Shakti Suryavanshi

Long-term historic changes in climatic variables of Betwa Basin, India

In this study, trend analyses of historic past climatic variables were investigated for the Betwa basin located in Central India. In the serially independent climatic variables, Mann–Kendall test (MK test) was applied to the original sample data. However, in the serially correlated series, pre-whitening is used before employing the MK test. The long-term trend analysis showed several of the meteorological stations to exhibit a decreasing trend in annual and seasonal precipitation in the study area. Seasonal and yearly numbers of rainy days are decreased. However, onset of effective monsoon (except for Shivpuri and Tikamgarh stations) did not show any trend during the study period. For maximum temperature, five out of 12 stations showed a decreasing trend in monsoon season whereas almost all other stations showed an increasing trend in winter and no trend in summer season. For minimum temperature, only two stations of the basin showed a decreasing trend in monsoon and all other stations exhibited a significant increase in winter and summer season. The increase of winter temperature may adversely affect the growth of Rabi crop (wheat and mustard) in the study area. Potential evopotranspiration (PET) did not show any trend in monsoon, except for Jalaun and Jhansi stations, showing decreasing trends. Raisen and Vidisha stations showed an increasing trend in winter only, and the trend for other stations were random in nature. In summer, five out of 12 stations showed an increasing trend in PET. Results of this study can be employed in preparation of water resources development and management plan in the Betwa Basin.

Hydrological simulation of the Betwa River basin (India) using the SWAT model

ABSTRACT A seasonal water budget analysis was carried out to quantify various components of the hydrological cycle using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for the Betwa River basin (43 500 km2) in central India. The model results were satisfactory in calibration and validation. The seasonal water budget analysis showed that about 90% of annual rainfall and 97% of annual runoff occurred in the monsoon season. A seasonal linear trend analysis was carried out to detect trends in the water balance components of the basin for the period 1973–2001. In the monsoon season, an increasing trend in rainfall and a decreasing trend in ET were observed; this resulted in an increasing trend in groundwater storage and surface runoff. The winter season followed almost the same pattern. A decreasing trend was observed in summer season rainfall. The study evokes the need for conservation structures in the study area to reduce monsoon runoff and conserve it for basin requirements in water-scarce seasons. EDITOR Z.W. Kundzewicz ASSOCIATE EDITOR F. Hattermann