the driving force for subduction, and influence the state of stress in slabs. Heat released by metastable phase changes would raise temperatures within slabs and facilitate the transformation of spinel to the lower mantle mineral assemblage, causing slabs to equilibrate more rapidly with the ambient mantle and thus contribute to the cessation of deep seismicity. Because wedge formation should occur only for fast subducting slabs, it may act as a “parachute” and contribute to regulating plate speeds. Wedge formation would also have consequences for mantle evolution because the density of a slab stagnated near the bottom of the transition zone would increase as it heats up and the wedge transforms to denser spinel, favoring the subsequent sinking of the slab into the lower mantle.

Constraints on hydrothermal heat flux through the oceanic lithosphere from global heat flow

A significant discrepancy exists between the heat flow measured at the seafloor and the higher values predicted by thermal models of the cooling lithosphere. This discrepancy is generally interpreted as indicating that the upper oceanic crust is cooled significantly by hydrothermal circulation. The magnitude of this heat flow discrepancy is the primary datum used to estimate the volume of hydrothermal flow, and the variation in the discrepancy with lithospheric age is the primary constraint on how the hydrothermal flux is divided between near-ridge and off-ridge environments. The resulting estimates are important for investigation of both the thermal structure of the lithosphere and the chemistry of the oceans. We reevaluate the magnitude and age variation of the discrepancy using a global heat flow data set substantially larger than in earlier studies, and the GDH1 (Global Depth and Heat flow) model that better predicts the heat flow. We estimate that of the predicted global oceanic heat flux of 32×1012 W, 34% (11×1012 W) occurs by hydrothermal flow. Approximately 30% of the hydrothermal heat flux occurs in crust younger than 1 Ma, so the majority of this flux is off-ridge. These hydrothermal heat flux estimates are upper bounds, because heat flow measurements require sediment at the site and so are made preferentially at topographic lows, where heat flow may be depressed. Because the water temperature for the near-ridge flow exceeds that for the off-ridge flow, the near-ridge water flow will be even a smaller fraction of the total water flow. As a result, in estimating fluxes from geochemical data, use of the high water temperatures appropriate for the ridge axis may significantly overestimate the heat flux for an assumed water flux or underestimate the water flux for an assumed heat flux. Our data also permit improved estimates of the “sealing” age, defined as the age where the observed heat flow approximately equals that predicted, suggesting that hydrothermal heat transfer has largely ceased. Although earlier studies suggested major differences in sealing ages for different ocean basins, we find that the sealing ages for the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian oceans are similar and consistent with the sealing age for the entire data set, 65±10 Ma. The previous inference of a young (∼20 Ma) sealing age for the Pacific appears to have biased downward several previous estimates of the global hydrothermal flux. The heat flow data also provide indirect evidence for the mechanism by which the hydrothermal heat flux becomes small, which has often been ascribed to isolation of the igneous crust from seawater due to the hydraulic conductivity of the intervening sediment. We find, however, that even the least sedimented sites show the systematic increase of the ratio of observed to predicted heat flow with age, although the more sedimented sites have a younger sealing age. Moreover, the heat flow discrepancy persists at heavily sedimented sites until ∼50 Ma. It thus appears that ∼100–200 m of sediment is neither necessary nor sufficient to stop hydrothermal heat transfer. We therefore conclude that the age of the crust is the primary control on the fraction of heat transported by hydrothermal flow and that sediment thickness has a lesser effect. This inference is consistent with models in which hydrothermal flow decreases with age due to reduced crustal porosity and hence permeability.

Speed and size of the Sumatra earthquake

Our seismological results reveal that Indonesias devastating Sumatra–Andaman earthquake on 26 December 2004 was 2.5 times larger than initial reports suggested — second only to the 1960 Chilean earthquake in recorded magnitude. They indicate that it slowly released its energy by slip along a 1,200-km fault, generating a long rupture that contributed to the subsequent tsunami. Now that the entire rupture zone has slipped, the strain accumulated from the subduction of the Indian plate beneath the Burma microplate has been released, and there is no immediate danger of a similar tsunami being generated on this part of the plate boundary, although large earthquakes on segments to the south still present a threat.

Seismology: speed and size of the Sumatra earthquake.

Our seismological results reveal that Indonesias devastating Sumatra–Andaman earthquake on 26 December 2004 was 2.5 times larger than initial reports suggested — second only to the 1960 Chilean earthquake in recorded magnitude. They indicate that it slowly released its energy by slip along a 1,200-km fault, generating a long rupture that contributed to the subsequent tsunami. Now that the entire rupture zone has slipped, the strain accumulated from the subduction of the Indian plate beneath the Burma microplate has been released, and there is no immediate danger of a similar tsunami being generated on this part of the plate boundary, although large earthquakes on segments to the south still present a threat.

Can the Okhotsk Plate be discriminated from the North American plate

The plate geometry in northeast Asia has been a long-standing question, with a major issue being whether the Sea of Okhotsk and northern Japanese islands are better regarded as part of the North American plate or as a separate Okhotsk plate. This question has been difficult to resolve, because earthquake slip vectors along the Kuril and Japan trenches are consistent with either Pacific-North America or Pacific-Okhotsk plate motion. To circumvent this difficulty, we also use slip vectors of earthquakes along Sakhalin Island and the eastern margin of the Japan Sea and compare them to the predicted Eurasia-Okhotsk and Eurasia-North America motions. For a model with a separate Okhotsk plate, we invert 10 Eurasia-Okhotsk and 255 Pacific-Okhotsk slip vectors with Pacific-North America and Eurasia-North America NUVEL-1 data. Alternatively, for a model without an Okhotsk plate, those Eurasia-Okhotsk and Pacific-Okhotsk data are regarded as Eurasia-North America and Pacific-North America data, respectively. The model with an Okhotsk plate fits the data better than one in which this region is treated as part of the North American plate. Because the improved fit exceeds that expected purely from the additional plate, the data indicate that the Okhotsk plate can be resolved from the North American plate. The motions on the Okhotsk plates boundaries predicted by the best fitting Euler vectors are generally consistent with the recent tectonics. The Eurasia-Okhotsk pole is located at northernmost Sakhalin Island and predicts right-lateral strike slip motion on the NNE striking fault plane of the May 27, 1995, Neftegorsk earthquake, consistent with the centroid moment tensor focal mechanism and the surface faulting. Along the northern boundary of the Okhotsk plate, the North America-Okhotsk Euler vector predicts left-lateral strike slip, consistent with the observed focal mechanisms. On the NW boundary of the Okhotsk plate, the Eurasia-Okhotsk Euler vector predicts E-W extension, discordant with the limited focal mechanisms and geological data. This misfit may imply that another plate is necessary west of the Magadan region in southeast Siberia, but this possibility is hard to confirm without further data, such as might be obtained from space-based geodesy.

Statistical tests of additional plate boundaries from plate motion inversions

We have investigated the application of the F-ratio test, a standard statistical technique, to the results of relative plate motion inversions. The method tests whether the improvement in fit of the model to the data resulting from the addition of another plate to the model is greater than that expected purely by chance. This approach appears to be useful in determining whether additional plate boundaries are justified. We confirm previous results favoring separate North American and South American plates with a boundary located between 30°N and the equator. Using Chases global relative motion data, we show that in addition to separate West African and Somalian plates, separate West Indian and Australian plates, with a best-fitting boundary between 70°E and 90°E, can be resolved. These results are generally consistent with the observation that the Indian plates internal deformation extends somewhat westward of the Ninetyeast Ridge. The relative motion pole is similar to Minster and Jordans and predicts the NW-SE compression observed in earthquake mechanisms near the Ninetyeast Ridge.

Ultralong Period Seismic Study of the December 2004 Indian Ocean Earthquake and Implications for Regional Tectonics and the Subduction Process

Analysis of the earths longest period normal modes shows that the December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake was much larger (Mw 9.3) than ini- tially inferred from surface-wave data and involved slip on a much longer fault than initially inferred from body-wave data. The seismic moment and relative excitation of the normal modes indicate that the entire aftershock zone ruptured, consistent with the large tsunami amplitudes in Thailand, Sri Lanka, and India. An apparent increase in seismic moment with period results from interference between parts of the fault. The earthquake resulted from subduction of the Indian plate beneath the Burma microplate, a sliver plate between the Indian and Sunda plates. Hence, the rate and direction of convergence depends on the motion of the Burma plate, which is not well known. Convergence would be highly oblique if the rate of motion between Burma and Sunda is that inferred from spreading in the Andaman Sea, and less if a slower rate is inferred from the Sagaing fault. The December earthquake was much larger than expected from a previously proposed relation, based on the idea of seismic coupling, in which such earthquakes occur only when young lithosphere subducts rapidly. Moreover, a global reanalysis finds little support for this correlation. Hence, we suspect that much of the apparent differences between subduction zones, such as some trench segments but not others being prone to M w 8.5 events and hence oceanwide tsunamis, may reflect the short earthquake history sampled. This possi- bility is supported by the variability in rupture mode at individual trench segments.

Decelerating Nazca-South America and Nazca-Pacific Plate motions

Space geodetic estimates of the rate of Nazca-South America convergence and Nazca-Pacific spreading averaging over several years show that present day rates are significantly slower than the 3 million year average NUVEL-1A model. The implied rates of deceleration are consistent with longer term trends extending back to at least 20 Ma, about the time of initiation of Andes growth, and may reflect consequences of ongoing subduction and construction of the Andes, e.g., increased friction and viscous drag on the subducted slab as the leading edge of South America thickens.