Shaohua Gu

Heat Waves and Morbidity: Current Knowledge and Further Direction-A Comprehensive Literature Review

In the past few decades, several devastating heat wave events have significantly challenged public health. As these events are projected to increase in both severity and frequency in the future, it is important to assess the relationship between heat waves and the health indicators that can be used in the early warning systems to guide the public health response. Yet there is a knowledge gap in the impact of heat waves on morbidity. In this study, a comprehensive review was conducted to assess the relationship between heat waves and different morbidity indicators, and to identify the vulnerable populations. The PubMed and ScienceDirect database were used to retrieve published literature in English from 1985 to 2014 on the relationship between heat waves and morbidity, and the following MeSH terms and keywords were used: heat wave, heat wave, morbidity, hospital admission, hospitalization, emergency call, emergency medical services, and outpatient visit. Thirty-three studies were included in the final analysis. Most studies found a short-term negative health impact of heat waves on morbidity. The elderly, children, and males were more vulnerable during heat waves, and the medical care demand increased for those with existing chronic diseases. Some social factors, such as lower socioeconomic status, can contribute to heat-susceptibility. In terms of study methods and heat wave definitions, there remain inconsistencies and uncertainties. Relevant policies and guidelines need to be developed to protect vulnerable populations. Morbidity indicators should be adopted in heat wave early warning systems in order to guide the effective implementation of public health actions.

Predicting unprecedented dengue outbreak using imported cases and climatic factors in Guangzhou, 2014.

Introduction Dengue is endemic in more than 100 countries, mainly in tropical and subtropical regions, and the incidence has increased 30-fold in the past 50 years. The situation of dengue in China has become more and more severe, with an unprecedented dengue outbreak hitting south China in 2014. Building a dengue early warning system is therefore urgent and necessary for timely and effective response. Methodology and Principal Findings In the study we developed a time series Poisson multivariate regression model using imported dengue cases, local minimum temperature and accumulative precipitation to predict the dengue occurrence in four districts of Guangzhou, China. The time series data were decomposed into seasonal, trend and remainder components using a seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on loess (STL). The time lag of climatic factors included in the model was chosen based on Spearman correlation analysis. Autocorrelation, seasonality and long-term trend were controlled in the model. A best model was selected and validated using Generalized Cross Validation (GCV) score and residual test. The data from March 2006 to December 2012 were used to develop the model while the data from January 2013 to September 2014 were employed to validate the model. Time series Poisson model showed that imported cases in the previous month, minimum temperature in the previous month and accumulative precipitation with three month lags could project the dengue outbreaks occurred in 2013 and 2014 after controlling the autocorrelation, seasonality and long-term trend. Conclusions Together with the sole transmission vector Aedes albopictus, imported cases, monthly minimum temperature and monthly accumulative precipitation may be used to develop a low-cost effective early warning system.

The effects of summer temperature and heat waves on heat-related illness in a coastal city of China, 2011-2013.

BACKGROUND Devastating health effects from recent heat waves in China have highlighted the importance of understanding health consequences from extreme heat stress. Despite the increasing mortality from extreme heat, very limited studies have quantified the effects of summer extreme temperature on heat-related illnesses in China. METHODS The associations between extreme heat and daily heat-related illnesses that occurred in the summers of 2011-2013 in Ningbo, China, have been examined, using a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) based on 3862 cases. The excess morbidities of heat-related illness during each heat wave have been calculated separately and the cumulative heat wave effects on age-, sex-, and cause-specific illnesses in each year along lags have been estimated as well. RESULTS After controlling the effect of relative humidity, it is found that maximum temperature, rather than heat index, was a better predictor of heat-related illnesses in summers. A positive association between maximum temperatures and occurrence of heat-related diseases was apparent, especially at short lag effects. Six heat waves during the period of 2011-2013 were identified and all associated with excess heat-related illnesses. Relative to the average values for the corresponding periods in 2011 and 2012, a total estimated 679 extra heat-related illnesses occurred during three heat waves in 2013. The significant prolonged heat wave effects on total heat-related illnesses during heat waves in three study years have also been identified. The strongest cumulative effect of heat waves was on severe heat diseases in 2013, with a 10-fold increased risk. More males than females, individuals with more severe forms of illness, were more affected by the heat. However, all age groups were vulnerable. CONCLUSIONS Recent heat waves had a substantial and delayed effect on heat illnesses in Ningbo. Relevant active well-organized public health initiatives should be implemented to reduce the adverse effects of heat extremes on the illnesses.

The interactive effects between high temperature and air pollution on mortality: A time-series analysis in Hefei, China

Recent evidence suggests that there may be an interaction between air pollution and heat on mortality, which is pertinent in the context of global climate change. We sought to examine this interaction in Hefei, a hot and polluted Chinese city. We conducted time-series analyses using daily mortality, air pollutant concentration (including particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter <10μm (PM10), sulphur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2)), and temperature data from 2008 to 2014. We applied quasi-Poisson regression models with natural cubic splines and examined the interactive effects using temperature-stratified models. Subgroup analyses were conducted by age, gender, and educational levels. We observed consistently stronger associations between air pollutants and mortality at high temperatures than at medium temperatures. These differences were statistically significant for the associations between PM10 and non-accidental mortality and between all pollutants studied and respiratory mortality. Mean percentage increases in non-accidental mortality per 10μg/m3 at high temperatures were 2.40% (95% confidence interval: 0.64 to 4.20) for PM10, 7.77% (0.60 to 15.00) for SO2, and 6.83% (-1.37 to 15.08) for NO2. The estimates for PM10 were 3.40% (0.96 to 5.90) in females and 4.21% (1.44 to 7.05) in the illiterate, marking them as more vulnerable. No clear trend was identified by age. We observed an interaction between air pollutants and high temperature on mortality in Hefei, which was stronger in females and the illiterate. This may be due to differences in behaviours affecting personal exposure to high temperatures and has potential policy implications.

Mortality as a function of dust-haze in China: a multi-city time-series study

BACKGROUND In recent years, hazardous dust-hazehas become one of the most catastrophic weather events in China. Reliable estimation of the burden of dust-haze on health has implications for implementation of mitigation measures. We did a time-series study to examine the health effects of dust-haze in China. METHODS A dust-haze day was defined ashaving daily visibility of less than 10 km, no rainfall, and relative humidity of less than 80%. A two-stage analysis was used to assess the effect of dust-haze on city-specific, cause-specific, sex-specific, and age-specific mortality in ten Chinese provincial capitals. Daily counts of deaths, further stratified by regions and individual characteristics, were obtained from the China Information System of Death Register and Report of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention; daily meteorological data were obtained from the China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System. A distributed lag model was applied to estimate the city-specific delayed effects of dust-haze on mortality, after controlling for long-term trend, seasonality, day ofthe week, and weather conditions. The maximum lag was set to 14 days for the lagged effects of dust-haze. The pooled effects across cities were then obtained using meta-analysis, based on restricted maximum likelihood estimation. This study was approved by the Ethics Committee of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (no 201214). FINDINGS The average number of days with dust-haze was 67 days (SD 49) (18·36%) per year, ranging from 17 days (4·7%) in Guangzhou to 139 days (38·08%) in Hefei. Generally, the effects of dust-haze were immediate and limited to 7 days, with mortality displacement (harvesting effect) during lag 7-12 days. The relationships between dust-haze and mortality significantly varied by city (Cochranes Q=40·725, I2=84·26% p<0·0001. The pooled relative risk of mortality associated with dust-haze over a lag time of 0-14 days was 1·05 (95%CI 1·01-1·09), 1·04(0·96-1·13), 1·03(0·98-1·09), and 1·15 (1·03-1·29) for non-accidental, respiratory, cardiovascular, and diabetes-related mortality, respectively. Significant effects of dust-haze were found among females compared with males (relative risk 1·07, 95% CI 1·02-1·14 vs 1·02, 0·98-1·06) and in people aged 75 years or above compared with younger people (1·05, 1·00-1·09 vs 1·03, 0·98-1·08). INTERPRETATION Dust-haze has considerable effects on mortality risk in various cities in China. This study strongly supports the need for effective measures to reduce air pollution, and protective actions for vulnerable populations, to reduce adverse effects. FUNDING National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) (Grant No 2012CB955504). C-Q Ou was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (81573249). No funding bodies had any role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the abstract.

Perceptions of Health Co-Benefits in Relation to Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions: A Survey among Urban Residents in Three Chinese Cities

Limited information is available on the perceptions of stakeholders concerning the health co-benefits of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions. The purpose of this study was to investigate the perceptions of urban residents on the health co-benefits involving GHG abatement and related influencing factors in three cities in China. Beijing, Ningbo and Guangzhou were selected for this survey. Participants were recruited from randomly chosen committees, following quotas for gender and age in proportion to the respective population shares. Chi-square or Fisher’s exact tests were employed to examine the associations between socio-demographic variables and individuals’ perceptions of the health co-benefits related to GHG mitigation. Unconditional logistic regression analysis was performed to investigate the influencing factors of respondents’ awareness about the health co-benefits. A total of 1159 participants were included in the final analysis, of which 15.9% reported that they were familiar with the health co-benefits of GHG emission reductions. Those who were younger, more educated, with higher family income, and with registered urban residence, were more likely to be aware of health co-benefits. Age, attitudes toward air pollution and governmental efforts to improve air quality, suffering from respiratory diseases, and following low carbon lifestyles are significant predictors of respondents’ perceptions on the health co-benefits. These findings may not only provide information to policy-makers to develop and implement public welcome policies of GHG mitigation, but also help to bridge the gap between GHG mitigation measures and public engagement as well as willingness to change health-related behaviors.

Community Knowledge and Experience of Mosquitoes and Personal Prevention and Control Practices in Lhasa, Tibet

Since 2009, great public attention has been paid in Lhasa City (Tibet, China) to mosquito bites and accompanying inflammatory complications. However, the potential contribution of knowledge levels, experiences, disease control and preventive practices (KEP) towards mosquitoes has not received much attention. To investigate community KEP concerning mosquitoes in Lhasa, a cross-sectional survey was undertaken in four sub-districts of urban Lhasa in 2012. Questionnaires were designed to collect information regarding socio-demographics and KEP concerning the harmful effects of mosquitoes on participants. The scoring for KEP was developed after consultation of literature. A total of 591 eligible questionnaires were examined. The majority of respondents were female (61.8%) with a mean age of 46 years. Nearly all of the respondents were of Tibetan nationality (97.4%) and living in registered native households (92.7%), who have less than primary school education. The averages of overall score, knowledge score, experience score, and practice score were 9.23, 4.53, 1.80, 2.90, respectively. The registered household with the highest overall score, knowledge score and practice score was non-native. Female subjects with monthly incomes between 1000 and 3000 RMB had higher experience scores. The correlation analysis revealed that significant positive linear correlations existed between knowledge and experience, knowledge and practices, and experience and practices towards mosquitoes. Past experiences with mosquitoes can result in a better knowledge of effective mosquito control practices in the present and the future. Though the average of overall scores related to mosquitoes is high among the participants in Lhasa, however, the knowledge about the ecological habits of mosquitoes should be strengthened. The findings in this study may help to develop strategies and measures of mosquito and mosquito-borne diseases in the future, not only in Lhasa, but also in similar altitude, latitude and longitude regions worldwide.

Public health co-benefits of greenhouse gas emissions reduction: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES Public health co-benefits from curbing climate change can make greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies more attractive and increase their implementation. The purpose of this systematic review is to summarize the evidence of these health co-benefits to improve our understanding of the mitigation measures involved, potential mechanisms, and relevant uncertainties. METHODS A comprehensive search for peer-reviewed studies published in English was conducted using the primary electronic databases. Reference lists from these articles were reviewed and manual searches were performed to supplement relevant studies. The identified records were screened based on inclusion criteria. We extracted data from the final retrieved papers using a pre-designed data extraction form and a quality assessment was conducted. The studies were heterogeneities, so meta-analysis was not possible and instead evidence was synthesized using narrative summaries. RESULTS Thirty-six studies were identified. We identified GHG mitigation strategies in five domains - energy generation, transportation, food and agriculture, households, and industry and economy - which usually, although not always, bring co-benefits for public health. These health gains are likely to be multiplied by comprehensive measures that include more than one sectors. CONCLUSIONS GHG mitigation strategies can bring about substantial and possibly cost-effective public health co-benefits. These findings are highly relevant to policy makers and other stakeholders since they point to the compounding value of taking concerted action against climate change and air pollution.

The Short-Term Effects of Visibility and Haze on Mortality in a Coastal City of China: A Time-Series Study

Few studies have been conducted to investigate the acute health effects of visibility and haze, which may be regarded as proxy indicators of ambient air pollution. We used a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) combined with quasi-Poisson regression to estimate the relationship between visibility, haze and mortality in Ningbo, a coastal city of China. We found that the mortality risk of visibility was statistically significant only on the current day, while the risk of haze and PM10 peaked on the second day and could last for three days. When the visibility was less than 10 km, each 1 km decrease of visibility at lag 0 day was associated with a 0.78% (95% CI: 0.22–1.36%) increase in total mortality and a 1.61% (95% CI: 0.39–2.85%) increase in respiratory mortality. The excess risk of haze at lag 0–2 days on total mortality, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality was 7.76% (95% CI: 3.29–12.42%), 7.73% (95% CI: 0.12–15.92%) and 17.77% (95% CI: 7.64–28.86%), respectively. Greater effects of air pollution were observed during the cold season than in the warm season, and the elderly were at higher risk compared to youths. The effects of visibility and haze were attenuated by single pollutants. These findings suggest that visibility and haze could be used as surrogates of air quality where pollutant data are scarce, and strengthen the evidence to develop policy to control air pollution and protect vulnerable populations.