Shengchuan Zhao

Road Traffic Accidents in China

China has been experiencing dynamic urbanization and motorization due to rapid economic growth. During the period 1980-2005, the overall GDP increased by approximately 40 times, averaging around 10% growth per annum; the urban population tripled while the total population increased by 30%. The numbers of motor vehicles and motor vehicle drivers increased approximately 18 times and 33 times respectively. During the last 20 years a road network has steadily been formed. Expressways have been rapidly developed since 1988. In 1988 the first 18.5 km-long Shanghai- Jiading Expressway was completed and opened to traffic. In less than 20 years the total length of expressways reached 41,005 km in 2005. The central governmentuapproved in January 2005 the National Expressway Network Master plan comprising 85,000 km (so called “7918” plan), which will be completed in the next 20-30 years. Due to the improvement of the road infrastructure and rapid motorization, the amount of road transport has kept increasing since 1980. The share of passenger-km by highway has increasedufrom 32.0% in 1980 to 53.2% in 2005, while the share of freight ton-km by highway has increased from 6.4% in 1980 to 10.8% in 2005. Railway and waterway are still major modes for transporting long-distance heavy cargo.

Elasticity-based Model Applies in the Forecasting of Highway Induced Traffic

Abstract Induced traffic is a key part of travel demand analysis, which directly affects the urban transportation planning. The purpose of this paper is to address the question of how much new or improved road induces extra traffic. Based on the concept and mechanism of induced traffic, the factors that affect vehicle-miles of travel (VMT) are discussed. The elasticity-based model which is in general use is applied in the calculation of the provinces and cities of China. In accordance with the data collection (from 1990 to 2008), induced traffic is analyzed. And then the elastic coefficient of China and six districts (north China, east China, southwest China, south central China, northeast China, and northwest China) between VMT and lane-miles is estimated to be 0.16-0.51. Considering time delay, the elastic coefficient with one year lag and two year lag is about 0.22-0.54. Such data analysis not only confirms the existence of induced traffic, but also provides substantive recommendations to urban transportation planning.

The Value of Statistical Life in Road Traffic Based on Logit Model

The value of a statistical life (VOSL) in road traffic is an important index for economic evaluation on road safety programs. The VOSL model is established based on the binary Logit model. Then the route-choice questionnaire is designed based on the stated choice method (SCM) and the orthogonal experiment method. The survey is implemented regarding Dalian private drivers as respondents. Finally, the model is estimated based on the SCM data by Gauss. The result indicates that the VOSL in road traffic for Dalian private drivers is about 360,000 RMB, and the model has a high accuracy. Moreover, the VOSL in road traffic is significantly influenced by four individual characteristics such as ones monthly income, traffic experience, car insurance and education background.

A Study on the Development of Urban Environment Measure’s Evaluation Model

This paper develops a comprehensive model (MERS) to evaluate urban environmental measures which contribute to an eco-friendly city. The characteristic of MERS is a practical model which is based on Person Trip Survey data. MERS has two sub-models, Urban Activity Model and Evaluation Model. Urban Activity Model consists of Land Use Model and Transportation Model. Land Use Model estimates the volume of employee and populations. Transportation Model estimates transportation demand by mode, and car traffic volume on each road links. Evaluation Model consists of environmental evaluation model, quality of life evaluation model and economic evaluation model. Evaluation results can be represented on mesh unit or road network links. This paper will explain the framework of MERS and the results of a case study.

Urban Form and Rail Transit Development in Dalian, China

Dalian, known as ‘the Pearl of Northern China,’ is located on the east coast of Eurasia and the southern tip of the Liaodong Peninsula. It stretches from 320°58′ to 123°31′ east longitude and 38°43′ to 40°10′ north latitude, with the Yellow Sea on the east, Bohai Sea on the west. Because of the superb geographical location, Dalian serves as a marine gateway to Beijing and vast northern China.

Evaluation of Programs of Regional Distribution Center Location

This paper puts the Delphi-AHP-Grey Interconnect-Fuzzy Evaluation (DHGF) theory into the evaluation of the regional distribution center (RDC) location. It establishes the evaluation index system, defines the evaluation ratings, and obtains the evaluation results of different location programs. The results show that DHGF can substantially eliminate the shortcomings of subjectivity and provide a more objective evaluation result. Meanwhile, the DHGF model can find not only the optimal location program, but also tell us whether the alternatives exist and what they are.